Old-Initiative — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$92

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.0%

Resolved

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$1.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 05-09 11:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 43% $-92

Tech

2% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	6	$183	626	626	+0	Up	$-39	05-08 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	3	$152	228	228	+0	Down	+$54	05-09 04:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$94	60	60	+0	Down	+$24	05-09 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	4	$80	452	0	+452	Up	$-80	05-09 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$79	0	87	-87	Down	$-9	05-08 13:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	4	$60	115	115	+0	Down	+$20	05-08 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	3	$53	106	39	+67	Down	+$18	05-08 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	5	$42	147	147	+0	Up	+$13	05-08 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	3	$34	25	25	+0	Down	+$13	05-08 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	4	$33	1,007	0	+1,007	Up	$-33	05-09 04:08
btc updown 5m 1777035600	2	$19	109	0	+109	open	—	04-24 13:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	2	$19	181	0	+181	Down	$-19	05-09 04:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$19	14	14	+0	Up	+$9	05-09 11:04
will trump talk to keir starmer today	3	$18	281	267	+13	open	—	04-25 01:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	1	$17	57	0	+57	Up	$-17	05-09 11:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	3	$15	150	100	+50	Down	+$3	05-09 04:18
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?	1	$15	254	0	+254	open	—	04-23 15:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$15	134	0	+134	Up	$-15	05-09 11:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$13	21	21	+0	Up	+$3	05-08 12:44
btc updown 5m 1775892000	2	$13	8	7	+0	open	—	04-11 07:24
btc updown 5m 1775898300	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	04-11 09:09
btc updown 5m 1775899200	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	04-11 09:23
btc updown 5m 1775902800	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	04-11 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	1	$10	40	0	+40	Down	$-10	05-09 04:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	2	$10	22	0	+22	Down	$-10	05-09 11:09
btc updown 5m 1775967000	2	$10	9	8	+0	open	—	04-12 04:14
btc updown 5m 1776017100	2	$9	14	14	+0	open	—	04-12 18:10
btc updown 5m 1775834100	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	04-10 15:20
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	2	$9	86	83	+3	open	—	04-23 18:13
btc updown 5m 1775851200	2	$8	9	9	+0	open	—	04-10 20:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 11:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	57	29¢	$17	0x549abf…
05-09 11:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xe15593…
05-09 11:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x06843d…
05-09 11:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xfdc499…
05-09 11:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	78	61¢	$48	0xa839a9…
05-09 11:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x9855d0…
05-09 11:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xf49f18…
05-09 11:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc4dc6c…
05-09 11:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xee4ff3…
05-09 11:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xb03ada…
05-09 11:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x4bf35c…
05-09 04:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	228	45¢	$103	0x83d425…
05-09 04:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x7cb01d…
05-09 04:36:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	62	47¢	$29	0x93c6b4…
05-09 04:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x557c1a…
05-09 04:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	141	6¢	$9	0x52bd31…
05-09 04:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x591d66…
05-09 04:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x660654…
05-09 04:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xda2cd7…
05-09 04:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xf29a16…
05-09 04:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	60	98¢	$59	0x6c6754…
05-09 04:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0xf2c561…
05-09 04:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb8670c…
05-09 04:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x59ff4a…
05-09 04:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	660	3¢	$20	0x9adaf5…
05-09 04:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0x5c5bd4…
05-09 04:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x05e346…
05-09 04:02:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0xc39f87…
05-09 04:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x729d24…
05-08 13:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	87	90¢	$79	0xbb41ed…
05-08 13:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x3ca1d9…
05-08 13:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	39	91¢	$36	0xd798ee…
05-08 13:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x853df7…
05-08 13:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	570	10¢	$57	0x47275a…
05-08 13:04:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	537	19¢	$100	0x047f79…
05-08 13:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xebb5f5…
05-08 13:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	56	27¢	$15	0x8ec8c5…
