Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 16?
open
Total volume
$152
$34 in 24h
Trades
41
Unique wallets
30
Liquidity
$905
Latest YES mid
33¢
Latest NO mid
67¢
End date
2026-05-16
First seen
2026-05-14
last 05-15 14:26
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+50.7¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $8
vs crowd: 49% YES on $117)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $15 | $21 | $6 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $42 | $38 | +$4 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $8 | — | +$8 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $9 | $21 | $12 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 8 | $7 | $22 | $14 |
| Below median | 8 | $22 | — | +$22 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $1 | $6 | $4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | $10 | — | +$10 |
| unranked | 2 | — | $11 | $11 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed-Accelerant 0xb501…9a53 | Yes | +53 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 05-15 14:26 |
| Mad-Refuge 0xfa28…c37e | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 05-15 08:09 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +30 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 05-15 02:02 |
| Jubilant-Phrase 0xec86…60e4 | Yes | +29 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-14 17:29 |
| Dental-Effectiveness 0x1831…6c99 | Yes | +25 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-15 04:00 |
| Separate-Swordfish 0x2e99…b482 | Yes | +16 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-15 13:07 |
| Arid-Socialism 0xe481…32a3 | Yes | +12 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 10:34 |
| Athletic-Jumpsuit-Thistle 0x2b11…b2ae | No | +11 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-15 12:17 |
| Flawless-Fool 0x444c…d440 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 05:10 |
| Cool-Motion 0xb449…1a89 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 16:46 |
| Near-Science 0x2706…c6be | No | +8 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 05-14 05:20 |
| Slippery-Cable 0x01f2…c3de | No | +8 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-14 07:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xeae0…a5f5 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 13:46 |
| Competent-Detail 0x15e9…dacd | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-14 21:34 |
| Rapid-Vendor 0x4560…8ce8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 17:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c35…4801 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-14 05:21 |
| Bland-Dynamite 0x496f…fa5d | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 20:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 14:26:15 | Esteemed-Accelerant 0xb501…9a53 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x7c313a… |
| 05-15 13:07:43 | Separate-Swordfish 0x2e99…b482 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 36¢ | $6 | 0xf60c0d… |
| 05-15 12:17:22 | Athletic-Jumpsuit-Thistle 0x2b11…b2ae | No | BUY | 11 | 67¢ | $7 | 0xa51d28… |
| 05-15 11:45:47 | Broken-Consensus 0xc90b…7190 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $1 | 0x834edc… |
| 05-15 11:45:47 | Grave-Dissemination 0xe43f…a889 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xf5d300… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Overdue-Ladle 0xd009…91af | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x74acd5… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xfbc9d0… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Trained-Beanie 0xcb32…79aa | Yes | SELL | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x7018cb… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Troubled-Cloth 0x9009…1621 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xa3c431… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Blond-Nick 0xc0d8…5430 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x612526… |
| 05-15 11:45:45 | Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x3e833d… |
| 05-15 09:01:50 | Esteemed-Accelerant 0xb501…9a53 | Yes | BUY | 47 | 33¢ | $15 | 0x4fcb1d… |
| 05-15 08:09:57 | Mad-Refuge 0xfa28…c37e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 34¢ | $5 | 0xe568bf… |
| 05-15 08:09:46 | Mad-Refuge 0xfa28…c37e | Yes | BUY | 15 | 33¢ | $5 | 0xa0db4e… |
| 05-15 04:00:40 | Dental-Effectiveness 0x1831…6c99 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 32¢ | $8 | 0x72d251… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x439ab9… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Mundane-Panic 0x2f88…a6f0 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x32713e… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Grave-Dissemination 0xe43f…a889 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x33e259… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 30 | 70¢ | $21 | 0x0d259f… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Trained-Beanie 0xcb32…79aa | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xf27fe8… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Blond-Nick 0xc0d8…5430 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xfc4819… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Dimpled-Technologist 0x16d4…a868 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 29¢ | $5 | 0xe2112d… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xae34b6… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Slow-Witchhunt 0xa5cb…6882 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xd56e6b… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Broken-Consensus 0xc90b…7190 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x959d1a… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Visible-Parenting 0x19af…6e63 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x5861a8… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Overdue-Ladle 0xd009…91af | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x91962e… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Troubled-Cloth 0x9009…1621 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x0df743… |
| 05-15 02:02:58 | Testy-Sculpture 0x20d8…463e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x9909e1… |
| 05-14 21:34:52 | Competent-Detail 0x15e9…dacd | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xb41cbf… |
| 05-14 20:12:32 | Bland-Dynamite 0x496f…fa5d | Yes | BUY | 4 | 27¢ | $1 | 0xc2961e… |
| 05-14 17:29:37 | Jubilant-Phrase 0xec86…60e4 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 26¢ | $7 | 0xdd87df… |
| 05-14 17:19:21 | Rapid-Vendor 0x4560…8ce8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x1e7dda… |
| 05-14 16:46:35 | Cool-Motion 0xb449…1a89 | No | BUY | 10 | 80¢ | $8 | 0xca292f… |
| 05-14 13:46:05 | (anonymous) 0xeae0…a5f5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x1a8f7f… |
| 05-14 10:34:22 | Arid-Socialism 0xe481…32a3 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 26¢ | $3 | 0x58f002… |
| 05-14 07:19:02 | Slippery-Cable 0x01f2…c3de | No | BUY | 8 | 72¢ | $6 | 0xc8ae4d… |
| 05-14 05:21:03 | (anonymous) 0x5c35…4801 | No | BUY | 5 | 70¢ | $4 | 0x585be0… |
| 05-14 05:20:37 | Near-Science 0x2706…c6be | No | BUY | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xd8ee6e… |
| 05-14 05:10:23 | Flawless-Fool 0x444c…d440 | No | BUY | 10 | 77¢ | $8 | 0x3c3ceb… |
| 05-14 05:10:14 | Near-Science 0x2706…c6be | No | BUY | 4 | 76¢ | $3 | 0x3ed58a… |