Round-Volatility — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$201

Hit rate

36.1%

Resolved

521

Trades

1,582

lifetime

Volume

$112.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$165

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 09-16 17:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 41% -$19,921

Other

8% 33% -$3,090

Sports

2% 25% -$2,139

Politics

1% 55% +$164

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	+2,648	$320	5¢	$132	-$188	08-21 11:59
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-191	-$17	13¢	$-25	-$8	07-22 20:03
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	-62	-$4	5¢	$-3	+$2	07-22 20:03
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	-71	-$4	3¢	$-2	+$2	06-17 22:08
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+7	$1	18¢	$1	+$0	08-02 19:06
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+29	$10	4¢	$1	-$9	07-25 17:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	112	$8.7K	271,726	284,586	-12,861	No	-$8,154	06-10 08:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	51	$8.1K	34,060	20,000	+14,059	No	-$2,968	09-16 17:11
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	6	$3.2K	44,588	0	+44,588	No	-$3,177	03-23 13:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 16:25 UTC	4	$3.0K	3,388	0	+3,388	Up	+$367	04-14 16:27
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	63	$2.4K	38,711	0	+38,711	No	-$2,370	04-25 15:27
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	17	$2.3K	53,852	0	+53,852	No	-$2,276	06-17 22:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:15 UTC	9	$2.0K	3,274	0	+3,274	Up	+$1,308	04-10 14:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 05:15 UTC	6	$1.7K	2,456	0	+2,456	Up	+$744	04-11 05:19
bitcoin above 76k on april 17	14	$1.4K	10,831	0	+10,831	Yes	+$9,391	04-17 02:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:30 UTC	7	$1.2K	1,948	0	+1,948	Up	+$743	04-10 14:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 16:55 UTC	5	$1.1K	2,470	0	+2,470	Down	-$1,100	04-14 16:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:35 UTC	6	$1.1K	733	733	+0	Up	+$376	08-21 09:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:50 UTC	9	$1.0K	1,928	0	+1,928	Up	+$881	04-14 14:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 17:55 UTC	14	$1.0K	1,905	0	+1,905	Up	+$863	04-10 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 18:05 UTC	6	$1.0K	1,772	0	+1,772	Up	+$762	04-10 18:06
bitcoin above 72k on april 13	17	$1.0K	4,315	0	+4,315	No	-$1,001	04-13 15:51
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	37	$941	4,762	0	+4,762	No	-$941	04-27 15:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 15:15 UTC	12	$931	1,915	0	+1,915	Down	-$931	04-10 15:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:45 UTC	6	$905	1,763	0	+1,763	Down	-$905	04-10 14:46
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	2	$899	11,014	0	+11,014	No	-$899	03-25 10:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 19:25 UTC	12	$855	1,854	0	+1,854	Down	-$855	04-10 19:28
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?	19	$815	4,893	0	+4,893	No	-$815	04-27 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 16:40 UTC	7	$738	1,441	0	+1,441	Down	-$738	04-14 16:44
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25?	10	$735	9,006	0	+9,006	No	-$735	04-22 08:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:40 UTC	5	$720	1,617	0	+1,617	Down	-$720	04-10 14:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:35 UTC	7	$720	1,538	0	+1,538	Down	-$720	04-14 14:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 05:55 UTC	4	$706	427	427	+0	Up	+$146	08-21 06:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 05:05 UTC	4	$705	1,346	0	+1,346	Down	-$705	04-11 05:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 19:10 UTC	4	$700	1,329	0	+1,329	Up	+$629	04-10 19:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 15:00 UTC	7	$700	1,408	0	+1,408	Down	-$700	04-10 14:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-16 17:11:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,021	14¢	$283	0xafc72d…
09-16 12:14:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x515811…
09-16 11:26:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xcd455f…
09-16 11:25:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x947c34…
09-16 11:25:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	583	12¢	$70	0xb14154…
09-16 09:42:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x93d327…
09-16 09:42:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	938	13¢	$122	0xda964c…
09-16 09:27:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0x37dc43…
09-16 07:37:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	769	13¢	$100	0xe4bcfd…
09-16 07:26:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,955	13¢	$254	0x8f43a0…
09-16 07:01:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,923	13¢	$250	0x771fd0…
09-16 06:40:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,731	13¢	$225	0x269fd5…
09-16 04:41:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,667	12¢	$200	0x3cf4ea…
09-14 19:54:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20,000	13¢	$2,554	0x6d1bb9…
09-14 19:40:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x6b4f65…
09-14 19:35:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	131	14¢	$18	0xf6400d…
09-14 19:34:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x24dba6…
09-14 19:34:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0x0ebc5e…
09-14 19:34:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xd10625…
09-14 19:34:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	786	14¢	$110	0x479a1a…
09-14 19:27:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	935	14¢	$131	0x0d814b…
09-14 18:57:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	533	15¢	$80	0xca03d5…
09-14 18:00:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,553	15¢	$233	0x10b7cb…
09-14 17:26:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	560	16¢	$90	0x7282ce…
09-14 17:12:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	875	16¢	$140	0x154ec7…
