French-Recession — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.8%

Resolved

Trades

459

lifetime

Volume

$2.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-15 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

47% 0% $-14

Politics

46% 57% $-9

Crypto

7% 100% +$1

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	8	$137	86	86	+0	open	—	04-20 11:58
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 25 in february	4	$114	69	69	+0	open	—	02-18 17:17
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	5	$111	58	58	+0	open	—	03-18 21:37
will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	4	$89	52	39	+13	open	—	01-28 19:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$87	198	198	+0	open	—	03-24 20:44
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	5	$83	45	45	+0	open	—	02-17 22:16
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by february 14 2026	5	$77	47	47	+0	open	—	01-30 12:06
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	4	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	02-12 03:26
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	4	$59	30	30	+0	open	—	02-11 03:11
will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	2	$51	25	25	+0	open	—	01-23 04:53
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	3	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	02-03 19:15
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	7	$49	38	38	+0	open	—	03-17 21:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$45	294	294	+0	Yes	$-7	05-08 18:15
will the us next strike iran on january 21 2026 et 774	2	$43	21	21	+0	open	—	01-21 20:49
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	3	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	01-20 23:50
will the us next strike iran on january 19 2026 et 726	2	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	01-20 05:55
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	3	$42	24	24	+0	open	—	03-25 18:56
will powell say inflation 40 times during march press conference	2	$41	22	22	+0	open	—	03-18 18:58
will there be at least 600 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	02-01 05:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$40	182	182	+0	Yes	+$0	05-04 20:19
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	02-12 18:45
will iran strike jordan in march	5	$39	25	25	+0	open	—	03-06 23:33
will the us next strike iran on january 18 2026 et 229	2	$38	19	19	+0	open	—	01-19 12:03
btc updown 5m 1771550400	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	02-20 01:22
will the us next strike iran on january 17 2026 et 219	2	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	01-18 11:45
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	3	$34	24	24	+0	open	—	03-20 18:33
will the us next strike iran on january 16 2026 et 766	2	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	01-17 11:35
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$26	26	26	+0	open	—	03-29 11:00
will trump post potus this week on truth social	2	$25	40	0	+40	open	—	04-20 11:51
2026 us senate election republican odds under 50 by march 31	3	$23	19	19	+0	open	—	03-14 00:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 17:01:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x3ff5ad…
05-14 16:10:57	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	8¢	$4	0x105ae6…
05-14 12:01:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x91e028…
05-14 12:01:06	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x5308bf…
05-11 18:46:53	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0xd1a587…
05-08 18:15:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x90f1d7…
05-08 18:09:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc38274…
05-08 11:53:52	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1db5c7…
05-08 06:15:13	Will Trump say "Kamala" this week?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x15d875…
05-08 06:07:03	Will Trump say "Wall Street" this week?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x6cceed…
05-08 05:27:27	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x2b1a7d…
05-08 04:57:01	Will Trump post "Ceasefire" or "Cease-fire" or "Cease fire" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x833c76…
05-08 04:35:18	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x8c8171…
05-08 03:52:32	Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x41eb56…
05-08 03:32:16	Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x6f59ab…
05-08 03:12:21	Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x74eaeb…
05-08 02:14:02	Will Trump post "FBI" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3219c8…
05-08 02:13:29	Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xfb20f8…
05-08 02:09:52	Will Trump say "Autopen" this week?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xaf6f1d…
05-07 19:09:15	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x39ff17…
05-06 08:26:14	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x18cb0b…
05-06 01:42:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x795338…
05-05 10:25:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	5¢	$15	0xe58ba6…
05-05 01:54:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x1fcdbd…
05-05 00:28:26	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	43	24¢	$10	0xdc2f6a…
05-04 20:19:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	11¢	$14	0xee7fcd…
05-04 19:59:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	11¢	$6	0xbc5a79…
05-04 18:53:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	274	7¢	$20	0x0dcf9e…
05-04 18:51:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x0fdb5c…
05-04 18:50:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x68dcdc…
05-04 17:33:26	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x3ea56b…
05-03 20:41:28	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Oil" this week?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8c233f…
05-03 20:18:46	Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9a066c…
05-03 20:18:04	Will Bernie Sanders say "Tuition" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdbccc8…
