Determined-Mug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16.3K

Unrealized P&L

+$810

Hit rate

79.9%

Resolved

7,874

Trades

41,554

lifetime

Volume

$869.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$22.5K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 20:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 227 days

Categories

Other

60% 93% +$9,940

Sports

32% 77% +$6,800

Politics

8% 69% -$775

Tech

0% 100% +$320

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 505 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+4,290	$4,060	98¢	$4.2K	+$140	10-02 18:20
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-3,285	-$679	42¢	$-1386	-$707	10-01 23:46
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	+1,373	$1,219	100¢	$1.4K	+$151	10-20 03:56
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+2,046	$894	66¢	$1.4K	+$467	10-24 12:19
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+1,256	$1,006	86¢	$1.1K	+$81	08-31 20:50
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-5,881	-$322	14¢	$-847	-$525	10-19 09:32
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+1,073	$851	79¢	$845	-$6	10-03 09:56
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+808	$777	98¢	$795	+$18	08-28 12:49
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+606	$602	100¢	$605	+$3	09-04 08:42
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+751	$612	78¢	$582	-$31	09-16 11:04
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+8,045	$100	7¢	$579	+$479	10-26 09:13
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	+1,430	$205	40¢	$578	+$373	10-21 20:42
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+595	$523	96¢	$572	+$49	09-13 15:40
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-5,634	-$469	10¢	$-566	-$97	10-20 02:29
Will New York Jets win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	No	+521	$515	100¢	$520	+$5	08-19 17:48
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+552	$528	94¢	$519	-$10	10-18 20:38
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+590	$530	84¢	$498	-$32	10-11 11:18
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	+500	$494	99¢	$497	+$3	08-18 18:40
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+653	$526	74¢	$483	-$43	10-07 11:57
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+11,247	$345	4¢	$467	+$122	10-24 22:18
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+7,166	$539	6¢	$466	-$73	10-21 22:37
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-2,744	-$643	16¢	$-453	+$190	10-25 08:03
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-3,834	-$649	12¢	$-441	+$208	10-21 21:14
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	+445	$432	99¢	$439	+$7	08-05 20:00
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-5,560	-$451	8¢	$-417	+$34	10-21 21:08
Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+416	$413	99¢	$411	-$2	10-18 14:31
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+428	$385	93¢	$397	+$12	08-24 16:13
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-5,916	-$286	6¢	$-370	-$83	10-23 12:59
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+2,094	$398	18¢	$366	-$32	10-27 19:30
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	-5,885	-$464	6¢	$-356	+$108	10-14 12:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
2026 3m open top20 jason day	6	$17.6K	17,708	0	+17,708	No	+$71	07-23 07:33
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	253	$12.2K	12,678	5,050	+7,627	Yes	-$337	05-14 02:07
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	264	$10.4K	10,786	4,881	+5,905	Yes	+$1,075	05-01 17:48
Will David Ford win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?	3	$7.0K	7,020	1,500	+5,520	No	+$9	05-19 16:23
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	207	$7.0K	8,587	12,916	-4,329	No	+$2,058	07-14 22:57
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	182	$6.5K	14,466	18,720	-4,254	No	+$1,570	07-10 08:36
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	60	$6.3K	5,575	4,274	+1,301	Yes	-$37	06-06 14:52
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	152	$6.0K	27,732	27,833	-101	No	+$11	01-24 20:37
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	243	$5.9K	17,892	19,584	-1,693	No	+$857	05-16 22:30
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	105	$5.6K	5,304	11,084	-5,781	Yes	-$6,153	07-10 09:43
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	173	$5.4K	6,230	6,837	-607	No	+$337	05-16 17:47
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	232	$5.3K	15,966	19,270	-3,304	No	+$3,073	05-16 22:36
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	282	$5.2K	26,533	28,238	-1,705	No	-$142	05-16 20:54
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open?	51	$5.0K	7,049	7,239	-190	No	+$293	09-11 11:13
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	243	$4.6K	21,009	20,408	+601	No	+$414	05-16 20:29
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 3M Open?	4	$4.5K	4,333	700	+3,633	No	+$200	07-26 21:49
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	89	$4.2K	8,181	7,639	+542	No	+$190	05-29 13:46