09-14 16:47:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,171	14¢	$164	0xce2eaf…
09-14 16:33:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x8b1279…
09-14 16:33:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0xea9e48…
09-14 15:58:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	625	16¢	$100	0xb7430c…
09-14 13:45:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x69aabd…
09-14 13:45:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x2cf78b…
09-14 13:45:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	18¢	$12	0xf9fdf9…
09-14 13:44:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x533ff5…
09-14 13:44:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xc7baed…
09-14 13:44:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0xa0c179…
09-14 13:22:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x53eb6f…
09-14 10:46:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x77e3b7…
09-14 05:53:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0xe1d924…
09-14 05:10:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	476	21¢	$100	0x69fa84…
09-14 04:35:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0x151ab0…
09-14 03:34:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	95	20¢	$19	0xf6469e…
09-13 18:28:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,734	22¢	$381	0xe11beb…
09-13 17:50:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	576	22¢	$127	0x6d4c2e…
09-13 17:33:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,381	21¢	$500	0x78d368…
09-13 16:54:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,110	21¢	$233	0x09130f…
09-13 15:22:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0xdc3c8a…
09-13 15:22:34	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0xb75a76…
09-13 15:22:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x80f140…
09-13 15:22:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0xa0c8ec…
09-13 13:25:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	455	22¢	$100	0x18f6fc…
09-13 12:30:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,857	22¢	$409	0x4b726b…
08-21 12:00:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 12:05 UTC	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x8d7154…
08-21 11:59:37	Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	BUY	859	12¢	$100	0x8af5c4…
08-21 11:58:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x323003…
08-21 11:58:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	221	5¢	$11	0xb448d4…
08-21 11:58:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2,346	3¢	$69	0x72ead5…
08-21 11:58:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	714	11¢	$80	0x8ade72…
08-21 11:57:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	685	12¢	$80	0xa355a6…
08-21 11:52:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x643f2e…
08-21 11:51:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1a03de…
08-21 11:51:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x249c15…
08-21 11:50:49	Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	BUY	94	11¢	$10	0x7ee58f…
08-21 11:50:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x3e0e04…
08-21 11:50:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x78c12f…
08-21 11:47:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1,040	8¢	$80	0xc9adb6…
08-21 11:47:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	235	34¢	$80	0xbb774e…
08-21 11:47:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:45 UTC	Up	BUY	229	35¢	$80	0x40469d…
08-21 11:43:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x6835e4…
08-21 11:42:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xec8b8f…
08-21 11:42:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xc67b55…
08-21 11:42:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x830d44…
08-21 11:42:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xdad661…
08-21 11:41:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x1a89ab…
08-21 11:41:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x903bb2…
08-21 11:41:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x6df25e…
08-21 11:40:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x47951b…
08-21 11:39:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x374953…
08-21 11:39:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x867a65…
08-21 11:39:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0236d3…
08-21 11:38:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	157	51¢	$80	0xab7a2e…
08-21 11:37:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 11:40 UTC	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x72f2b0…
08-21 10:06:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x012c58…
08-21 10:06:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:10 UTC	Up	SELL	191	50¢	$95	0x3cbdb6…
08-21 10:05:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	191	51¢	$97	0x3eb1dc…
08-21 10:04:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	242	41¢	$100	0xb49504…
08-21 10:04:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1,053	2¢	$25	0xd66482…
08-21 10:03:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	280	9¢	$25	0x1fe5e7…
08-21 10:03:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	367	27¢	$100	0x6b4be9…
08-21 10:03:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x4c41c9…
08-21 09:58:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd25a35…
08-21 09:57:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	569	4¢	$23	0xcf03b2…
08-21 09:56:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xe8c073…
08-21 09:56:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0xec0e62…
08-21 09:55:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x05988f…
08-21 09:55:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:55 UTC	Up	BUY	300	33¢	$100	0xd4bb7d…
08-21 09:53:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0x7c3eda…
08-21 09:51:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xbeec86…
08-21 09:50:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x53e3b9…
08-21 09:50:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	72	35¢	$25	0x6a30e1…
08-21 09:50:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 09:50 UTC	Up	BUY	226	44¢	$100	0x16a500…