Modest-Quota — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

9 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$47

$47 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-08

last 05-14 14:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

86% 57% +$8

Politics

14% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes		-38	$-6	0¢	$-0	+$6	05-08 15:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 10?	1	$10	16	0	+16	Yes	+$6	05-10 10:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$6	0	38	-38	open	—	05-08 15:57
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 13?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	05-13 12:38
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	05-14 14:39
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12?	1	$5	15	0	+15	No	$-5	05-12 02:47
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	05-11 10:21
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	+$3	05-12 13:02
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 12?	1	$4	20	0	+20	No	$-4	05-12 14:53
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11?	1	$1	5	0	+5	No	$-1	05-11 13:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 14:39:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf10935…
05-13 12:38:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3455aa…
05-12 14:53:11	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x619c1c…
05-12 13:02:54	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x1795ce…
05-12 02:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0x278fa9…
05-11 13:18:21	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc2b4d4…
05-11 10:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0b973a…
05-10 10:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa8cd7c…
05-08 15:57:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	17¢	$6	0x65ed41…