Winged-Hay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$64

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

73.8%

Resolved

248

Trades

363

lifetime

Volume

$838

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 09-01 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 62% +$11

Other

26% 60% -$61

Sports

12% 52% -$13

Politics

8% 74% -$3

Tech

2% 80% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-1	-$1	99¢	$-1	$0	07-15 17:24
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-1	-$1	99¢	$-1	$0	07-15 17:24
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	-2	-$1	26¢	$-1	+$1	05-06 15:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$49	32	32	+0	Up	+$15	05-11 20:21
Ducks vs. Oilers	2	$42	22	22	+0	Oilers	+$2	04-29 05:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$26	19	19	+0	Up	+$6	05-20 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	4	$24	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$23	112	12	+100	Up	+$1	05-11 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	2	$23	15	15	+0	Up	+$3	05-14 02:08
will valve add cache to the map pool by april 30 2026	3	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$0	04-27 10:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$18	9	9	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 14:23
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	1	$18	111	0	+111	No	-$18	07-02 23:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Down	+$4	05-11 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$16	12	12	+0	Up	+$8	05-13 06:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	2	$15	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$14	10	9	+0	Up	+$5	04-27 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	3	$14	111	11	+100	Up	+$2	05-20 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	5	$14	16	0	+16	Down	+$2	05-14 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	1	$14	28	0	+28	Up	+$14	04-28 01:54
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	1	$13	14	0	+14	Yes	+$1	06-22 18:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 06:22
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$12	8	9	-1	Yes	+$1	05-11 20:16
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	2	$10	303	303	+0	No	+$0	04-27 11:28
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)	1	$10	38	0	+38	Magic	-$10	04-28 02:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$10	29	0	+29	Up	-$10	05-20 03:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$9	25	0	+25	Up	-$9	05-14 02:19
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.0 on May 1, 2026?	2	$8	78	75	+3	No	-$2	04-28 00:47
Golden Knights vs. Utah	5	$8	7	7	+0	Golden Knights	$0	04-28 05:11
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$7	694	611	+83	No	+$1	04-29 03:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	7	$7	7	5	+1	Down	+$0	04-28 08:03
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	2	$6	551	0	+551	Yes	-$6	04-25 20:09
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	2	$6	33	0	+33	No	-$6	04-27 15:17
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30?	2	$6	43	0	+43	No	-$6	04-27 15:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 18:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x441297…
09-01 18:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x95ea7b…
09-01 18:06:57	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x209d4f…
07-15 17:28:46	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xca934a…
07-15 17:24:40	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x47c542…
07-15 17:24:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x4c943a…
07-15 17:24:25	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x2195ea…
07-15 17:24:20	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x633d6d…
07-15 17:24:13	Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x0a3b58…
07-02 23:07:17	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	111	16¢	$18	0xd88ac8…
06-22 18:57:59	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x6e5c78…
05-20 03:40:51	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xc3b834…
05-20 03:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb4ebb8…
05-20 03:32:32	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x13eee7…
05-20 03:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0x131c2a…
05-20 03:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x810f78…
05-20 03:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x68306d…
05-20 03:07:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0x0f4474…
05-20 03:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x8a8a9b…
05-20 02:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x462296…
05-20 02:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x1238b8…
05-20 01:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9c86c9…
05-20 01:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xcc2c35…
05-20 01:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x350729…
05-14 02:31:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xe95681…
05-14 02:29:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x364cfa…
05-14 02:28:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x731e18…
05-14 02:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf89c89…
05-14 02:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc4d46f…
05-14 02:19:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x470f22…
05-14 02:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x2eb491…
05-14 02:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xa0ee6c…
05-14 02:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe8139c…
05-14 02:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7ee974…
05-14 02:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7029f5…
05-14 02:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0de117…
05-14 02:08:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0x4a139e…
05-14 02:06:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x59b866…
05-13 14:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x3b526f…
05-13 14:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x8a44c9…
05-13 14:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6b13fb…
05-13 14:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xced1e9…
05-13 14:32:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0xe45850…
05-13 14:30:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x5467f6…
05-13 06:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb5610b…
05-13 06:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x63d252…
05-13 06:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0x3c3816…
05-13 06:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x2f3de2…
05-13 06:15:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x16d736…
05-13 06:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x30081a…
05-12 02:36:21	Avalanche vs. Wild	Wild	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xaf9e6c…
05-12 02:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8c008c…
05-12 02:29:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0xe05ccc…
05-12 02:29:05	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xdcf77f…
05-11 23:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xcc37a2…
05-11 23:34:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xa1eb12…
05-11 23:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x15b8b3…
05-11 23:30:18	Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs Five Fears (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage	Five Fears	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x17081d…
05-11 23:30:14	Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8d24e6…
05-11 21:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xa8eafe…
05-11 21:19:55	Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Twisted Minds (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage	G2 Esports	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xe0d6d4…
05-11 21:19:48	Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x09f61e…
05-11 21:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x23eae6…
05-11 21:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x41b35f…
05-11 21:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x28c7e9…
05-11 21:13:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb8eba3…
05-11 21:13:32	Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May?	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x508ed5…
05-11 21:13:06	Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x08c60a…
05-11 21:12:55	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4b5101…
05-11 21:12:45	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xbe7247…
05-11 21:12:36	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd12354…
05-11 21:12:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x874f37…
05-11 21:11:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd4dea2…
05-11 21:10:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x1d45fa…
05-11 21:09:01	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9c30d7…
05-11 21:08:55	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe718cc…
05-11 21:08:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x148085…
05-11 21:07:16	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8f7d88…
05-11 21:07:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9fadae…
05-11 21:06:23	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb294f5…
05-11 21:05:25	Thunder vs. Lakers	Thunder	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x07883c…
05-11 21:04:59	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8516ea…
05-11 20:59:25	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x19d7d8…
05-11 20:55:27	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x4ec8b1…
05-11 20:54:20	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd12a50…
05-11 20:53:44	Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Twisted Minds (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage	G2 Esports	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x516060…
05-11 20:53:02	Rainbow Six Siege: CAG Osaka vs Five Fears (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage	Five Fears	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xdc7d59…
05-11 20:52:42	Will CD Tondela win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc27bf5…
05-11 20:52:14	Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xace13d…
05-11 20:51:59	Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x98434a…
05-11 20:51:45	Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x684fef…
05-11 20:51:31	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xac34e2…
05-11 20:51:13	Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2b0b7c…
05-11 20:50:52	Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x2207a1…
05-11 20:28:58	Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x241e8a…
05-11 20:27:32	Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x96fab2…
05-11 20:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x717ef9…
05-11 20:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	32	54¢	$17	0xf92d81…
05-11 20:16:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0xfe894f…
05-11 20:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5c970f…