Burdensome-Upward — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$854

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

51.7%

Resolved

647

Trades

1,192

lifetime

Volume

$26.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 10-30 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 41% -$573

Other

5% 16% -$281

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		-95	-$4	3¢	$-3	+$1	09-16 15:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	9	$939	221	1,628	-1,407	Up	-$663	04-30 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$649	607	485	+122	Up	+$212	05-18 22:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	5	$621	6,223	6,223	+0	No	+$1	05-14 02:32
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$530	1,042	0	+1,042	Down	-$530	05-30 20:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	14	$510	969	142	+827	Up	+$5	05-18 19:54
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	23	$498	523	302	+221	Up	+$122	04-30 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET	4	$430	1,261	0	+1,261	Down	-$430	05-28 05:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET	5	$419	2,716	0	+2,716	Up	-$419	05-21 02:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$406	442	337	+106	Down	+$153	05-18 15:09
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	14	$397	246	1,132	-886	Up	-$766	04-30 02:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET	1	$372	688	0	+688	Up	+$317	05-27 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	2	$362	474	379	+96	Up	+$211	05-18 14:37
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	52	$343	757	128	+629	Up	+$389	04-29 17:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	1	$325	773	0	+773	Down	-$325	05-18 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12PM ET	3	$321	261	208	+53	Up	+$108	05-18 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	5	$292	2,221	0	+2,221	Down	-$292	05-17 23:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	2	$287	625	0	+625	Up	+$338	05-29 04:09
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$282	486	0	+486	Down	+$204	05-26 16:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$276	332	265	+67	Up	+$170	05-17 23:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET	1	$269	463	0	+463	Down	-$269	06-02 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET	1	$254	507	0	+507	Down	-$254	06-02 05:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	1	$232	515	0	+515	Down	-$232	05-29 01:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	3	$214	451	8	+443	Up	+$242	05-18 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11PM ET	1	$211	554	0	+554	Up	-$211	05-21 03:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	3	$206	360	60	+300	Up	+$182	05-18 07:32
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	3	$179	524	0	+524	Up	-$179	05-25 09:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET	3	$178	476	0	+476	Down	+$218	05-11 18:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	36	$176	468	62	+406	Up	+$272	04-29 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12AM ET	1	$174	458	0	+458	Down	+$284	05-21 04:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	3	$154	176	141	+35	Down	+$51	05-18 14:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 00:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	52	46¢	$24	0x51db90…
10-29 20:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x1b35a5…
10-27 22:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x21a9fc…
10-27 22:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x217830…
10-27 22:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0xec667e…
10-27 22:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x25b82e…
10-27 21:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x961552…
10-27 21:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	57¢	$12	0x8e9440…
10-27 21:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x252dc3…
10-27 05:32:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	68¢	$24	0x3b01bc…
10-25 13:36:47	XRP Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x081934…
10-20 16:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x9fe813…
10-20 16:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x780f57…
10-20 16:13:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xba3d48…
10-18 16:18:30	Solana Up or Down - October 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x0b8513…
10-18 16:01:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x418ce1…
10-18 16:01:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	63¢	$9	0x2765f4…
10-16 08:00:40	XRP Up or Down - October 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xd27921…
10-14 18:24:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-14 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	38	56¢	$21	0x5fe3f7…
10-14 18:24:09	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-14 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x5b70b7…
10-14 16:01:52	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-14 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x166925…
10-14 12:30:57	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-14 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	39	29¢	$11	0xabb226…
10-13 16:02:42	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-13 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x9686f4…
10-13 16:00:39	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-13 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xaa896a…
10-13 12:02:56	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-13 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x50c36a…
10-13 12:02:56	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-13 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x480c5e…
10-13 08:00:32	XRP Up or Down - October 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0xc74028…
10-09 16:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x1d2cc3…
10-09 05:48:14	XRP Up or Down - October 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x75afca…
10-06 13:35:36	XRP Up or Down - October 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xfd768a…
10-06 13:35:36	XRP Up or Down - October 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x47341a…
10-06 10:11:15	Solana Up or Down - October 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xdb4206…
