Gullible-Spiderling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$65

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

86.0%

Resolved

106

Trades

115

lifetime

Volume

$1.77K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$27

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-06 05:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Crypto

68% 95% +$15

Other

28% 95% -$79

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No		+24	$24	94¢	$23	-$1	05-21 06:44
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No		+4	$6	99¢	$4	-$2	06-12 04:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	2	$86	51	47	+4	open	—	06-12 04:29
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	1	$80	333	0	+333	No	-$80	07-06 06:48
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	2	$60	31	31	+0	No	+$0	01-16 03:26
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?	1	$54	73	0	+73	Down	+$19	05-15 02:52
will xrp reach 4 in february 2026	2	$44	22	22	+0	No	$0	02-09 01:21
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$43	0	45	-45	No	-$2	01-19 01:51
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$39	40	33	+7	No	-$4	02-27 02:58
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$36	20	16	+4	No	+$0	02-27 02:58
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$35	19	17	+3	No	+$0	02-27 02:58
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	10-06 05:36
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	09-07 05:27
will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	$0	02-09 01:22
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	05-21 06:44
will ethereum reach 2400 june 22 28 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-26 05:16
bitcoin above 86k on january 3	1	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	01-03 01:29
will the liberal democratic party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 japanese snap general election	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	02-09 01:25
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-26 05:13
will solana dip to 20 in june 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-26 05:16
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	03-28 00:52
bitcoin above 92k on january 26	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	01-26 04:06
will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-26 05:15
bitcoin above 56k on april 10	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	04-08 02:28
will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-26 05:15
will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	02-03 02:10
will the price of bitcoin be between 98000 100000 on january 19	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	01-19 02:01
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	06-10 05:18
bitcoin above 78k on march 29	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	03-28 00:52
bitcoin above 58k on april 9	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	04-08 02:28
Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	04-08 02:29
will the price of ethereum be between 3200 3300 on january 26	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	01-26 04:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 05:36:51	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0xd9c3e3…
09-07 05:27:27	Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x4b1b6e…
08-19 08:01:54	will ethereum dip to 900 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9cfc28…
08-19 08:01:30	will bitcoin dip to 50k august 17 23 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x27fb68…
08-19 08:01:12	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x169693…
08-02 06:27:45	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4c586d…
08-02 06:27:30	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x883bfa…
08-02 06:27:20	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x74fcc1…
07-16 06:06:44	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x71569a…
07-16 06:06:37	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa84956…
07-16 06:06:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe4e946…
07-06 06:50:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x67247b…
07-06 06:50:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xced79b…
07-06 06:48:49	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	333	24¢	$80	0x32bd0a…
06-26 05:16:46	will solana dip to 20 in june 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x038891…
06-26 05:16:20	will ethereum reach 2400 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x924851…
06-26 05:15:59	will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x532714…
06-26 05:15:43	will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x8fdf87…
06-26 05:13:31	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2862a4…
06-12 04:32:33	bitcoin above 54k on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7508e2…
06-12 04:32:16	bitcoin above 52k on june 13 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3f3dbb…
06-12 04:32:00	bitcoin above 58k on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2ab00b…
06-12 04:29:33	Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	47	85¢	$40	0xacf1b9…
06-10 05:18:52	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xef372a…
06-10 05:18:19	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfda3ed…
06-10 05:17:57	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x17cbe8…
06-10 05:17:40	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x6cd250…
05-26 07:25:46	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x33dba2…
05-26 07:25:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4968f3…
05-26 07:25:04	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf1da23…
05-26 07:24:47	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe19086…
05-21 06:44:18	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xc52c76…
05-21 06:43:46	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd200ec…
05-21 06:43:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xeab52e…
05-21 06:42:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfe4f7e…
05-21 06:42:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe848b2…
05-15 02:53:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe29323…
05-15 02:52:37	Ethereum Up or Down on May 15?	Down	BUY	73	74¢	$54	0x2000e0…
05-01 03:25:50	Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	90¢	$46	0x60f205…
