Pale-Barrel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

71.2%

Resolved

329

Trades

765

lifetime

Volume

$9.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-21 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

78% 72% +$1

Crypto

13% 82% +$0

Politics

6% 80% +$0

Sports

2% 46% $0

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No		+2	$2	100¢	$2	$0	10-04 06:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	11	$113	57	57	+0	No	$0	07-22 07:30
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 26?	5	$104	52	52	+0	No	$0	06-26 03:01
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on July 1?	4	$99	50	50	+0	No	+$0	07-01 23:11
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on July 6?	3	$92	46	46	+0	No	+$0	07-05 20:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	4	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	07-21 04:01
Will Stacy Garrity win the 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Republican primary election?	3	$73	36	36	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 00:22
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27?	9	$61	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-27 21:13
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-01 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 14?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-14 15:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on May 27?	6	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-26 02:21
will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-19 05:36
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-21 14:47
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 31?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-31 20:41
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 12?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-12 05:35
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in June 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	4	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-14 10:34
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on July 14?	7	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-14 11:01
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-21 09:50
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on May 17?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-16 22:02
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-14 05:34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-10 08:25
Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	3	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-22 21:26
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26?	7	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-26 00:23
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	06-25 14:56
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-28 20:08
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 20?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-20 20:53
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 5?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-05 16:06
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 21?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	07-20 08:21
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28?	6	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-28 05:10
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-26 13:07
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be between 95 and 100?	3	$54	40	15	+25	No	+$0	05-22 15:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 18:52:39	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x06b0a2…
10-19 14:49:20	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9dc761…
10-14 23:58:24	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xe9dbb8…
10-14 23:57:31	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x6ec139…
10-14 23:56:37	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6cecbd…
10-14 23:55:48	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5244cf…
10-04 06:54:55	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe8d873…
09-25 16:50:26	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x733b81…
09-17 06:16:13	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3402b5…
09-05 02:49:40	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf98a7…
08-31 17:35:16	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x63e10d…
08-27 00:11:37	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd930f5…
08-27 00:10:30	Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa2c677…
08-23 20:24:40	Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x10a093…
08-10 07:30:27	Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x65790d…
07-25 14:54:15	Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x619557…
07-22 09:39:27	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or below on July 23?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4c6239…
07-22 07:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x622c80…
07-22 07:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9e1004…
07-22 07:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3931e9…
07-22 07:22:58	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2f9f2c…
07-22 07:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd6a71c…
07-22 07:16:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x604bdf…
07-22 07:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x483ccf…
07-22 06:11:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or below on July 23?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb287fd…
07-22 04:26:04	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 22?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc7a53d…
07-22 03:35:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x2252cd…
07-22 03:19:06	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf1ffa4…
07-22 02:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xbca093…
07-22 02:47:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xd096bc…
07-22 02:38:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x7d2a55…
07-22 02:38:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x601efd…
07-22 02:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4b9c66…
07-22 01:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on July 22?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x739e20…
07-21 21:01:28	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x05d0f6…
07-21 20:59:31	Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on July 22?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x735da3…
07-21 18:31:34	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 22?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xc14c7b…
07-21 14:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6c5d1c…
07-21 14:43:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x99f842…
07-21 14:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x910511…
07-21 12:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on July 22?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x5ccc0c…
07-21 11:54:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x8f6f0e…
07-21 11:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on July 22?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x789233…
07-21 09:39:16	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on July 21?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x947056…
07-21 08:27:25	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on July 21?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x140ebc…
07-21 06:48:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 21?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x39edea…
07-21 05:00:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 98°F or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x36cb88…
07-21 04:01:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x6b0d81…
07-21 03:49:42	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 98°F or higher on July 21?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xf5ae0c…
07-21 03:42:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x30d280…
07-21 03:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xbb3c30…
07-21 01:50:12	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 98°F or higher on July 21?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x937b58…
07-20 23:48:07	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 21?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x11bb19…
07-20 22:28:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd8b7d8…
07-20 21:58:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x725ce2…
07-20 20:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 20?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x6f434d…
07-20 19:07:42	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 21?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x69d4fa…
07-20 17:04:12	Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on July 21?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5509c1…
07-20 16:38:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on July 21?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x94160a…
07-20 16:36:34	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or below on July 21?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xea404c…
07-20 15:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9780c8…
07-20 13:38:42	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0xb68180…
07-20 11:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or below on July 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8784fa…
07-20 10:38:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 20?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x44a573…
07-20 08:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 21?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x62bcd4…
07-20 07:39:43	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xee1e82…
07-20 07:39:43	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6c8d83…
07-20 07:39:43	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4fdb0e…
07-20 07:39:43	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x066ae1…
07-20 07:37:33	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb2fcc9…
07-20 07:32:48	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 21?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7981ab…
07-20 06:52:51	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf6aba2…
07-20 05:39:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 20?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x59effe…
07-20 05:32:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 20?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4d89ec…
07-20 05:30:46	bitcoin above 60k on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xdc5879…
07-20 03:06:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 20?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8d7215…
07-20 00:09:49	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x6da8bd…
07-19 13:49:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xaf19de…
07-19 12:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x89f822…
07-19 10:47:43	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 19?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5eb3ae…
07-19 06:47:30	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xad7223…
07-19 05:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 19?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$26	0xe71439…
07-19 05:36:39	will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x4feb23…
07-19 05:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 19?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x31f9c1…
07-19 04:21:58	will bitcoin reach 70k july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x471205…
07-19 03:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 19?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0xb1e7ac…
07-19 01:10:49	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 21 20260714155939803	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xaf5366…
07-18 21:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 19?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8a6d6c…
07-18 10:02:19	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 39.0 on July 17, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2fabbe…
07-18 01:14:28	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 39.0 on July 17, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x559d3b…
07-18 01:10:24	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 39.0 on July 17, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xc6b810…
07-17 21:52:12	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 17	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2cc63d…
07-17 20:21:04	will bitcoin reach 67k on july 17	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf58220…
07-17 18:37:33	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 18?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd04628…
07-17 16:37:34	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x29132d…
07-17 16:30:51	will mu reach 1080 by july 13 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd8fb21…
07-17 15:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 18?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x81a120…
07-17 13:32:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 18?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2a2483…
07-17 13:28:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 18?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xaa2505…
07-17 11:29:46	Will Trump's approval rating be less than 39.0 on July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x17e7b4…