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	56	$4.2K	3,405	2,459	+946	Yes	-$413	06-06 04:13
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?	25	$4.2K	4,719	2,056	+2,663	open	—	10-13 01:24
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	349	$4.0K	8,492	7,995	+497	Yes	+$10	01-25 20:53
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	71	$3.8K	15,650	12,140	+3,510	open	—	10-26 22:54
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	106	$3.8K	4,930	3,480	+1,449	Yes	-$1,206	10-26 22:35
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	171	$3.7K	6,810	5,242	+1,568	No	-$463	04-27 15:47
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	43	$3.5K	16,409	9,243	+7,166	open	—	10-21 22:37
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	163	$3.5K	10,543	4,453	+6,091	No	+$87	05-12 10:14
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	58	$3.4K	1,994	1,924	+70	Yes	+$128	05-01 08:43
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	27	$3.2K	4,147	1,600	+2,546	open	—	10-24 12:19
will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	16	$3.1K	1,578	1,578	-0	Yes	+$63	03-27 14:33
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21	4	$3.1K	2,361	3,861	-1,500	Michigan State Spartans	+$470	03-21 19:54
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open?	22	$3.1K	8,463	4,778	+3,686	No	+$57	09-05 18:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:26:06	Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x9145c3…
10-29 19:15:34	Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	56	10¢	$6	0xb65a8c…
10-29 11:21:53	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x6bbc85…
10-29 10:54:34	Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Yes	SELL	167	1¢	$2	0x246963…
10-29 10:53:50	Will Marseille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x498bb3…
10-29 09:16:46	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	BUY	190	65¢	$123	0xa789cb…
10-29 09:15:34	Will Lazio win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	BUY	292	4¢	$13	0x5cddc5…
10-29 09:12:38	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	44	67¢	$29	0xfbd52a…
10-29 09:02:35	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x9bf021…
10-29 09:01:50	BC Dubai vs. Zadar	BC Dubai	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0x218ddd…
10-29 08:59:53	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x0ad671…
10-29 03:04:52	Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	75	0¢	$0	0x402e40…
10-29 00:13:37	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x5d3895…
10-29 00:11:37	Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xd9591d…
10-29 00:07:44	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xe0484a…
10-29 00:05:11	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	67	65¢	$43	0xe28299…
10-29 00:04:49	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0x8f67cc…
10-29 00:03:50	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	51	87¢	$44	0x4b936e…
10-29 00:03:04	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0xe142eb…
10-28 23:59:41	Will Juventus finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	Yes	BUY	13	28¢	$4	0x42aa29…
10-28 23:53:50	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xbfd42d…
10-28 23:46:49	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x8e9332…
10-28 19:42:20	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x6fcc46…
10-28 19:41:40	Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	126	1¢	$1	0x4fe7e3…
10-28 19:40:43	Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	207	2¢	$4	0xe3bea1…
10-28 19:38:08	Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	SELL	27	10¢	$3	0x150286…
10-28 19:34:50	Will Manchester United finish in the top 5 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	107	23¢	$25	0x8bad13…
10-28 19:32:46	Will Liverpool finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	No	SELL	87	77¢	$67	0x42afb5…
10-28 19:31:43	Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	82	2¢	$2	0x99a310…
10-28 16:48:23	Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x226059…
10-28 16:45:08	Will Germany win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x836e41…
10-28 08:50:07	Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$0	0x03cd57…
10-28 08:30:25	Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	662	1¢	$8	0xc186f1…
10-28 08:19:25	Will Ousmane Dembélé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0xe11d3a…
10-28 00:30:26	Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$3	0x6b07cd…
10-27 22:37:42	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0xfc4a13…
10-27 22:37:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	32	49¢	$16	0xc66432…
10-27 22:36:18	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x45c393…
10-27 22:29:21	Will Luxembourg win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xa14800…
10-27 21:45:47	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xbaae02…
10-27 21:45:47	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x497e75…
10-27 21:42:47	Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	95	98¢	$94	0xe9126c…
10-27 21:42:20	Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	57	92¢	$53	0xdd062b…