05-03 20:17:50	Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd76c10…
05-03 20:15:12	Will Trump post "Ammo" or "Ammunition" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x424252…
05-03 20:14:42	Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xede82f…
05-03 20:14:32	Will Trump post "TrumpRX" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x0230e8…
05-03 20:14:18	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x72bc3a…
05-03 18:28:56	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xc876ae…
05-03 16:47:16	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0xa60f48…
05-02 09:34:52	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6990da…
05-02 04:05:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x43b4b8…
05-02 04:05:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6a6f63…
05-02 03:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x91b97c…
05-02 00:36:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0xf59e80…
05-01 21:33:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xdcc8b1…
05-01 21:29:38	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x71d8fc…
05-01 21:15:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x025426…
05-01 21:15:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xcd33db…
05-01 21:00:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x06d72c…
05-01 13:36:12	Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x07c23e…
05-01 02:16:14	Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xdbed3c…
04-30 13:15:18	Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x591cbc…
04-30 13:15:16	Will Trump post "Blockade" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x1188e9…
04-30 13:15:12	Will Trump post "Hoax" or "Scam" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x08e273…
04-30 13:15:08	Will Trump post "Landslide" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x87163a…
04-30 13:14:34	Will Trump post "POTUS" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x5fd6d5…
04-29 19:15:26	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x880818…
04-29 19:15:18	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe463bf…
04-29 19:15:14	Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbe4f91…
04-29 19:15:06	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe0f439…
04-29 19:13:40	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x251339…
04-29 19:13:06	Will Powell say "Luck" during April press conference?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x0ff681…
04-29 19:13:00	Will Powell say "War" during April press conference?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x982612…
04-29 19:12:30	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xd7a1b8…
04-29 19:12:26	Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x9fc02f…
04-29 19:12:16	Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x303b67…
04-29 19:12:10	Will Powell say "Goods inflation" during April press conference?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x7a1666…
04-29 19:11:28	Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xeda314…
04-29 18:04:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	No	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0xa410b4…
04-29 17:51:22	Will Keir Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf9fa4e…
04-27 19:46:12	Will Keir Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xa8cf10…
04-26 23:14:56	Will Trump name "Machado" in April?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x7ebf39…
04-26 23:14:22	Will Trump name "Delcy" in April?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xeb316c…
04-26 15:24:20	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x63f270…
04-26 15:13:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xfa45c0…
04-26 10:55:18	Will Trump post "Third Rate" or "Third-Rate" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x6fcd2c…
04-26 01:55:12	Will Trump post "AG" or "Attorney General" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xc68acc…
04-25 17:24:22	Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.25% (LOW) in April?	Yes	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0x19e4fb…
04-25 13:48:58	Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x11545c…
04-25 13:48:28	Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xbdff9c…
04-25 13:32:34	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xd67051…
04-25 13:32:00	Will Trump name "Elon" or "Musk" in April?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x81d66c…
04-25 13:31:48	Will Trump name "Leavitt" in April?	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x440e59…
04-23 20:21:02	Will Trump name "Homan" in April?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x57b325…
04-23 11:45:14	Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xec568c…
04-23 11:44:58	Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xc782b0…
04-23 11:43:52	Will Trump name "Massie" in April?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x8a4123…
04-23 11:43:26	Will Trump name "Hillary" in April?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x02e29a…
04-23 11:43:08	Will Trump name "Rand Paul" in April?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x0369ac…
04-23 11:43:04	Will Trump name "Friedrich" or "Merz" in April?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x1e1973…
04-23 11:42:46	Will Trump name "Paxton" in April?	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xe3eb09…
04-23 11:42:32	Will Trump name "Massie" in April?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xee3c7e…
04-22 18:27:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1cfbf5…
04-21 20:03:30	Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x16a4cf…
04-21 20:01:16	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xad0332…
04-21 14:29:48	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x528d23…
04-21 14:08:20	will donald trump publicly insult someone on april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xec5ed5…
04-20 11:58:54	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0xb24f6a…