Unconscious-Airbag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.67K

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

122

Trades

983

lifetime

Volume

$140.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$143

Open exposure

$17.8K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-29 09:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

93% 56% +$19,585

Politics

5% 100% +$1,254

Sports

2% 27% -$385

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+7,751	-$755	88¢	$6.9K	+$7,614	10-23 14:13
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	+30,350	$6,069	16¢	$5.0K	-$1,062	10-26 10:13
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Yes	+20,000	$3,039	8¢	$1.6K	-$1,439	09-16 11:37
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	+3,725	$3,166	36¢	$1.3K	-$1,832	10-08 09:04
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,736	$982	57¢	$998	+$16	10-29 09:06
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+1,652	$756	46¢	$768	+$12	10-10 12:16
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	-629	-$403	88¢	$-557	-$154	06-13 14:31
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+390	$199	64¢	$252	+$53	10-05 12:59
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+393	$212	58¢	$230	+$18	10-07 12:02
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	+921	$732	22¢	$198	-$534	10-07 11:51
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+5,000	$15	0¢	$5	-$10	10-10 12:45
Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+1,774	$14	0¢	$3	-$12	10-10 12:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	43	$16.3K	21,451	13,700	+7,751	open	—	10-23 14:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$10.0K	8,521	8,521	+0	No	+$849	07-13 02:13
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	9	$9.9K	5,887	5,887	+0	No	+$1,311	07-28 18:47
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	11	$7.2K	4,269	4,269	+0	No	+$1,161	07-06 04:07
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	6	$6.6K	3,867	3,867	+0	No	+$638	06-28 03:07
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	26	$6.1K	30,350	0	+30,350	open	—	10-26 10:13
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$5.7K	2,930	2,930	+0	No	+$47	07-29 22:21
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	8	$5.1K	3,832	3,832	+0	Yes	+$2,154	07-28 18:46
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?	7	$4.5K	3,212	3,212	+0	No	+$1,509	09-21 12:02
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?	14	$4.1K	2,761	2,761	+0	Yes	+$1,428	09-01 18:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$3.9K	2,242	2,242	+0	No	+$418	05-21 10:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$3.3K	1,806	1,806	+0	No	+$183	06-24 00:00
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	2	$3.2K	3,725	0	+3,725	open	—	10-08 09:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$3.1K	1,762	1,762	+0	No	+$211	05-04 12:10
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	28	$3.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	09-16 11:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$2.5K	1,484	1,484	+0	No	+$342	04-23 19:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	6	$2.2K	2,100	2,100	+0	No	+$439	10-29 09:05
Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	14	$2.0K	1,197	1,197	+0	No	+$388	07-25 14:46
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	3	$1.9K	1,549	700	+849	No	+$279	10-29 09:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$1.8K	935	935	+0	No	+$62	06-07 01:22
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	5	$1.5K	2,432	620	+1,812	No	+$1,498	08-29 15:47
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	4	$1.4K	1,139	1,139	+0	No	+$693	07-18 05:44
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	4	$1.4K	1,762	837	+925	Yes	+$1,026	09-23 13:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	1	$1.3K	1,665	0	+1,665	No	+$366	05-21 10:45
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	9	$1.2K	1,320	903	+417	No	+$250	09-28 16:09
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.61% in September?	2	$1.2K	1,526	50	+1,476	No	+$362	09-11 09:20
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	1	$1.2K	1,322	0	+1,322	Yes	+$147	10-05 13:32
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$350	06-27 19:58
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?	13	$1.0K	765	765	+0	No	+$439	09-14 22:23
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	49	$1.0K	700	700	+0	No	+$197	08-13 23:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:06:58	Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,736	57¢	$982	0x2592e9…
10-29 09:06:43	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	400	98¢	$390	0x30d4f6…
10-29 09:05:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$978	0xc04b61…
10-26 10:15:12	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0xa78825…
10-26 10:13:36	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	15¢	$52	0x9bcbc2…
10-26 10:12:17	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	1,428	10¢	$147	0x7076e4…
10-23 14:16:02	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	474	15¢	$71	0xb10916…
10-23 14:13:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,400	88¢	$1,232	0xf5eb7f…
10-18 17:08:17	Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?	Yes	BUY	298	0¢	$1	0x092205…
10-18 17:04:41	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	1,190	29¢	$347	0x03f10f…
10-18 17:04:39	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xe3c418…
10-18 17:03:08	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	218	17¢	$36	0xc21fde…
10-18 16:56:20	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x1cb0bc…
10-12 15:08:29	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	1,500	7¢	$108	0x43ddbd…
10-10 12:45:30	Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$15	0xcffe61…
10-10 12:44:57	Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	1,774	1¢	$14	0x025ad8…
10-10 12:43:12	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	658	30¢	$197	0xa47e53…
10-10 12:42:49	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	212	80¢	$169	0x7622ad…
10-10 12:31:06	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xff9c24…
10-10 12:30:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	500	82¢	$410	0x0ec1d5…
10-10 12:30:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x69dd09…
10-10 12:16:45	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x9c5b1e…
10-09 05:27:44	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xe6bfbb…
