Occasional-Rug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$969

Unrealized P&L

+$1.33K

Hit rate

43.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,404

lifetime

Volume

$250.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$178

Open exposure

$2.46K

1 position

First seen

2026-02-05

last 05-29 07:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Other

63% 37% -$8,744

Politics

37% 44% +$8,177

Crypto

0% 0% -$402

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-29).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-14,040	-$3,791	18¢	$-2457	+$1,334	05-06 00:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	105	$38.6K	97,776	97,776	+0	No	+$1,213	05-29 07:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	45	$25.9K	52,465	52,465	+0	No	-$1,714	04-21 19:38
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	32	$24.9K	39,420	39,420	+0	Yes	-$432	03-07 02:08
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	19	$22.4K	21,488	21,488	+0	Yes	-$3,628	05-18 07:42
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	25	$18.6K	11,035	11,035	+0	Yes	+$3,261	05-16 00:01
nothing ever happens khamenei	12	$14.2K	10,477	10,477	+0	No	+$6,759	03-01 01:56
will the us invade iran by march 31	75	$12.2K	34,320	35,840	-1,520	No	-$2,344	03-19 16:40
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	97	$11.7K	33,430	33,430	+0	No	-$1,354	04-01 14:01
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	18	$9.6K	10,544	10,544	+0	No	-$9,119	05-20 08:02
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	10	$9.2K	7,819	7,819	+0	No	+$6,463	05-15 17:05
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$8.4K	5,550	5,550	+0	Yes	+$2,553	04-05 03:49
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$5.8K	5,099	5,099	+0	No	+$4,178	05-15 17:05
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	14	$4.8K	12,148	12,148	+0	No	-$1,908	05-18 17:55
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	9	$4.8K	57,700	57,700	+0	No	+$487	04-29 10:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	30	$4.6K	16,522	16,522	+0	No	-$701	05-06 10:18
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$4.6K	2,369	2,369	+0	Yes	+$130	03-31 13:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	86	$4.3K	57,185	59,082	-1,898	No	-$249	05-08 16:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$3.8K	0	14,040	-14,040	open	—	05-06 00:42
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	22	$3.1K	40,338	40,338	+0	No	-$1,315	05-14 16:06
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$3.0K	7,006	7,006	+0	No	-$6	03-03 01:37
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	35	$2.5K	24,810	6,740	+18,070	No	-$491	03-14 23:04
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	34	$2.5K	18,108	18,108	+0	No	-$1,568	05-18 08:00
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	19	$2.3K	2,248	2,248	+0	Yes	+$2,146	02-28 07:47
will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	18	$1.9K	11,302	11,302	+0	No	-$1,502	04-14 08:50
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	3	$1.5K	0	1,692	-1,692	Yes	-$169	02-17 15:15
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	26	$859	13,700	13,700	+0	No	-$785	04-14 08:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	4	$519	940	940	+0	No	+$30	04-15 11:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$484	5,470	5,470	+0	No	-$173	04-27 13:39
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	2	$357	1,800	1,800	+0	No	-$75	03-06 23:25
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$352	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$30	03-03 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-29 07:02:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	5,250	0¢	$26	0x1657b7…
05-28 14:26:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5,250	0¢	$26	0x489d66…
05-28 00:49:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	5,220	1¢	$26	0x4f67af…
05-23 08:57:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	3,887	3¢	$120	0xee1b12…
05-23 08:55:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	113	3¢	$4	0x21a0b4…
05-23 08:25:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xfbd904…
05-23 08:23:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	47	3¢	$1	0xfb71d3…
05-23 08:18:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x14f26c…
05-23 08:15:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x9e7411…
05-23 07:58:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x46015d…
05-23 07:55:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	103	3¢	$3	0xd0ccf7…
05-23 07:51:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xa719f7…
05-23 07:46:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x18cdcc…
05-23 07:38:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x774b4a…
05-23 07:23:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x5966ca…
05-23 07:22:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x6b918c…
05-23 07:21:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xe8bf36…
05-23 07:20:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xd82b82…
05-23 07:15:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0xce6ec2…
05-23 07:13:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xb4d200…
05-23 07:10:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x1d6066…
05-23 07:03:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	206	3¢	$6	0x17dad5…
05-23 06:56:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xae90ce…
05-23 06:55:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	401	3¢	$12	0x6b2a71…
05-23 06:52:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x60527d…
05-23 06:50:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	771	21¢	$162	0x98cddf…
05-22 19:58:14	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	49	19¢	$9	0xbadcf0…
05-22 19:53:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	221	19¢	$42	0x563873…
05-22 19:52:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xb1612a…
