Actual-Appeal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$350

Unrealized P&L

+$34

Hit rate

36.7%

Resolved

Trades

762

lifetime

Volume

$96.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$126

Open exposure

$24

1 position

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-05 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Politics

79% 62% +$4

Other

19% 67% +$413

Sports

1% 0% -$42

Crypto

0% 0% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-9,752	-$59	0¢	$-24	+$34	04-28 13:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	203	$42.2K	56,726	54,706	+2,019	No	-$228	05-29 06:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	59	$9.7K	13,623	13,623	+0	No	+$27	09-02 13:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	26	$7.5K	16,921	16,921	+0	No	-$703	05-26 15:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	134	$7.2K	102,777	112,749	-9,972	No	+$827	06-07 17:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	50	$6.2K	12,506	12,506	+0	No	-$40	05-23 18:01
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	53	$5.6K	11,007	11,007	+0	Yes	+$175	10-05 17:19
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$3.1K	26,000	26,000	+0	Yes	+$200	06-07 19:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	11	$2.4K	3,404	3,404	+0	Yes	+$202	09-29 18:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$2.2K	1,435	1,435	+0	Yes	+$0	09-13 13:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	6	$2.0K	1,584	1,584	+0	Yes	+$16	07-14 11:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$2.0K	1,967	1,967	+0	No	+$168	04-17 14:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$1.7K	2,638	2,638	+0	Yes	+$77	06-08 02:20
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	12	$1.3K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$42	06-06 03:13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	62	$791	10,262	10,262	+0	No	-$361	05-11 18:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	24	$595	35,533	35,470	+63	No	+$35	05-23 05:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	20	$500	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$20	04-30 17:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$275	193	193	+0	Yes	+$2	01-27 07:07
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	8	$227	250	250	+0	Yes	$0	03-24 05:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	33	$160	20,000	20,000	-0	No	+$0	04-30 06:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$60	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$0	04-30 11:43
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$59	0	9,752	-9,752	open	—	04-28 13:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 08:15 UTC	2	$25	100	0	+100	Down	-$25	02-24 08:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 17:19:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,322	18¢	$418	0xfeb238…
10-05 14:55:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	615	14¢	$86	0x950b4b…
10-05 14:51:22	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	73	14¢	$10	0xd8ac9a…
10-05 14:49:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	365	14¢	$51	0x43fd27…
10-05 14:38:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x3b17e4…
10-05 14:34:46	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x32b5f3…
10-05 14:34:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x7cc381…
10-05 14:33:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	260	15¢	$39	0x17aaae…
10-05 14:32:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x991da1…
10-05 14:30:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	14¢	$16	0x66aa6d…
10-05 14:29:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x82eb72…
10-05 14:29:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	140	15¢	$21	0x70cf44…
10-05 14:28:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0xc8d844…
10-05 14:28:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	57	15¢	$9	0x038836…
10-05 14:26:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0x88f7fb…
10-05 14:25:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x6cfe88…
10-05 14:22:43	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	235	14¢	$33	0xf8c190…
10-05 14:20:52	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	15¢	$4	0xc3162c…
10-05 14:20:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	15¢	$7	0x7be156…
10-05 14:19:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	15¢	$9	0x3b610e…
10-05 14:15:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	95	14¢	$13	0x86486d…
10-05 14:15:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	387	14¢	$54	0x2c0c5c…
10-05 14:14:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	294	14¢	$41	0xdf469b…
10-05 14:14:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	140	14¢	$20	0x24b631…
10-05 14:12:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	230	14¢	$32	0x339650…
10-05 14:11:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	67	15¢	$10	0x3002b8…
10-05 14:11:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,664	15¢	$250	0xa54fb5…
10-05 14:11:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x6f77e6…
10-05 14:10:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	336	15¢	$50	0x572b81…
10-05 14:10:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0x50fe57…
10-05 14:09:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xb66728…
10-05 14:09:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x1c9499…
10-05 14:09:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0x389282…
10-05 14:07:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x8a9adb…
10-05 14:05:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	469	14¢	$66	0x13d581…
10-05 14:05:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xd9649c…
10-05 14:04:37	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	582	15¢	$87	0xee17e0…
10-05 14:03:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	382	15¢	$57	0x2c603b…
10-05 14:02:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	188	15¢	$28	0xcf2640…
10-05 14:01:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	27	15¢	$4	0x5be845…
10-05 14:01:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	126	15¢	$19	0x2428a7…
10-05 14:00:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	159	15¢	$24	0x99ed8b…
10-05 13:58:22	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	279	15¢	$42	0xda6d45…
10-05 13:58:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xc41bf1…
10-05 13:57:19	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	320	14¢	$45	0x2095fc…
10-05 13:51:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0xe5e642…
10-05 13:51:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	105	14¢	$15	0xa764fe…
10-05 13:51:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	921	14¢	$129	0x0df50f…
10-05 13:28:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,000	15¢	$750	0x67986c…
10-05 05:25:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	640	83¢	$532	0xa1855f…
10-05 05:25:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	988	83¢	$820	0x5779de…
10-05 02:21:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,629	83¢	$1,352	0xe2ccc3…
09-29 18:03:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,729	38¢	$657	0x58a3d6…
09-29 18:02:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xb34e83…
09-29 18:01:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	36	38¢	$14	0x76a355…
09-29 18:01:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,378	38¢	$524	0xfced0e…
09-25 16:18:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xcb377a…
09-25 16:15:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	132	38¢	$50	0x4748f7…
09-25 16:14:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xa0c4bf…
09-25 16:12:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x90f59a…
09-25 16:12:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x7ceb77…
09-24 14:13:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	97	36¢	$35	0xb20d78…
09-23 14:25:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,404	32¢	$1,089	0x3aec29…
09-13 13:27:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,435	78¢	$1,120	0x9e3c22…
09-13 10:25:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	297	78¢	$232	0x1171a9…
09-13 10:24:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	444	78¢	$346	0x2bd17f…
09-13 10:19:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	205	78¢	$160	0x375d3c…
09-13 10:17:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x04a025…
09-13 10:16:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	419	78¢	$327	0x64010b…
09-13 10:16:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	78¢	$49	0x3c1235…
09-02 13:17:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	579	43¢	$249	0x906d1c…
09-02 13:16:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x066302…
09-02 13:16:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	349	43¢	$150	0x736821…
09-02 13:15:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,573	43¢	$676	0x4724c6…
08-31 13:16:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,372	45¢	$1,068	0x1943e3…
08-31 13:15:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	84	45¢	$38	0xecc9d0…
08-31 13:15:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x75666a…
08-31 13:14:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0xa74b2d…
08-31 13:14:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x185a58…
08-17 12:38:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	885	26¢	$230	0xfc8095…
08-15 14:22:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0xf5568b…
08-15 14:17:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x87c706…
08-15 14:16:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x28f62c…
08-15 14:16:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x07acf1…
08-15 14:15:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x54e52a…
08-15 14:15:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xd9c1c3…
08-15 14:15:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x78cb07…
08-15 14:09:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x926499…
08-15 14:08:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x3ab892…
08-15 14:08:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xbcc45d…
08-15 14:07:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x5eb991…
08-15 14:03:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xeab410…
08-15 14:01:31	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa2abf8…
08-15 14:01:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	55	26¢	$14	0x1f8901…
08-15 14:00:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x8aace2…
08-15 14:00:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	343	26¢	$89	0xb3ce48…
08-15 13:59:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xcba656…
08-15 13:56:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xd53057…
08-15 13:54:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xd2bf18…
08-15 13:53:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x8b92c5…