Muted-Assurance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.8%

Resolved

Trades

263

lifetime

Volume

$6.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-14 13:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 39% $-46

Politics

33% — —

Other

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 66k on february 23	11	$835	888	888	+0	open	—	02-23 03:42
will trump say western hemisphere during the state of the union address	3	$623	449	449	+0	open	—	02-25 04:02
ethereum above 1900 on february 17	3	$522	1,925	925	+1,000	open	—	02-16 21:59
will trump say monroe during the state of the union address 457	16	$344	938	50	+888	open	—	02-23 04:59
bitcoin above 66k on february 17	6	$296	5,076	0	+5,076	open	—	02-17 00:07
will trump say lincoln during the state of the union address 795	2	$273	342	342	+0	open	—	02-24 23:02
btc updown 15m 1767410100	8	$192	115	185	-70	open	—	01-03 03:27
will trump say white house during the state of the union address	3	$190	118	118	+0	open	—	02-25 04:02
bitcoin above 58k on february 23	3	$164	6,551	6,551	+0	open	—	02-19 03:40
will the us invade iran by march 31	6	$155	903	903	+0	open	—	02-23 00:31
btc updown 5m 1772863500	1	$150	521	0	+521	open	—	03-07 06:07
ethereum above 1700 on february 28	3	$131	1,898	0	+1,898	open	—	02-23 00:59
will trump say zohran or mamdani during the state of the union address 273	7	$122	566	566	-0	open	—	02-23 00:35
btc updown 15m 1767411000	5	$115	286	0	+286	open	—	01-03 03:37
eth updown 15m 1767412800	10	$113	378	93	+285	open	—	01-03 04:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	6	$101	100	100	+0	Up	+$61	05-09 21:29
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	4	$88	502	0	+502	Yes	$-88	05-10 20:23
will there be 1416 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	3	$85	60	60	+0	open	—	02-23 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	5	$83	75	75	+0	Up	+$43	05-09 22:39
will trump say greenland during the state of the union address	2	$81	138	0	+138	open	—	02-24 23:04
eth updown 15m 1767411900	16	$79	362	151	+211	open	—	01-03 03:59
btc updown 15m 1767411900	3	$77	370	0	+370	open	—	01-03 03:52
ethereum up or down february 5 7pm et	2	$75	85	85	+0	open	—	02-06 00:35
ethereum above 3300 on january 12	1	$74	2,550	0	+2,550	open	—	01-12 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	6	$73	55	55	+0	Up	+$23	05-09 21:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	6	$71	55	55	+0	Up	+$31	05-09 22:42
will trump say mr speaker during the 2026 state of the union address 379	2	$71	42	42	+0	open	—	02-23 00:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$61	37	37	+0	Down	+$11	05-10 21:59
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	4	$58	68	68	+0	open	—	05-14 13:05
will there be less than 8 inches of snow in nyc this weekend	7	$56	766	766	+0	open	—	02-23 01:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 13:05:25	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	SELL	68	37¢	$25	0xebe3f6…
05-13 04:50:30	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2563b5…
05-13 04:50:16	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xbb3e14…
05-13 04:50:06	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xff2848…
05-10 21:59:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	37	98¢	$36	0x7156f3…
05-10 21:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x914b07…
05-10 21:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xb2ad90…
05-10 21:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1f0642…
05-10 21:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x6917c6…
05-10 21:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x2c6364…
05-10 20:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb59bc5…
05-10 20:23:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	252	18¢	$45	0xc5440b…
05-10 20:23:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	120	17¢	$20	0x9d1c54…
05-10 20:22:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	120	17¢	$20	0x00dfbe…
05-10 20:22:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xa35941…
05-09 23:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	Up	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x8de935…
05-09 23:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x08e1b5…
05-09 23:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xbc9b5d…
05-09 23:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xe84e1f…
05-09 23:12:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x6d3c85…
05-09 22:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xe57394…
05-09 22:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x2d3212…
05-09 22:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf8d88c…
05-09 22:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x2ed6a4…
05-09 22:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xfa47d2…
05-09 22:53:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x67b22a…
05-09 22:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xaff1da…
05-09 22:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x3c9d5c…
05-09 22:49:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	SELL	137	1¢	$1	0xb98d6c…
05-09 22:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x6b1389…
05-09 22:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x10590a…
05-09 22:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xeaf594…
05-09 22:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x083819…
05-09 22:45:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x25ce86…
05-09 22:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x93a40e…
05-09 22:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x0f06c1…
05-09 22:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x2a1c15…
05-09 22:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xbfdc4d…
05-09 22:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x6ea86f…
05-09 22:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xab4765…
05-09 22:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe6e179…
05-09 22:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	35	93¢	$33	0xdeac15…
05-09 22:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x19c190…
05-09 22:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x34d04f…
05-09 22:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x4ea4aa…
05-09 22:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x7c95d0…
05-09 22:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x198531…
05-09 22:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	75	84¢	$63	0xbdaa2e…
05-09 22:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xc1488e…
05-09 22:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xd16522…
05-09 22:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xb0269f…
05-09 22:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd8fa34…
05-09 22:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xa441ee…
05-09 22:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x91845d…
05-09 22:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc91dc8…
05-09 21:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x643951…
05-09 21:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x057d29…
05-09 21:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x369e8d…
05-09 21:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfbfc4a…
05-09 21:45:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5e07f1…
05-09 21:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe1704a…
05-09 21:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x76ec5a…
05-09 21:43:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	90	4¢	$4	0x8e2603…
05-09 21:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x57903b…
05-09 21:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xccbfea…
05-09 21:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf9f134…
05-09 21:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbacb6e…
05-09 21:39:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xcd944d…
05-09 21:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe2579d…
05-09 21:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9b0d57…
05-09 21:36:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x14b390…
05-09 21:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x59aeb9…
05-09 21:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x483436…
05-09 21:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb8700d…
05-09 21:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	75	98¢	$73	0xedb438…
05-09 21:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	25	31¢	$8	0x47493f…
05-09 21:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xc6a1d5…
05-09 21:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xef7a74…
05-09 21:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x88ad70…
05-09 21:25:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x02ebd6…
05-09 21:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xd1bfad…
05-09 21:21:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x8c18f4…
05-09 21:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa31374…
05-09 21:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xffe686…
05-09 21:19:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x0a4fee…
05-09 21:17:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xec2be9…
05-09 21:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe100f2…
05-09 21:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x1a734f…
05-09 21:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	55	88¢	$48	0xd82dc7…
05-09 21:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x90ceba…
05-09 21:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x57aa50…
05-09 21:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x25664b…
05-09 21:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xaef19d…
05-09 21:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd10cd1…
05-09 21:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x48626e…
05-09 21:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xa761ab…
04-11 01:07:41	bitcoin above 72600 on april 10 2026 10pm et	No	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x56d6ea…
04-11 01:07:19	bitcoin above 72600 on april 10 2026 10pm et	No	BUY	74	11¢	$8	0x6b277c…
04-11 01:07:01	bitcoin above 72600 on april 10 2026 10pm et	No	BUY	117	11¢	$13	0x45e4d2…
04-11 01:05:31	bitcoin above 72600 on april 10 2026 10pm et	No	BUY	120	12¢	$14	0x63d19f…