10-08 15:25:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October?	No	BUY	65	72¢	$47	0x328649…
10-08 15:24:30	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.49% in October?	No	BUY	390	65¢	$254	0x9516b7…
10-08 14:06:03	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x24f8d8…
10-08 11:17:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in October?	Yes	BUY	294	31¢	$91	0xd82f1c…
10-08 09:30:42	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x05bddf…
10-08 09:04:07	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,351	85¢	$2,859	0x82f239…
10-08 09:03:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3,600	81¢	$2,916	0x75f212…
10-08 07:04:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.38% in October?	Yes	BUY	406	55¢	$225	0x136f9a…
10-07 12:02:20	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	393	54¢	$212	0x4d7ab6…
10-07 12:01:08	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	1,549	80¢	$1,246	0xbf3b36…
10-07 12:00:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,500	82¢	$1,230	0xb594ff…
10-07 11:51:10	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	921	79¢	$732	0x3734f4…
10-07 11:45:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?	No	BUY	62	66¢	$41	0x2fcc05…
10-07 09:47:14	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	526	66¢	$344	0xd97b6f…
10-06 01:33:32	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$15	0x7cb785…
10-05 23:42:08	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	SELL	50	72¢	$36	0x3bb1df…
10-05 23:42:05	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	SELL	110	72¢	$79	0x0e39d5…
10-05 18:25:04	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	252	57¢	$143	0x6da4ad…
10-05 17:05:40	will the 5 year treasury yield dip below 4pt70 in october	No	BUY	232	81¢	$188	0x233188…
10-05 17:04:59	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	374	82¢	$307	0x2a11d2…
10-05 16:57:22	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% in October?	No	BUY	123	70¢	$87	0x4246bb…
10-05 16:57:04	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.83% in October?	No	BUY	235	65¢	$151	0x044110…
10-05 13:32:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,322	89¢	$1,174	0x2a3505…
10-05 13:17:23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	986	77¢	$760	0x76d1f0…
10-05 13:16:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xe1818b…
10-05 13:15:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd8850c…
10-05 12:59:26	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	390	51¢	$199	0xe84c15…
10-05 12:47:10	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x99d3c2…
10-03 11:46:42	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xdb09da…
10-01 16:19:51	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0xd811dd…
10-01 13:58:33	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0xa7f8fc…
10-01 13:35:44	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	26	50¢	$13	0x1f8526…
10-01 13:32:29	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	180	39¢	$70	0x59214f…
10-01 06:49:03	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x550d9f…
10-01 05:16:54	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x6a79b3…
10-01 01:48:30	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	23	50¢	$12	0x782802…
10-01 01:48:24	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	15	50¢	$7	0x00e9a8…
09-30 23:35:47	Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	9	50¢	$4	0xaf68d1…
09-29 15:39:57	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	212	69¢	$146	0x27d2ea…
09-29 15:39:33	will the 30 year treasury yield hit 5pt90 before 2027	Yes	BUY	658	25¢	$166	0xba4dfe…
09-28 16:10:33	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	BUY	500	47¢	$235	0x2f9064…
09-28 16:09:41	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	286	79¢	$225	0x556ff7…
09-28 15:48:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,300	78¢	$1,014	0x4c3d75…
09-24 20:41:27	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x950cdf…
09-24 20:34:36	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x280adb…
09-24 20:34:27	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xf4aa6e…
09-24 20:29:02	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x49918b…
09-24 20:23:24	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xdbab3f…
09-24 20:19:48	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x7fadf6…
09-24 20:14:09	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xfd277f…
09-24 20:10:11	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x6e30c9…
09-24 19:59:36	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xc6eb20…
09-24 19:54:33	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x817e7f…
09-24 19:50:08	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xb96c27…
09-24 19:31:39	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xbe87c4…
09-24 19:30:44	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x170b20…
09-24 19:19:47	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xe81a96…
09-24 19:19:26	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x67c9b0…
09-24 19:09:05	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x042b9a…
09-24 19:07:29	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x5d9dc8…
09-24 18:57:09	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xbfdbf0…
09-24 18:52:17	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xee387e…
09-24 18:46:53	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x4fc452…
09-24 18:41:47	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x8040f0…
09-24 18:26:21	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x795c6a…
09-24 18:10:21	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xcee211…
09-24 17:58:53	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0xb7001e…
09-24 17:42:05	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x5f7a3b…
09-24 17:37:02	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x55b2f9…
09-24 17:15:50	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0xbd66e4…
09-24 17:05:05	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x45f64c…
09-24 16:55:30	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x3dca2f…
09-24 16:35:05	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	53	3¢	$2	0x2cb7a6…
09-24 16:31:59	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	293	3¢	$8	0xe79660…
09-24 16:29:23	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x6b5f69…
09-24 16:28:54	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x781f1b…
09-24 16:28:53	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xa24449…