Dependent-Deviation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$63

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

150

Trades

1,215

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 05-05 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 71% $-63

Other

10% — —

Sports

4% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 359 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	2	$653	353	353	+0	open	—	04-29 15:44
Lakers vs. Rockets	2	$612	350	350	+0	open	—	04-27 07:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	3	$500	625	0	+625	open	—	04-30 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	23	$476	261	261	+0	open	—	04-30 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	2	$465	274	274	+0	open	—	04-30 05:18
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	4	$447	300	300	+0	open	—	04-25 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	5	$424	361	336	+25	open	—	04-29 09:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	2	$419	233	233	+0	open	—	04-29 09:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$418	230	230	+0	open	—	04-29 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$404	211	211	+0	open	—	04-29 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	2	$400	518	0	+518	open	—	04-30 06:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$400	515	0	+515	open	—	04-30 06:24
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	1	$360	370	0	+370	open	—	04-29 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$333	225	225	+0	open	—	04-29 10:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	3	$315	366	243	+123	open	—	04-29 10:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$300	437	0	+437	open	—	04-29 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	3	$300	637	0	+637	open	—	04-30 04:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	3	$300	655	0	+655	open	—	04-30 04:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	1	$300	326	0	+326	open	—	04-29 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	3	$300	415	0	+415	open	—	04-30 07:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	3	$300	348	0	+348	open	—	04-30 06:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	6	$297	239	239	+0	open	—	04-30 04:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	2	$273	263	263	+0	open	—	04-29 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$267	213	213	+0	open	—	04-29 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	2	$261	172	172	+0	open	—	04-29 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	2	$252	164	164	+0	open	—	04-29 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	3	$222	269	43	+225	open	—	04-29 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$221	122	122	+0	open	—	04-29 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	2	$210	343	0	+343	open	—	04-29 15:48
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?	4	$204	628	628	+0	open	—	04-25 14:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 18:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xe162ec…
05-05 18:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa1d46a…
05-05 18:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xb55cc4…
05-05 18:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x888b3d…
05-05 18:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2d1ffb…
05-05 18:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xa1f286…
05-05 18:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xad0973…
05-05 18:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x6b064c…
05-05 18:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xc6d605…
05-05 18:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xad6d8f…
05-05 18:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x35e156…
05-05 18:06:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x2458e6…
05-05 18:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x562436…
05-05 18:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xa3a73a…
05-05 17:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xccde67…
05-05 17:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd4b052…
05-05 17:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xcee824…
05-05 17:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xc3a42b…
05-05 17:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x9f5e9e…
05-05 17:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x702c30…
05-05 17:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x2fb268…
05-05 17:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x51c1b7…
05-05 17:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0a89a0…
05-05 17:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xdc1f29…
05-05 17:21:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x4fa98d…
05-05 17:19:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7378c0…
05-05 17:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x762ce4…
05-05 17:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc316f1…
05-05 17:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x04e330…
05-05 17:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x266d53…
05-05 17:06:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x2e0b09…
05-05 17:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x69727b…
05-05 16:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x1b001b…
05-05 16:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x146a8e…
05-05 16:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2468d1…
05-05 16:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xdd1cc5…
05-05 16:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x40d34f…
05-05 16:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xc08744…
05-05 16:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x63586f…
05-05 16:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x4a2ce3…
05-05 16:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x9cc0c7…
05-05 16:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x67c83c…
05-05 16:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xd10968…
05-05 16:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc46e9f…
05-05 16:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xf6316b…
05-05 16:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x6c62dc…
05-05 16:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe3f243…
05-05 16:12:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x0e9d2b…
05-05 16:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x710f6d…
05-05 16:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x63e0dc…
05-05 16:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe059e0…
05-05 16:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xb50fa5…
05-05 15:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x44c1b4…
05-05 15:57:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x040636…
05-05 15:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x1fac6c…
05-05 15:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x1c1dfb…
05-05 15:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8887be…
05-05 15:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xa371b8…
05-05 15:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x415031…
05-05 15:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x385add…
05-05 15:35:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x50d140…
05-05 15:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xbcfb97…
05-05 15:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x321ffd…
05-05 15:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x5aae27…
05-05 15:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6a8d1d…
05-05 15:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x42ad99…
05-05 15:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x408ae8…
05-05 15:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7df44f…
05-05 15:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0aa48c…
05-05 15:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xd37085…
05-05 15:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x160a53…
05-05 14:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7bb5ce…
05-05 14:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xbd0fef…
05-05 14:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x8bc961…
05-05 14:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xbc6a2e…
05-05 14:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x920fba…
05-05 14:47:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xfca40c…
05-05 14:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xf84ce4…
05-05 14:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x17b2b3…
05-05 14:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x19cf91…
05-05 14:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x7a2be9…
05-05 14:38:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3614f9…
05-05 14:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xd21e80…
05-05 14:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x1369f9…
05-05 14:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x78c3af…
05-05 14:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xbd3e0f…
05-05 14:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x3424d9…
05-05 14:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xc7a670…
05-05 14:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xb4f924…
05-05 14:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7f15e6…
05-05 14:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xdde1b3…
05-05 14:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3c99dc…
05-05 14:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf0ea5a…
05-05 04:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xac9086…
05-05 04:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xbadfa0…
05-05 03:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x20696f…
05-05 03:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xdf66e6…
05-05 03:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x935a8c…
05-05 03:46:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x0e174e…
05-05 03:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x41dfa8…