Nocturnal-Rod — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$228

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.8%

Resolved

Trades

120

lifetime

Volume

$9.99K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 09-15 05:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

60% 13% -$24

Politics

19% 11% -$2

Crypto

13% 29% -$20

Tech

5% 0% -$1

Sports

3% 20% -$180

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$633	326	326	+0	No	$0	04-12 04:57
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	4	$441	223	223	+0	Yes	-$1	03-31 05:57
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	2	$436	220	220	+0	Yes	$0	04-07 11:49
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	2	$436	223	223	+0	No	$0	04-07 11:49
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$435	221	221	+0	No	$0	04-07 11:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$434	227	227	+0	No	$0	04-10 08:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	2	$434	217	217	+0	No	$0	04-10 08:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$432	222	222	+0	No	$0	04-10 08:44
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	2	$403	213	213	+0	No	$0	04-02 12:48
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	2	$402	201	201	+0	No	$0	04-06 05:08
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	2	$401	204	204	+0	No	$0	03-25 10:59
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$401	203	203	+0	No	$0	04-06 05:09
will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	2	$388	194	194	+0	No	$0	03-21 04:20
will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	2	$387	195	195	+0	No	$0	03-21 04:21
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	2	$318	160	160	+0	No	$0	03-18 03:07
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$318	165	165	+0	No	$0	03-18 03:08
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	05-04 06:46
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	2	$230	115	115	+0	No	$0	03-25 10:59
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 10c	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	$0	04-16 08:20
will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 29	2	$217	109	109	+0	No	$0	03-28 04:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	2	$200	101	101	+0	No	$0	03-21 04:21
highest temperature in wellington on march 26 2026 14c	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	$0	03-25 10:58
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	2	$200	102	102	+0	No	$0	04-06 05:09
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$144	75	75	+0	Yes	$0	05-26 04:01
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	2	$132	70	70	+0	open	—	05-28 12:55
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$122	61	61	+0	No	$0	03-31 05:55
2026 Balance of Power: Other	4	$90	45	45	+0	open	—	09-15 05:09
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?	2	$80	41	41	+0	No	$0	06-03 10:12
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$79	47	47	+0	No	-$1	03-23 12:04
nba mia cle 2026 03 25	1	$76	128	0	+128	Heat	-$76	03-25 11:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-15 05:09:07	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xe0b86d…
09-15 05:08:52	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6e32a4…
07-08 04:55:40	Will Carter Jensen win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xb66150…
07-08 04:55:31	Will Carter Jensen win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x2cfc90…
06-27 09:19:50	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x4ab2de…
06-27 09:19:44	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xa3602c…
06-21 07:38:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$22	0x89b65e…
06-21 07:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x175d6f…
06-16 11:22:27	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xd1de31…
06-16 11:22:21	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x34fd76…
06-12 10:27:18	will ethereum reach 2600 in june 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2b67a9…
06-12 10:27:06	will ethereum reach 2600 in june 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xec8858…
06-09 09:53:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x231fb0…
06-09 09:53:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x1c9be6…
06-06 09:08:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 7?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xfdefa1…
06-06 09:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 7?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xf0c918…
06-03 10:12:38	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x3e03b0…
06-03 10:12:20	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0xddbe02…
06-03 10:10:11	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0x2f649c…
05-31 12:06:29	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xfffff6…
05-31 12:06:20	Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfc758c…
05-28 12:55:43	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3cdbbf…
05-28 12:55:26	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	70	93¢	$66	0x4c5382…
05-28 12:55:20	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x983a5f…
05-26 04:01:29	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x91a787…
05-26 04:01:22	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xe92e85…
05-22 05:37:02	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x219811…
05-22 05:36:44	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x8ea7ec…
05-22 05:36:39	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x3a5cb4…
05-19 07:35:46	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc58abc…
05-15 13:34:20	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1b803e…
05-10 05:57:13	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	55	37¢	$20	0x82f847…
05-10 05:01:29	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8acf04…
05-04 16:57:48	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	55	35¢	$19	0x00d5ce…
05-04 16:57:00	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x66f708…
