Thorny-Junker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

41.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$273

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

$195

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 05-11 07:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$8

Politics

31% 0% $-10

Crypto

19% 29% $-7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	+200	$100	50¢	$99	$-1	05-10 12:50
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	+100	$65	60¢	$60	$-4	05-09 10:34
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	Mayweather	+47	$30	62¢	$29	$-1	05-09 10:30
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	+32	$11	20¢	$7	$-4	05-10 18:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	1	$100	200	0	+200	open	—	05-10 12:50
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$65	100	0	+100	open	—	05-09 10:34
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	1	$30	47	0	+47	open	—	05-09 10:30
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET	2	$18	13	13	+0	Down	+$8	05-11 05:14
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$11	32	0	+32	open	—	05-10 18:45
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	1	$10	77	0	+77	Yes	$-10	05-10 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	1	$10	0	12	-12	Up	$-3	05-11 05:23
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3AM ET	1	$5	38	0	+38	Down	$-5	05-11 07:50
BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	+$8	05-11 07:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Up	$-5	05-11 04:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	+$8	05-11 04:49
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$5	16	0	+16	Up	$-5	05-11 04:47
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-11 04:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 07:50:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x9f3cbf…
05-11 07:19:57	BNB Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x1d0adb…
05-11 05:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	12	79¢	$10	0xe16434…
05-11 05:14:25	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xc511b6…
05-11 04:52:36	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xba0b51…
05-11 04:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xc89f42…
05-11 04:48:29	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc160fe…
05-11 04:47:59	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x54c811…
05-11 04:47:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x40ab8e…
05-10 18:45:12	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	34¢	$11	0xd1cfc4…
05-10 18:44:23	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xcd3dcd…
05-10 12:50:09	Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xdaa8ad…
05-09 10:34:59	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xd15677…
05-09 10:30:28	Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2	Mayweather	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x7d25d6…