Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

56.5%

Resolved

108

Trades

113

lifetime

Volume

$180

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-08-03

last 11-06 01:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

76% 59% +$10

Politics

20% 61% +$7

Tech

3% 33% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	11-03 16:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-03 08:29
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	+1	$1	80¢	$1	+$0	11-06 01:31
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	11-04 01:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	2	$4	10	+10	Yes	+$3	09-08 23:08
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-19 01:03
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 7	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-08 04:43
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-21 06:50
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?	1	$2	6	+6	Down	+$4	09-18 15:16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-09 08:44
spx up or down on september 16 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Down	-$2	09-16 08:10
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	09-17 00:20
hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	08-08 00:47
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-20 22:43
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	09-12 15:14
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-03 08:46
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-21 14:51
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-13 22:12
spx up or down on august 7 2026	1	$2	5	+5	Up	-$2	08-07 07:35
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-23 11:36
will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-17 15:02
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-16 16:12
ato quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 05 2026 1pt36	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	-$2	08-03 16:48
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-22 15:27
will warsh say good morning during jackson hole speech on august 28	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-22 18:59
Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-10 02:27
Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-09 16:49
will mu reach 1110 by august 17 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-17 23:03
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-22 06:56
will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy in august 20260731154203515	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-23 09:39
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of August 24 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-24 02:20
next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-29 22:51
will spy dip to 765 by august 17 2026	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	08-17 06:31
will trump say transgender during remarks in new york 20260811183234693	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	-$2	08-14 15:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 01:31:33	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb83147…
11-05 13:14:37	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x319d11…
11-05 02:40:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf558cd…
11-04 09:33:13	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x67bbdc…
11-04 01:11:18	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x566c34…
11-03 16:59:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xd4cc87…
11-03 08:29:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe06d49…
11-03 00:25:12	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8161ac…
11-02 04:21:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 2?	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xfcb22f…
11-01 20:04:51	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xfd6f56…
10-31 21:56:15	Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf924f3…
10-30 01:53:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe52a58…
10-28 10:48:47	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $192 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa718f4…
10-28 02:33:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf2ddac…
10-27 05:08:23	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2f7925…
10-22 18:45:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd03588…
10-22 10:44:42	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x2c1d45…
10-22 02:10:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 22?	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe90a1d…
10-21 06:07:41	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 24?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8d0512…
10-20 22:04:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 21?	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x9fab08…
10-18 00:59:12	Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb1dd9c…
10-17 16:12:08	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7ba437…
10-16 12:42:45	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7fe910…
10-16 04:33:36	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x492686…
10-15 18:57:23	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x45f34f…
10-15 09:23:19	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x21f01c…
10-10 12:47:52	Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.075B?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x379633…
10-10 11:31:45	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1eadf2…
10-08 21:40:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xdb4c07…
10-08 13:40:36	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 8?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x41f629…
10-08 04:30:41	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x83d35d…
10-08 04:20:41	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x88080d…
10-07 18:22:42	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x59b0e4…
10-07 18:19:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $532.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x25cb85…
10-07 09:47:33	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x0a329e…
10-07 01:47:15	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x69b534…
10-06 17:46:33	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9ab943…
10-06 08:59:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x8a9c9d…
10-06 00:59:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xa62188…
10-05 15:11:25	will ewy reach 195 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9ef44a…
10-05 00:13:58	will mu dip to 1020 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xc566c3…
10-04 04:26:20	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc40941…
10-02 08:05:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2?	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x390053…
09-28 05:22:32	will pltr reach 201 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2c3fdd…
09-27 21:22:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x9db370…
09-27 13:06:27	will pltr dip to 186 in september 2026	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa88815…
09-27 02:29:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe5a2eb…
09-26 19:43:48	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x00bddc…
09-26 08:11:17	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe33a99…
09-24 19:50:09	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x03d05c…
09-23 11:36:58	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x46edb8…
09-22 15:27:01	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0x779ba0…
09-22 06:56:01	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0xb04633…
09-21 22:53:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe8d95c…
09-21 14:51:15	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x06afad…
09-21 06:50:17	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xe49769…
09-20 22:43:41	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xdbf1ba…
09-19 01:03:30	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x97ce04…
09-18 15:16:09	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18?	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x0f33c3…
09-17 17:41:46	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x99edce…
09-17 00:20:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0xde16aa…
09-16 16:12:30	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x9262dc…
09-16 08:10:00	spx up or down on september 16 2026	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xb13961…
09-13 22:12:54	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xdf1484…
09-12 15:14:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x3da800…
09-10 02:27:13	Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x2b49c1…
09-09 16:49:34	Will John Ternus say "Hardware" during his Apple Keynote?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xbb85af…
09-09 08:44:40	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xd3624c…
09-08 23:08:28	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xbed427…
09-08 14:33:18	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of September 7 2026?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xa13179…
09-08 04:43:13	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 7	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5bc348…
09-03 08:45:10	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf849c9…
09-02 21:42:43	will apple release a foldable iphone by september 15 877 292	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x617032…
09-02 14:54:01	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xc9d90e…
09-01 14:10:12	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xd22cb1…
09-01 14:04:07	Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x80398f…
09-01 05:44:46	will iran target an arab country by september 15 2026 20260831	Yes	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x44945e…
08-30 21:44:13	will hood dip to 97 50 by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xe3c992…
08-29 22:51:16	next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0c3622…
08-29 14:44:19	will pltr reach 192 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x490eb1…
08-28 20:03:30	google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 4 2026	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xb1e295…
08-24 21:19:57	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of August 24 2026?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x704526…
08-24 10:25:42	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $202.50 Week of August 24 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf3b13d…
08-24 02:20:07	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xc7d305…
08-24 02:12:25	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa2157a…
08-23 09:39:33	will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy in august 20260731154203515	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xd920ef…
08-22 18:59:19	will warsh say good morning during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x8538db…
08-22 00:40:03	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0xc944e6…
08-21 13:17:13	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xee68f6…
08-21 05:14:25	xauusd up or down on august 21 2026	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xc92b8f…
08-20 21:09:12	spx up or down on august 21 2026	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xb35ee7…
08-17 23:03:12	will mu reach 1110 by august 17 2026	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x1b200a…
08-17 15:02:04	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x8beaa6…
08-17 06:32:42	will coin dip to 142 50 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8b7a8f…
08-17 06:31:37	will spy dip to 765 by august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x82104c…
08-16 22:29:00	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x4627dd…
08-14 15:33:36	will trump say transgender during remarks in new york 20260811183234693	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xb251a7…
08-08 16:57:16	gety quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 0pt01	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x853eae…
08-08 08:51:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x72c9dd…
08-08 00:47:45	hims quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 10 2026 neg0pt05	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xe96e7a…