04-13 01:55:43	elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 240plus	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x72ea05…
04-13 01:55:25	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x21c639…
04-13 01:55:19	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 580plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2af914…
04-13 01:55:11	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 480 499	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xea6372…
04-08 02:30:25	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 400 419	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2214bf…
04-08 02:30:01	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x7b3662…
04-08 02:29:41	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7d55f6…
04-08 02:29:11	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x33517c…
04-08 02:28:43	bitcoin above 56k on april 10	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x191cf4…
04-08 02:28:31	bitcoin above 58k on april 9	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x57298c…
04-08 02:28:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd09c11…
04-01 01:29:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 420 439	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x45fa3e…
04-01 01:28:51	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on april 2	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf157f9…
04-01 01:28:45	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on april 1	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb1cbb8…
04-01 01:28:35	bitcoin above 80k on april 2	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x08a449…
04-01 01:28:27	bitcoin above 76k on april 1	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd546bc…
03-28 00:53:19	will bitcoin reach 82k march 23 29	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0d13cb…
03-28 00:52:59	will bitcoin reach 70k on march 27	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x75f15e…
03-28 00:52:45	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x73aeb2…
03-28 00:52:39	bitcoin above 78k on march 29	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6db40f…
03-28 00:52:31	bitcoin above 72k on march 28	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcf9bbd…
03-18 03:26:57	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6336d1…
03-18 03:26:43	bitcoin above 64k on march 19	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8c217e…
03-18 03:26:33	bitcoin above 80k on march 18	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf27104…
03-18 03:26:15	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x37ac1a…
03-18 03:25:59	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 580plus	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf0087e…
03-18 03:24:37	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 440 459	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x48c89f…
03-09 03:16:41	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0f9473…
03-09 03:16:05	will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on march 9	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3fdb3c…
03-09 03:16:05	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x28860a…
03-09 03:15:45	will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7e60e8…
03-09 03:14:49	bitcoin above 60k on march 9	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9e2428…
03-09 03:14:39	ethereum above 1600 on march 9	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0672fb…
03-09 03:13:57	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 580plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x363850…
03-09 03:13:47	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb32108…
03-09 03:13:37	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 165 189	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb5d8d0…
03-09 03:13:29	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x004b10…
02-27 03:00:26	will scream 7 score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xefdf90…
02-27 03:00:14	elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 240plus	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcf1448…
02-27 03:00:02	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 380 399	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd013d3…
02-27 02:59:52	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x16d977…
02-27 02:59:40	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 580plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x258d56…
02-27 02:58:56	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xd6807e…
02-27 02:58:42	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$16	0x161127…
02-27 02:58:32	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	33	53¢	$17	0xefbc37…
02-09 01:26:19	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	40	54¢	$21	0x8ff549…
02-09 01:25:45	will the liberal democratic party win between 295 and 309 seats in the 2026 japanese snap general election	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe823c0…
02-09 01:22:01	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xcb9392…
02-09 01:21:55	will xrp reach 4 in february 2026	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x6ce9c2…
02-03 02:11:36	ethereum above 2800 on february 3	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa30fd4…
02-03 02:11:14	will xrp reach 4 in february 2026	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x0fd746…
02-03 02:11:02	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2749a9…
02-03 02:10:50	will ethereum reach 5000 in february 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xeec5dd…
02-03 02:10:36	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe0968f…
01-27 05:16:37	will google be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 30	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x36754f…
01-27 05:16:21	will meituan have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1ca788…
01-27 05:15:57	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x73fb95…
01-27 05:15:29	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 924	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbb9274…
01-27 05:15:05	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x47828c…
01-26 04:08:00	xrp above 2pt3 on january 26	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x85937d…
01-26 04:07:48	will the price of xrp be between 2pt10 2pt20 on january 26	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x268352…