Focused-Defeat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.99K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.8%

Resolved

5,257

Trades

10,717

lifetime

Volume

$268.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-04

last 08-21 02:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 89 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 94% -$2,974

Other

2% 76% +$3

Tech

0% 0% —

Politics

0% 33% -$19

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 541 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	5	$3.2K	2,714	3,971	-1,257	Yes	+$548	05-22 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	103	$2.3K	5,077	0	+5,077	Down	-$2,343	05-22 21:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	23	$1.1K	822	822	+0	Down	+$396	05-22 20:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 15:30 UTC	23	$988	501	501	+0	Up	+$4	08-20 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	2	$818	1,707	0	+1,707	Up	-$818	05-22 21:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:00 UTC	24	$793	412	412	+0	Up	+$23	08-20 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 00:30 UTC	21	$684	366	366	+0	Down	+$41	08-20 00:34
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	20	$681	587	587	+0	No	-$6	05-18 10:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:55 UTC	23	$676	353	353	+0	Up	+$23	08-20 02:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:15 UTC	18	$672	436	334	+103	Down	-$11	08-20 02:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$651	417	417	+0	No	+$0	05-03 21:02
Chirayu Rana sued?	5	$638	425	425	+0	Yes	$0	05-07 19:11
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026?	3	$585	714	714	+0	Yes	$0	05-06 04:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:30 UTC	16	$553	495	206	+289	Up	-$157	08-20 02:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 01:25 UTC	21	$512	292	292	+0	Down	+$65	08-19 01:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:40 UTC	24	$459	379	379	+0	Down	+$96	08-20 02:43
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	6	$456	600	600	+0	No	-$56	05-20 10:50
dota2 pari mouz 2026 04 10	4	$455	250	250	+0	PARIVISION	+$5	04-10 17:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 11:05 UTC	10	$443	451	0	+451	Down	+$8	08-20 11:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:20 UTC	12	$434	230	230	+0	Down	+$23	08-20 02:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 10:55 UTC	7	$426	477	0	+477	Up	+$4	08-20 10:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$422	400	400	+0	No	-$10	05-24 12:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 00:00 UTC	11	$413	424	0	+424	Up	+$12	08-20 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	5	$404	340	196	+143	Down	-$15	08-21 02:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 08:55 UTC	22	$389	206	206	+0	Up	+$18	08-17 08:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 02:35 UTC	3	$388	299	192	+107	Down	-$7	08-20 02:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	23	$381	409	301	+107	Up	+$108	05-22 09:24
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?	2	$379	271	271	+0	No	+$0	05-23 10:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 10:45 UTC	6	$363	374	0	+374	Up	+$11	08-20 10:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 03:25 UTC	8	$352	387	0	+387	Down	+$35	08-20 03:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 02:22:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	170	26¢	$44	0xd1c892…
08-21 02:22:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x2f5074…
08-21 02:21:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x65b0a4…
08-21 02:21:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe393d4…
08-21 02:21:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:20 UTC	Up	BUY	52	46¢	$24	0x613d2c…
08-21 02:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	196	99¢	$195	0x08d1c3…
08-21 02:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	197	71¢	$140	0xe01ac9…
08-21 02:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	81	50¢	$40	0xbbdbfb…
08-21 02:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x978b9f…
08-21 02:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x719a6f…
08-21 02:13:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xaf360f…
08-21 02:12:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:10 UTC	Up	SELL	129	7¢	$9	0xcb5eeb…
08-21 02:12:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:10 UTC	Up	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x170aa8…
08-21 02:12:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	205	92¢	$188	0x69717b…
08-21 02:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:10 UTC	Up	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x9bd6d1…
08-21 02:08:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xce6874…
08-21 02:08:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xa57fa3…
08-21 02:07:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	41	78¢	$32	0x5fe166…
08-21 02:07:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x9653ea…
08-21 02:07:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xc1f511…
08-21 02:07:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xbf923b…
08-21 02:07:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x1a754b…
08-21 02:07:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x4135b4…
08-21 02:06:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xd32763…
08-21 02:06:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x35a9e0…
08-21 02:06:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xf6c5cd…
08-21 02:05:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xe844e8…
08-21 02:05:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 02:05 UTC	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xca04af…
08-20 21:49:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd083bc…
08-20 21:49:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x87d0d8…
08-20 21:47:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xbc4950…
08-20 21:46:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xb6794e…
08-20 21:31:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x085d9e…
08-20 21:31:30	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbfa921…
08-20 21:25:04	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xcf0f74…
08-20 21:23:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8747b8…
08-20 21:23:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfeef02…
08-20 21:17:46	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x85f54c…
08-20 21:15:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6c5040…
08-20 21:13:13	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9c41be…
08-20 21:13:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x784cab…
08-20 21:12:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x728007…
08-20 21:07:37	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x988c62…
08-20 21:01:13	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xf9edc0…
08-20 20:57:58	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x03ca76…
08-20 20:52:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x602a7e…
08-20 20:52:10	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc8a8c1…
08-20 20:51:57	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x3751ae…
08-20 20:42:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdc6e14…
08-20 20:38:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3f0dbf…
08-20 20:38:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x48eb85…
08-20 20:33:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2cd5f4…
08-20 20:32:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3a219a…
08-20 20:31:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xf6522a…
08-20 20:26:13	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa92a3c…
08-20 20:23:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x868423…
08-20 20:22:09	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xca5234…
08-20 20:13:33	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x887ef5…
08-20 20:12:27	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfe1437…
08-20 20:10:34	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xe66d1f…
08-20 20:08:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 20:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7e726c…
08-20 19:47:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5a52be…
08-20 19:46:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xefad14…
08-20 19:46:39	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa5f919…
08-20 19:43:33	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xae0125…
08-20 19:38:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4e5f5f…
08-20 19:37:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x45a162…
08-20 19:37:36	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x66113f…
08-20 19:27:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x54d78c…
08-20 19:27:34	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3eecb4…
08-20 19:26:15	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x616b13…
08-20 19:23:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbe03e4…
08-20 19:22:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5715b9…
08-20 19:22:28	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x4cad3a…
08-20 19:18:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1c1d6f…
08-20 19:16:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0xbce89a…
08-20 19:10:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5c0e65…
08-20 19:07:10	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x62e24d…
08-20 19:07:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xaedf5f…
08-20 19:03:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x26f7cf…
08-20 19:03:10	Solana Up or Down - August 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4e6bc0…
08-20 19:01:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x16b7ed…
08-20 18:52:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa7047b…
08-20 18:52:18	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5085e6…
08-20 18:49:09	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x161575…
08-20 18:33:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdcba13…
08-20 18:31:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x3d51bf…
08-20 18:31:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x735e96…
08-20 18:28:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x10b904…
08-20 18:27:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb6cbdb…
08-20 18:23:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x68a4eb…
08-20 18:21:51	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xce4ab9…
08-20 18:21:42	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x58f45f…
08-20 18:16:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x06d41c…
08-20 18:10:03	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x111749…
08-20 18:08:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x61a18d…
08-20 18:02:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xd7d7e5…
08-20 18:01:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x61c997…
08-20 18:01:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xbf36f5…
08-20 17:58:46	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8829ac…