05-04 16:11:58	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x56e453…
05-04 16:11:20	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x4971a4…
05-04 16:08:50	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xa42249…
05-04 16:02:26	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x0a0394…
05-04 15:46:02	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xb43031…
05-04 14:42:52	Wild vs. Avalanche	Wild	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xcab14d…
05-04 06:46:58	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x5550b5…
05-04 06:46:52	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x88df62…
05-04 06:44:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x53135a…
05-04 06:44:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x1ce4df…
04-16 08:20:42	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 10c	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x137db3…
04-16 08:20:36	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 10c	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x982b4e…
04-12 04:57:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0xa0fc51…
04-12 04:57:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x6290ba…
04-10 08:44:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	SELL	222	97¢	$216	0x04df8a…
04-10 08:44:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	222	97¢	$216	0xbe22f9…
04-10 08:43:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	223	97¢	$216	0x77f885…
04-10 08:43:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	223	97¢	$217	0x81fc9e…
04-10 08:43:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	No	SELL	217	100¢	$217	0x2bd377…
04-10 08:43:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	No	BUY	217	100¢	$217	0xe056ea…
04-10 08:42:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	227	96¢	$217	0x29fd6b…
04-10 08:42:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	227	96¢	$217	0x209ea6…
04-07 11:50:15	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	221	98¢	$217	0x89774a…
04-07 11:50:07	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	221	99¢	$218	0x56cc53…
04-07 11:49:49	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	223	98¢	$218	0xe5e8f6…
04-07 11:49:39	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	223	98¢	$218	0x7836da…
04-07 11:49:23	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	220	99¢	$218	0x9a12f9…
04-07 11:49:15	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	220	99¢	$218	0x16399c…
04-06 05:15:03	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-06 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	35	49¢	$17	0x91189d…
04-06 05:09:35	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	SELL	203	98¢	$200	0x502d68…
04-06 05:09:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0x8378b4…
04-06 05:09:13	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	No	SELL	102	97¢	$100	0x719900…
04-06 05:09:03	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be between 180m and 190m	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xbf7d94…
04-06 05:08:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	No	SELL	201	100¢	$201	0xd1f6b4…
04-06 05:08:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0x57ca07…
04-06 05:07:43	will bitcoin reach 80k march 30 april 5	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe9241c…
04-02 12:50:51	will bitcoin reach 80k march 30 april 5	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x99fa5f…
04-02 12:48:55	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	213	94¢	$201	0x4d74cd…
04-02 12:48:15	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	213	95¢	$202	0x39cd85…
03-31 17:06:25	nba por lac 2026 03 31	Clippers	BUY	90	66¢	$59	0x4ece13…
03-31 05:57:19	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x2e91b3…
03-31 05:57:13	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x816bcd…
03-31 05:55:37	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0x064a62…
03-31 05:55:31	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0xa1b4de…
03-29 12:34:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0xe303a5…
03-28 08:28:55	nba bos atl 2026 03 30	Celtics	BUY	93	56¢	$52	0x511e2e…
03-28 07:48:27	nba bos atl 2026 03 30	Celtics	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x89d70e…
03-28 06:58:59	nba bos atl 2026 03 30	Celtics	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x300d7c…
03-28 04:14:43	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xa0f10b…
03-28 04:12:05	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x1abf7b…
03-28 04:10:31	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x151a8a…
03-28 04:10:05	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$4	0x80f77c…
03-28 04:10:05	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6d518b…
03-28 04:01:17	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 29	No	SELL	109	100¢	$109	0xa195e2…
03-28 04:01:01	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 29	No	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x2d2d39…
03-27 10:45:57	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 10:45 UTC	Up	BUY	33	49¢	$16	0xc6dbc4…
03-25 11:59:51	nba mia cle 2026 03 25	Cavaliers	BUY	128	59¢	$76	0xdbf500…
03-25 10:59:29	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	204	98¢	$200	0xdaf2fd…
03-25 10:59:19	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$201	0x45e3cc…
03-25 10:59:01	microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	No	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0xaa59d0…
03-25 10:58:53	microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x2f80dc…
03-25 10:58:33	highest temperature in wellington on march 26 2026 14c	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x671de5…
03-25 10:58:25	highest temperature in wellington on march 26 2026 14c	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4f574d…
03-23 12:18:39	nba sas mia 2026 03 23	Spurs	BUY	110	65¢	$72	0x1f93fe…
03-23 12:14:05	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	57	49¢	$28	0x075012…