05-22 19:51:12	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xf50baf…
05-22 19:49:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	150	19¢	$28	0x3ea839…
05-22 19:48:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x23d567…
05-22 19:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	3,091	5¢	$143	0xd89728…
05-22 19:32:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x2c44ae…
05-22 19:31:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	44	5¢	$2	0x9d4ce2…
05-22 15:02:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0xfdb7f2…
05-22 13:07:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,515	7¢	$112	0xa62e1b…
05-22 13:03:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x724477…
05-22 13:03:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	655	7¢	$48	0xb65cd7…
05-22 13:02:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	929	7¢	$69	0x974bff…
05-20 08:02:01	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	279	2¢	$6	0xf0f53e…
05-20 08:01:48	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$11	0xd64dcb…
05-20 07:58:17	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	4,063	2¢	$89	0xfb458b…
05-20 07:25:19	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	250	2¢	$6	0x674404…
05-20 07:24:32	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x5df4dc…
05-20 05:37:00	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	184	2¢	$4	0x088fd4…
05-20 05:25:49	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x6294c8…
05-20 00:56:05	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	267	2¢	$6	0xda1bb6…
05-20 00:52:27	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x51ccf2…
05-20 00:52:16	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0xce1da2…
05-20 00:52:07	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0xd99033…
05-20 00:51:59	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0xdad83a…
05-20 00:36:05	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$1	0xae5671…
05-20 00:26:43	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	2,006	2¢	$44	0x41a672…
05-20 00:26:33	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	2,704	2¢	$59	0xba6713…
05-20 00:26:10	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0xa3defd…
05-19 13:40:02	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	BUY	10,543	89¢	$9,350	0x18d746…
05-19 13:34:31	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x531e86…
05-18 17:55:26	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,380	10¢	$1,018	0x8ad1bc…
05-18 08:00:08	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15,507	2¢	$345	0xc3e742…
05-18 07:59:44	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	12¢	$13	0xa32e70…
05-18 07:49:03	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,161	3¢	$67	0x106fd8…
05-18 07:46:42	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x160bce…
05-18 07:45:28	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0x05ac66…
05-18 07:42:17	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15,942	51¢	$8,065	0xca0769…
05-18 01:47:11	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12,241	69¢	$8,447	0x12c6af…
05-18 01:22:53	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,020	12¢	$232	0x5bd5d2…
05-18 01:14:00	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	68¢	$65	0x030f2e…
05-18 01:13:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	68¢	$185	0xe67f35…
05-18 01:12:18	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,280	12¢	$377	0x94e58b…
05-18 01:01:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x0f861b…
05-18 00:58:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x9b1de4…
05-18 00:53:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	68¢	$262	0x0f96b0…
05-18 00:53:15	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,266	12¢	$618	0xdb0304…
05-18 00:52:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	385	68¢	$262	0x8239c4…
05-18 00:43:22	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x4a59c2…
05-18 00:42:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	11¢	$14	0xb8bda5…
05-18 00:41:44	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	11¢	$4	0xc7f961…
05-18 00:39:57	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x05c64a…
05-18 00:34:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x1289e6…
05-18 00:30:37	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	284	11¢	$32	0x08e71d…
05-18 00:30:13	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	11¢	$41	0x0f6daa…
05-18 00:29:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,951	68¢	$1,327	0x20511e…
05-18 00:27:06	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,280	29¢	$948	0x06c220…
05-18 00:15:50	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xbc01ff…
05-18 00:09:27	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,783	29¢	$1,090	0xe02f4d…
05-17 23:14:53	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x3e0cc2…
05-17 23:08:03	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	11¢	$10	0xd5dc21…
05-17 23:07:26	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	11¢	$12	0x5e8f94…
05-17 23:01:45	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0x9bfc04…
05-17 23:00:07	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x3ed62b…
05-17 22:57:24	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	11¢	$9	0x65a06a…
05-17 22:52:55	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x8a920f…
05-17 22:48:50	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	11¢	$6	0x6d2a7f…
05-17 22:47:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	254	11¢	$27	0x12cc2b…
05-17 22:42:00	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	11¢	$13	0x751b91…
05-17 22:41:41	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,012	11¢	$108	0x2a2c6d…
05-17 22:36:26	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,375	11¢	$361	0x1578d7…
05-17 22:32:05	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	601	11¢	$64	0x7981b8…
05-17 22:31:20	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x6bc939…