Thick-Pile — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

57.0%

Resolved

101

Trades

1,000

lifetime

Volume

$4.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-14 20:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

68% 39% -$82

Crypto

25% 57% -$14

Other

6% 47% -$18

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Sports

0% 0% -$9

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes		+16	$6	30¢	$5	-$1	07-14 20:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	76	$379	334	326	+8	Yes	+$6	04-07 22:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	73	$376	327	259	+68	Yes	+$23	04-07 22:51
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	53	$319	302	298	+4	Yes	-$5	04-07 21:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	54	$301	291	195	+96	Yes	-$52	04-07 22:34
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	43	$222	252	241	+11	Yes	-$4	04-02 02:50
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	55	$214	223	223	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 21:49
Iran leadership change by April 30?	47	$177	229	227	+1	No	+$5	04-29 20:00
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	30	$173	173	164	+9	Yes	-$2	04-03 07:42
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	34	$142	185	185	+0	Yes	-$2	04-07 21:49
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	41	$139	150	150	+0	No	+$4	04-29 20:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	81	$132	8,188	306	+7,883	No	-$15	04-02 16:12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	21	$119	80	80	-0	Yes	+$0	04-07 22:33
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	9	$118	65	65	+0	No	+$2	04-07 22:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	46	$113	21,122	181	+20,941	No	-$21	04-01 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	9	$83	62	42	+20	Up	+$1	05-05 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	8	$78	62	45	+16	Up	+$6	05-05 21:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	3	$62	45	34	+11	Down	+$2	05-04 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	9	$61	47	34	+13	Down	+$5	05-05 21:44
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	3	$58	43	43	+0	Yes	+$18	04-12 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	8	$58	92	23	+69	Down	+$8	05-04 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	7	$56	34	30	+4	Down	+$4	05-05 21:33
iran leadership change by march 31	33	$50	474	31	+444	No	-$4	04-01 04:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	7	$49	61	0	+61	Up	-$35	05-05 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	6	$47	53	0	+53	Up	-$6	05-05 18:09
Iran leadership change by May 31?	11	$39	37	36	+1	No	+$3	04-29 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	8	$39	47	0	+47	Down	+$8	05-05 22:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	5	$39	33	33	+0	Down	+$9	05-04 22:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	3	$35	38	0	+38	Down	+$3	05-04 23:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	5	$35	42	0	+42	Up	-$3	05-05 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	7	$32	37	17	+20	Up	+$2	05-05 21:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 20:12:32	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x2ca784…
07-14 20:11:53	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xf03e2d…
07-14 20:11:08	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xfae18c…
07-14 20:00:58	Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xca5e77…
06-16 21:39:02	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x07a22d…
06-16 21:38:49	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6c5e00…
06-16 21:37:58	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0xfdb700…
06-16 21:37:31	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x6063d1…
06-08 18:35:04	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9f601c…
05-14 18:57:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x691608…
05-14 18:56:33	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x322730…
05-05 22:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xd16a17…
05-05 22:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf5b251…
05-05 22:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd8e61d…
05-05 22:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xec0cfe…
05-05 22:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x7dc1a1…
05-05 22:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x5be0b3…
05-05 22:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xb60dc9…
05-05 22:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xa620f6…
05-05 22:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x700ae1…
05-05 22:41:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x25a75c…
05-05 22:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xce19b3…
05-05 22:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x33bc21…
05-05 22:38:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x208603…
05-05 22:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x6b5270…
05-05 22:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xbfc401…
05-05 22:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xc2043b…
05-05 22:36:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x96bd81…
05-05 22:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x27536e…
05-05 22:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xe29852…
05-05 22:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x474b18…
05-05 22:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x11c9f1…
05-05 22:26:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xe36862…
05-05 22:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xf9555d…
05-05 22:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfcbffc…
05-05 22:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x57f258…
05-05 22:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xa7868d…
05-05 22:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8d598c…
05-05 22:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x2e24ec…
05-05 22:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x1a31ca…
05-05 22:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x536a8b…
05-05 22:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x5a55e2…
05-05 22:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xd34725…
05-05 22:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xa6b7e0…
05-05 22:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x9be361…
05-05 22:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xd9b1a8…
05-05 22:12:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x4e1e89…
05-05 22:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb300fd…
05-05 22:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x69b280…
05-05 22:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x0e06ce…
05-05 22:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5d6b6b…
05-05 22:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x3ebda0…
05-05 22:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x64876f…
05-05 22:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xea61cc…
05-05 22:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x831a04…
05-05 22:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x581ee5…
05-05 22:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa8b985…
05-05 22:03:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x6ff7a3…
05-05 22:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x3f5b7a…
05-05 21:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x334485…
05-05 21:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0d8508…
05-05 21:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3e1d8f…
05-05 21:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa30004…
05-05 21:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xfc09de…
05-05 21:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x4097bf…
05-05 21:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x602074…
05-05 21:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xe2afb8…
05-05 21:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x322519…
05-05 21:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x246c1d…
05-05 21:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7009f8…
05-05 21:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xbba131…
05-05 21:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x9227db…
05-05 21:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x0db87b…
05-05 21:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xfb4adc…
05-05 21:47:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xe6131a…
05-05 21:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x4fc883…
05-05 21:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x6c45dd…
05-05 21:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x1bc768…
05-05 21:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xd408c7…
05-05 21:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0xfd8222…
05-05 21:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x40e27d…
05-05 21:42:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9d8ccd…
05-05 21:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x549ae9…
05-05 21:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x2c151e…
05-05 21:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x72d0c6…
05-05 21:40:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x587376…
05-05 21:40:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xa8497d…
05-05 21:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x2e9855…
05-05 21:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	45	93¢	$42	0xca48e5…
05-05 21:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x539771…
05-05 21:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x14ba10…
05-05 21:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x584bb4…
05-05 21:36:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xe6dd29…
05-05 21:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x73d4b8…
05-05 21:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x397a26…
05-05 21:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x5222df…
05-05 21:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0xe3d9f5…
05-05 21:32:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2c4035…
05-05 21:31:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x1c4d0c…
05-05 21:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x542f5f…