Free-Expectancy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

684

Trades

3,169

lifetime

Volume

$9.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-11

last 05-06 17:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 57% +$14

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 901 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
eth updown 15m 1776298500	2	$253	319	0	+319	open	—	04-16 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	3	$211	132	116	+15	Up	$-4	05-05 13:03
btc updown 5m 1776298500	1	$200	224	0	+224	open	—	04-16 00:19
btc updown 5m 1776133200	4	$151	191	0	+191	open	—	04-14 02:24
btc updown 5m 1776137700	8	$120	159	22	+137	open	—	04-14 03:38
btc updown 5m 1776138600	4	$115	173	0	+173	open	—	04-14 03:54
btc updown 5m 1776136800	5	$112	133	0	+133	open	—	04-14 03:23
eth updown 5m 1776138300	3	$107	115	0	+115	open	—	04-14 03:49
btc updown 5m 1776298200	2	$101	126	0	+126	open	—	04-16 00:13
xrp updown 5m 1776138300	2	$101	103	0	+103	open	—	04-14 03:49
btc updown 5m 1776295500	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	04-15 23:29
btc updown 5m 1776271800	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	04-15 16:52
btc updown 5m 1776301500	1	$78	153	0	+153	open	—	04-16 01:02
btc updown 5m 1776300300	1	$69	78	0	+78	open	—	04-16 00:49
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	9	$47	38	29	+8	Down	+$11	05-04 23:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	7	$44	46	30	+16	Up	+$26	05-05 02:25
btc updown 5m 1776222900	2	$40	54	0	+54	open	—	04-15 03:19
sol updown 5m 1776136800	7	$39	48	0	+48	open	—	04-14 03:24
btc updown 5m 1776137100	11	$39	62	0	+62	open	—	04-14 03:30
btc updown 5m 1776136200	12	$38	47	0	+47	open	—	04-14 03:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	8	$37	36	20	+16	Up	+$17	05-05 02:24
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$34	39	15	+24	Down	$-5	05-04 23:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	8	$34	35	20	+14	Up	+$19	05-04 23:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	4	$33	42	11	+31	Down	$-11	05-04 22:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	4	$32	37	14	+23	Down	$-5	05-05 00:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	6	$32	36	15	+21	Down	$-3	05-04 22:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	7	$31	34	15	+19	Up	$-3	05-05 01:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	6	$30	53	0	+53	Up	+$23	05-04 21:01
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	5	$29	38	15	+23	Down	+$22	05-05 00:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	4	$29	37	9	+28	Down	+$2	05-04 23:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 17:59:25	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xeb2088…
05-06 17:54:41	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x5ddeb6…
05-06 17:29:05	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x3148b6…
05-06 17:14:32	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x9e5985…
05-06 17:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x6f3d88…
05-06 17:09:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x5c32ba…
05-06 16:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xd9f094…
05-06 16:59:36	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x53bf93…
05-06 16:54:49	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbc9262…
05-06 16:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x3717a6…
05-06 15:58:43	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x283e30…
05-06 15:44:17	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xe167b1…
05-06 15:04:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x210015…
05-06 14:53:37	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x62a4f6…
05-06 14:44:37	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xcc57db…
05-06 14:38:52	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x7455fd…
05-06 14:29:49	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xf3f1df…
05-06 14:19:50	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x6d608d…
05-06 13:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x6e6e9b…
05-06 12:54:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xe11a9b…
05-06 12:49:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x125103…
05-06 12:49:44	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf5df7e…
05-06 12:39:38	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xffeb49…
05-06 12:39:38	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5bbfa9…
05-06 12:29:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd2b435…
05-06 12:29:04	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7627cf…
05-06 12:28:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xe43fdc…
05-06 12:09:04	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x31f975…
05-06 12:09:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x5eb6a4…
05-06 11:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x646039…
05-06 11:59:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0755a5…
05-06 11:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf3ffba…
05-06 11:39:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xd1f123…
05-06 11:39:06	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa48d5c…
05-06 11:38:42	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x60eb25…
05-06 11:14:52	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbd5686…
05-06 11:14:42	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7f9b47…
05-06 11:14:42	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x22da56…
05-06 11:04:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf40c0f…
05-06 11:04:40	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x822c0f…
05-06 10:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xda8424…
05-06 10:59:04	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbcd48e…
05-06 10:58:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x287419…
05-06 10:24:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe5eb04…
05-06 10:24:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x42d36f…
05-06 10:19:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x88eb69…
05-06 10:14:58	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x69acf1…
05-06 10:14:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x511e72…
05-06 10:04:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x25005f…
05-06 09:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x148397…
05-06 09:14:06	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x049b7e…
05-06 09:13:52	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xe38775…
05-06 08:43:34	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x1b39e1…
05-06 08:29:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf45811…
05-06 08:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x94f56b…
05-06 08:14:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xf87bc7…
05-06 07:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xaa7e6f…
05-06 07:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xff5b4d…
05-06 07:49:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x7ec0bb…
05-06 07:44:52	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa801e1…
05-06 07:44:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x099343…
05-06 07:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbc0eff…
05-06 07:39:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xbf888f…
05-06 07:39:02	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x4e890e…
05-06 07:19:18	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x78efb3…
05-06 07:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xccd2b5…
05-06 07:19:16	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x48d0f4…
05-06 07:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x77dbcd…
05-06 07:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5b643b…
05-06 06:34:50	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x04b127…
05-06 06:30:00	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb73120…
05-06 06:24:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8254d1…
05-06 06:24:44	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x9844aa…
05-06 06:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x762e0d…
05-06 06:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xd113d8…
05-06 06:14:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb8d145…
05-06 06:14:48	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc82266…
05-06 06:14:48	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x712403…
05-06 06:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc41c89…
05-06 06:14:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x4263e2…
05-06 06:04:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x841106…
05-06 06:04:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x14cf09…
05-06 05:54:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x50a925…
05-06 05:53:54	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x5a1600…
05-06 05:49:30	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf97826…
05-06 05:49:30	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x102a20…
05-06 05:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x612e77…
05-06 05:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc49d9a…
05-06 05:29:56	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0a27b3…
05-06 05:29:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x89578e…
05-06 05:29:46	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x4dfeff…
05-06 05:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8c8d14…
05-06 05:19:50	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x42c4b8…
05-06 05:19:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x58a716…
05-06 05:19:16	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa1ac6c…
05-06 05:19:14	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xe1f0f2…
05-06 05:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5e2468…
05-06 05:14:40	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x3ec4db…
05-06 05:14:40	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x015485…
05-06 05:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3182df…