10-27 21:41:47	Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	75	93¢	$69	0xc964dd…
10-27 21:37:00	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x445218…
10-27 21:25:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	71	36¢	$26	0x83dd8d…
10-27 21:24:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	68	35¢	$24	0xe0ca95…
10-27 21:24:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x9b158b…
10-27 19:49:26	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	156	85¢	$132	0xaa3e49…
10-27 19:30:29	Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	203	16¢	$32	0x1d1f48…
10-27 19:29:39	Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	191	6¢	$11	0x9a851a…
10-27 18:54:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	73	61¢	$45	0xef1395…
10-27 18:53:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	22	61¢	$13	0x2f2778…
10-27 18:53:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	45	61¢	$28	0xed8a47…
10-27 18:51:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	9	61¢	$6	0x2218e8…
10-27 18:49:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xec5357…
10-27 18:48:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	136	60¢	$82	0x054290…
10-27 18:42:47	Will Vinícius Júnior score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0x438add…
10-27 12:48:23	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	211	85¢	$180	0x20d652…
10-27 09:24:35	Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd1dbd3…
10-27 08:55:38	Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	SELL	27	10¢	$3	0x7b999f…
10-27 08:54:15	Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	196	6¢	$12	0xd65532…
10-27 08:52:20	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x372f4f…
10-27 08:52:11	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$0	0xcf35a1…
10-27 06:14:27	Will Belgium win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x8dbfba…
10-27 06:14:21	Will Belgium win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0xbe5008…
10-27 05:20:12	Will Belgium win the UEFA EURO 2028?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0xee7f63…
10-27 03:23:59	Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	No	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0xb37e4b…
10-26 22:57:35	Will Coventry City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	SELL	15	43¢	$6	0xa30740…
10-26 22:54:41	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	682	4¢	$27	0x502b5f…
10-26 22:54:11	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	182	4¢	$7	0x483133…
10-26 22:42:29	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	59	1¢	$0	0x8ba24f…
10-26 22:35:24	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	116	72¢	$84	0xf549f5…
10-26 20:05:27	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	870	4¢	$34	0xd6248d…
10-26 20:05:02	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	130	4¢	$5	0x3c67aa…
10-26 20:01:20	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x206334…
10-26 20:01:17	Will Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x9c19d1…
10-26 20:00:41	Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0xb74100…
10-26 19:58:00	Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	SELL	64	13¢	$8	0x98c8be…
10-26 19:26:02	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x22a736…
10-26 19:25:44	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	SELL	41	16¢	$7	0x8e8016…
10-26 19:24:23	Will Leeds United finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x170b4c…
10-26 19:24:02	Will Leeds United finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	104	10¢	$11	0x50d641…
10-26 19:23:06	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	14	58¢	$8	0xf60b73…
10-26 19:22:36	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x65b04b…
10-26 19:20:48	Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	410	3¢	$11	0xb2a45c…
10-26 19:15:57	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	604	0¢	$2	0x295a5f…
10-26 10:42:35	Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x4f3d50…
10-26 10:41:39	Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xba27e9…
10-26 09:38:00	Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0x9a18dd…
10-26 09:35:21	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	136	4¢	$5	0x7b32c8…
10-26 09:35:00	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	1,057	4¢	$41	0xc35642…
10-26 09:13:12	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0xd5c05e…
10-26 09:13:05	Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	60	7¢	$4	0x512662…
10-26 09:11:26	Will Alexander Isak (Liverpool) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	31	14¢	$4	0xcacefb…
10-26 09:06:50	Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	495	2¢	$12	0xa26761…
10-26 09:05:39	Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	96	6¢	$6	0x449e3c…
10-26 09:03:54	Will Inter Milan finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Serie A season?	Yes	SELL	17	96¢	$17	0x5fc923…
10-26 08:57:05	Will Club Brugge win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	1,727	0¢	$5	0xe9c33e…
10-26 08:55:32	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	SELL	68	12¢	$8	0x6f57b5…