Free-Expectancy — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

83 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$240

$268 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 50% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up		+5	$5	42¢	$2	$-3	05-05 23:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	1	$9	15	+15	Down	$-9	05-05 04:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	1	$9	15	+15	Down	$-9	05-05 06:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$8	15	+15	Up	$-8	05-05 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	1	$8	15	+15	open	—	05-05 06:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$8	15	+15	open	—	05-05 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	1	$7	15	+15	open	—	05-05 12:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	1	$7	16	+16	Down	$-7	05-05 05:30
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	1	$6	15	+15	open	—	05-05 10:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	1	$6	7	+7	Up	+$2	05-04 22:04
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	1	$5	14	+14	open	—	05-05 09:46
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	1	$5	12	+12	Down	+$6	05-05 04:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$5	10	+10	Down	+$5	05-05 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	1	$5	6	+6	Down	+$1	05-05 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	1	$5	10	+10	Up	+$5	05-04 20:59
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-05 22:20
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$5	5	+5	open	—	05-05 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$5	11	+11	open	—	05-05 12:41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$4	8	+8	open	—	05-05 11:21
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	1	$4	9	+9	Down	$-4	05-05 06:20
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	1	$4	9	+9	open	—	05-05 11:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	1	$4	8	+8	Up	$-4	05-05 04:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	1	$4	6	+6	Down	+$3	05-05 04:30
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	1	$4	8	+8	Up	+$5	05-05 05:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	1	$4	6	+6	Down	+$3	05-05 04:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$4	9	+9	open	—	05-05 13:07
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	1	$4	8	+8	Down	$-4	05-05 06:10
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$3	8	+8	open	—	05-05 07:51
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	1	$3	6	+6	Down	+$3	05-05 06:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	1	$3	7	+7	Down	+$4	05-05 06:00
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	1	$3	8	+8	open	—	05-05 11:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 23:10:02	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd6ec20…
05-05 22:20:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe296f9…
05-05 13:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x170443…
05-05 13:07:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0x09d19e…
05-05 13:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x8e3676…
05-05 12:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xf6d59f…
05-05 12:41:52	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xc50764…
05-05 12:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xed8474…
05-05 12:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x794dca…
05-05 11:46:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x050dee…
05-05 11:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x45afc0…
05-05 11:31:44	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb20de8…
05-05 11:31:40	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x696af4…
05-05 11:26:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x19e901…
05-05 11:21:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$4	0xc0fb70…
05-05 11:06:14	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x6b44a4…
05-05 10:41:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xb07ecb…
05-05 10:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa8f9ee…
05-05 10:21:12	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	43¢	$6	0x4eabee…
05-05 09:46:26	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0x0808d5…
05-05 09:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x425398…
05-05 09:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xe254e4…
05-05 09:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6ad04a…
05-05 09:36:08	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x8f13d9…
05-05 09:06:26	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x59c7eb…
05-05 09:06:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x9a1271…
05-05 08:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x138816…
05-05 08:05:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xdd5cb5…
05-05 07:51:04	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$3	0xc7ccad…
05-05 06:35:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x7acb62…
05-05 06:20:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x57b153…
05-05 06:15:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x840fca…
05-05 06:15:38	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x795332…
05-05 06:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0xb2f6d4…
05-05 06:10:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x10d011…
05-05 06:10:34	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0x8bc37b…
05-05 06:00:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x8633c6…
05-05 06:00:36	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2c0c59…
05-05 06:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	56¢	$9	0xdd3fc6…
05-05 05:45:50	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x662e1d…
05-05 05:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe14d70…
05-05 05:35:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x1dc2b0…
05-05 05:30:38	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xfd5c5b…
05-05 05:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x8ef710…
05-05 05:30:36	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x4f1e18…
05-05 05:30:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0xd24d80…
05-05 05:15:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0x37202e…
05-05 05:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0xbf6713…
05-05 05:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xfd9e2d…
05-05 05:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xbc780e…
05-05 05:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x514d0e…
05-05 05:05:04	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3a0bc3…
05-05 04:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf03640…
05-05 04:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7f175d…
05-05 04:30:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xda937d…
05-05 04:30:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x8876a3…
05-05 04:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0f62b3…
05-05 04:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe2d8d5…
05-05 04:25:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	46¢	$5	0xab0b00…
05-05 04:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x1422e4…
05-05 04:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	56¢	$4	0x46e4c8…
05-05 04:00:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xa2903b…
05-05 04:00:34	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xaa9f22…
05-05 03:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4ecf00…
05-05 02:45:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x89d0d2…
05-05 01:55:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x93751f…
05-05 01:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xce27ce…
05-05 01:24:34	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xa5dd34…
05-05 00:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x148de8…
05-05 00:34:28	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x4940cf…
05-04 23:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x6d545f…
05-04 23:19:56	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xaebad6…
05-04 23:04:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x003a57…
05-04 23:04:18	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x01ac44…
05-04 22:39:48	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xbc8150…
05-04 22:04:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x755411…
05-04 22:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	77¢	$6	0x74b510…
05-04 20:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x5e248f…
05-04 20:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x852d92…
05-04 20:02:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2e37ed…
05-04 20:01:36	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb05009…
05-04 20:01:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9d4f7a…
05-04 20:01:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x6f2095…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	49	$4.89K	292	05-05 13:11
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	47	$724	162	05-05 13:11
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	43	$712	106	05-05 23:10
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	40	$1.06K	87	05-05 13:07
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	39	$3.53K	136	05-05 13:11
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	34	$2.87K	141	05-05 13:11
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	31	$2.66K	96	05-05 23:05
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	24	$613	52	05-05 13:11