05-08 13:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x32acab…
05-08 13:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcaebc6…
05-08 12:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	83	18¢	$15	0x5aa6df…
05-08 12:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x6917f5…
05-08 12:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	63	20¢	$13	0x4c293f…
05-08 12:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xbb6860…
05-08 12:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0xa43e48…
05-08 12:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbe2cfa…
05-08 12:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x646425…
05-08 12:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	21	39¢	$8	0xac5c94…
05-08 12:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xf712af…
05-08 12:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x3cac73…
05-08 12:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x030f15…
05-08 12:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x664f29…
05-08 12:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	115	35¢	$40	0x081f35…
05-08 12:31:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xe37581…
05-08 12:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xe1e646…
05-08 12:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x4f91a2…
05-08 12:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9fb3ee…
05-08 12:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0xb87147…
04-25 01:42:54	will trump talk to keir starmer today	Yes	SELL	267	0¢	$0	0xe901b7…
04-24 13:01:14	btc updown 5m 1777035600	Down	BUY	65	14¢	$9	0xc3ac7c…
04-24 13:00:22	btc updown 5m 1777035600	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x3d5eaa…
04-24 12:58:20	btc updown 5m 1777035300	Down	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xc10897…
04-24 12:58:00	btc updown 5m 1777035300	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xc137dc…
04-24 11:05:26	will trump say bigly today	Yes	SELL	52	1¢	$1	0xa18304…
04-24 07:08:20	will trump say bigly today	Yes	BUY	54	3¢	$1	0x575913…
04-24 06:59:42	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	462	1¢	$6	0x82277a…
04-24 06:56:44	will trump talk to keir starmer today	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x705efe…
04-24 06:55:42	will trump talk to keir starmer today	Yes	BUY	264	6¢	$17	0x3c4f0e…
04-23 18:13:48	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x4a4781…
04-23 16:00:58	Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x4149a1…
04-23 16:00:50	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x50ec94…
04-23 16:00:44	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x07be57…
04-23 16:00:34	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x6c1f18…
04-23 16:00:28	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x9068da…
04-23 15:46:20	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	BUY	86	10¢	$9	0x6981e5…
04-23 15:42:34	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	496	0¢	$1	0xb98da5…
04-23 15:41:56	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	254	6¢	$15	0xca1c59…
04-23 15:41:42	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	0¢	$1	0xe7f35a…
04-12 18:10:01	btc updown 5m 1776017100	Down	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x62e3d8…
04-12 18:08:55	btc updown 5m 1776017100	Down	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x847a95…
04-12 17:03:43	btc updown 5m 1776013200	Up	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x028876…
04-12 16:49:21	btc updown 5m 1776012300	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x6991ad…
04-12 16:18:55	btc updown 5m 1776010500	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x6fb656…
04-12 16:04:01	btc updown 5m 1776009600	Up	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x009fad…
04-12 14:49:23	btc updown 5m 1776005100	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x72e883…
04-12 14:43:51	btc updown 5m 1776004800	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0e5cef…
04-12 14:39:01	btc updown 5m 1776004500	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3fb294…
04-12 14:23:41	btc updown 5m 1776003600	Up	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xd59dfc…
04-12 12:33:51	btc updown 5m 1775997000	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xb69032…
04-12 11:33:37	btc updown 5m 1775993400	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xcda912…
04-12 09:49:07	btc updown 5m 1775987100	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa13b55…
04-12 07:04:01	btc updown 5m 1775977200	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x136b63…
04-12 05:48:35	btc updown 5m 1775972700	Up	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xd676e5…
04-12 04:18:45	btc updown 5m 1775967300	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf5fdd5…
04-12 04:14:55	btc updown 5m 1775967000	Down	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0xa0f8df…
04-12 04:14:29	btc updown 5m 1775967000	Down	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x0e5d41…
04-12 03:39:47	btc updown 5m 1775964900	Down	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x04da49…
04-12 03:33:57	btc updown 5m 1775964600	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc6ceeb…
04-11 10:24:05	btc updown 5m 1775902800	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x9d608d…
04-11 10:23:49	btc updown 5m 1775902800	Up	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x16bcfe…
04-11 09:23:51	btc updown 5m 1775899200	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xf33854…