10-06 08:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xba971a…
10-06 03:52:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xe5835f…
10-06 03:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11PM ET	Up	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x2c5953…
10-06 03:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x050004…
10-06 03:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x03bf3d…
10-06 03:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xb3fdd6…
10-05 04:25:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	31	21¢	$6	0xb4ec4f…
10-05 04:25:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x881c80…
10-05 03:46:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	37	30¢	$11	0xd72c57…
10-05 03:46:55	bitcoin up or down october 4 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xd44924…
10-05 03:40:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 03:30 UTC	Up	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x8fe0b4…
10-05 03:40:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x8b35ae…
10-05 03:40:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-05 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x6f01d9…
10-05 00:51:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	35	41¢	$15	0x87dcb6…
10-05 00:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x672dfa…
10-04 03:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET	Down	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0xe22622…
10-04 03:55:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	27	42¢	$11	0xd5c1f2…
10-04 03:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x5a8e90…
10-04 03:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x2c4268…
10-04 03:45:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 03:45 UTC	Up	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x0a8e0f…
10-04 03:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xad0f3b…
10-04 03:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x7f2124…
10-03 20:51:32	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x769a72…
10-03 17:53:56	XRP Up or Down - October 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x8736dd…
10-02 16:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x99bf14…
10-01 16:15:12	Solana Up or Down - October 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	41¢	$6	0x473c11…
10-01 12:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xbe74e1…
10-01 12:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x7f6900…
10-01 12:17:36	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-01 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xf62280…
10-01 12:17:36	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-01 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xbae814…
09-30 16:02:11	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	53¢	$10	0x6a4c23…
09-30 16:02:11	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0x146e72…
09-30 12:30:14	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0x5c08f5…
09-30 09:31:00	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	36	36¢	$13	0x6e601d…
09-30 08:04:23	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 08:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xcbf0d4…
09-29 00:03:21	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-29 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0xca4e11…
09-28 04:01:29	Ethereum Up or Down - September 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x02ca0f…
09-27 20:05:30	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-27 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	12	46¢	$6	0xec3f56…
09-25 08:08:23	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-25 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7c167b…
09-24 16:00:45	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-24 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xaec1fe…
09-24 08:09:08	Solana Up or Down - September 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	54¢	$7	0x7cc886…
09-20 16:00:24	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0x6deeb1…
09-20 15:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x26d873…
09-20 02:33:03	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-20 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x40fb4d…
09-20 00:00:06	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-20 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xb708dd…
09-19 00:16:48	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	47	12¢	$6	0x0a4d1e…
09-18 23:12:33	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	13	50¢	$7	0x566e76…
09-18 22:02:39	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb89bb9…
09-17 12:04:04	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xe27837…
09-16 15:31:27	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	86	16¢	$14	0xf594a3…
09-16 15:31:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	4¢	$4	0x48e186…
09-16 15:31:17	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	202	10¢	$21	0xc65331…
09-16 15:31:09	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	7¢	$10	0xd58727…
06-02 21:50:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	330	1¢	$2	0x8cf321…
06-02 06:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	463	58¢	$269	0xa1d1ac…
06-02 05:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	507	50¢	$254	0x1176ce…
06-01 23:18:42	Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	150	16¢	$24	0x0b6e65…
06-01 11:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	40¢	$11	0xf32d28…
06-01 11:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0xe5a1d2…
06-01 11:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x55ef5c…
06-01 11:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	32	30¢	$9	0x18f363…
06-01 11:25:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	32	30¢	$9	0x0c4c8b…
06-01 10:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	44	51¢	$22	0x481f34…
06-01 10:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	44	6¢	$3	0x280577…
06-01 10:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	69	6¢	$4	0xeb4489…
06-01 10:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	69	31¢	$21	0x6b8ca2…
06-01 00:06:48	XRP Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x3f9681…
05-31 14:15:32	XRP Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x98a382…