French-Recession — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$53

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.4%

Resolved

293

Trades

514

lifetime

Volume

$2.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-15 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Other

51% 49% +$11

Politics

43% 73% +$44

Crypto

6% 68% $0

Tech

0% 50% -$1

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-15).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meeting?	5	$163	83	83	+0	Yes	+$3	04-30 18:34
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	8	$137	86	86	+0	Yes	+$2	04-20 11:58
odds of khamenei being out as supreme leader by march 31 over 25 in february	4	$114	69	69	+0	Yes	+$24	02-18 17:17
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	5	$111	58	58	+0	Yes	+$4	03-18 21:37
will powell say good afternoon during january press conference 696 565	4	$89	52	39	+13	Yes	+$0	01-28 19:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$87	198	198	+0	No	-$3	03-24 20:44
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	5	$83	45	45	+0	Yes	+$7	02-17 22:16
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by february 14 2026	5	$77	47	47	+0	Yes	-$1	01-30 12:06
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	02-12 03:26
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	4	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	02-11 03:11
will the us next strike iran on january 22 2026 et 837	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	01-23 04:53
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	3	$50	26	26	+0	No	+$0	02-03 19:15
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	7	$49	38	38	+0	Yes	+$10	03-17 21:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$45	294	294	+0	Yes	-$7	05-08 18:15
will the us next strike iran on january 21 2026 et 774	2	$43	21	21	+0	No	+$0	01-21 20:49
will the us next strike iran on january 20 2026 et 992	3	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	01-20 23:50
will the us next strike iran on january 19 2026 et 726	2	$42	21	21	+0	No	+$0	01-20 05:55
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	3	$42	24	24	+0	Yes	+$5	03-25 18:56
will powell say inflation 40 times during march press conference	2	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	03-18 18:58
will there be at least 600 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	02-01 05:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$40	182	182	+0	Yes	+$0	05-04 20:19
us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	02-12 18:45
will iran strike jordan in march	5	$39	25	25	+0	Yes	+$3	03-06 23:33
will the us next strike iran on january 18 2026 et 229	2	$38	19	19	+0	No	+$0	01-19 12:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 01:20 UTC	2	$34	20	20	+0	Down	+$1	02-20 01:22
will the us next strike iran on january 17 2026 et 219	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	01-18 11:45
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt4 by march 31	3	$34	24	24	+0	Yes	-$1	03-20 18:33
will the us next strike iran on january 16 2026 et 766	2	$34	17	17	+0	No	+$0	01-17 11:35
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	4	$27	30	30	+0	No	+$3	05-06 12:42
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$26	26	26	+0	Yes	+$2	03-29 11:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 17:01:31	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x56915a…
05-15 17:01:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	51	3¢	$2	0xb7e3b3…
05-15 17:01:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x3ff5ad…
05-14 16:10:57	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	8¢	$4	0x105ae6…
05-14 12:01:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x91e028…
05-14 12:01:06	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x5308bf…
05-14 02:37:07	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x4ef350…
05-14 02:34:08	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	495	1¢	$3	0x48b86b…
05-13 20:51:34	Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x94bbcf…
05-13 20:44:03	Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x573b82…
05-13 20:39:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	1¢	$0	0xdd48f9…
05-13 20:39:40	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x779080…
05-12 18:04:29	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	255	1¢	$2	0x85f75e…
05-12 12:19:41	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x2b3285…
05-11 18:46:53	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0xd1a587…
05-11 18:46:46	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x1065bc…
05-11 17:24:15	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x80359e…
05-09 11:22:12	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	29	43¢	$12	0x42fa6d…
05-08 18:15:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x90f1d7…
05-08 18:09:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc38274…
05-08 11:53:52	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1db5c7…
05-08 06:15:13	Will Trump say "Kamala" this week?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x15d875…
05-08 06:07:03	Will Trump say "Wall Street" this week?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x6cceed…
05-08 05:27:27	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x2b1a7d…
05-08 04:57:01	Will Trump post "Ceasefire" or "Cease-fire" or "Cease fire" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x833c76…
05-08 04:35:18	Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" this week?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x8c8171…
05-08 03:52:32	Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x41eb56…
05-08 03:32:16	Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0x6f59ab…
05-08 03:12:21	Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x74eaeb…
05-08 02:14:02	Will Trump post "FBI" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3219c8…
05-08 02:13:29	Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xfb20f8…
05-08 02:09:52	Will Trump say "Autopen" this week?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xaf6f1d…
05-07 19:09:15	Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x39ff17…
05-07 00:35:05	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb046d5…
05-06 22:06:03	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x47c0ee…
05-06 22:05:58	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xfb963e…
05-06 22:05:28	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x316922…
05-06 22:05:26	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf769da…
05-06 22:05:17	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb3be56…
05-06 22:05:07	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xa00b33…
05-06 22:04:37	Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xd8a438…
05-06 22:04:37	Will the US add between 200k and 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x000665…
05-06 12:42:48	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	30	50¢	$15	0x2ddd67…
05-06 11:32:02	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xbb0390…
05-06 11:31:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x83fb34…
05-06 11:29:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0x77a87f…
05-06 11:28:58	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xcfcb9a…
05-06 08:26:14	Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x18cb0b…
05-06 02:36:52	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x9a12f3…
05-06 02:36:50	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x59639d…
05-06 02:36:50	Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x2842af…
05-06 01:42:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x795338…
05-05 10:25:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	5¢	$15	0xe58ba6…
05-05 01:54:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x1fcdbd…
05-05 00:28:26	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	43	24¢	$10	0xdc2f6a…
05-04 20:19:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	11¢	$14	0xee7fcd…
05-04 19:59:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	11¢	$6	0xbc5a79…
05-04 18:53:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	274	7¢	$20	0x0dcf9e…
05-04 18:51:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x0fdb5c…
05-04 18:50:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x68dcdc…
05-04 17:33:26	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x3ea56b…
05-03 20:41:28	Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Oil" this week?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8c233f…
05-03 20:40:44	Will the US add at least 250k jobs in April?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xab3057…
05-03 20:18:46	Will Bernie Sanders say "Authoritarian" or "Authoritarianism" in Michigan?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9a066c…
05-03 20:18:04	Will Bernie Sanders say "Tuition" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdbccc8…
05-03 20:17:50	Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd76c10…
05-03 20:15:12	Will Trump post "Ammo" or "Ammunition" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x424252…
05-03 20:14:42	Will Trump post "Third rate" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xede82f…
05-03 20:14:32	Will Trump post "TrumpRX" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x0230e8…
05-03 20:14:18	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x72bc3a…
05-03 18:28:56	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xc876ae…
05-03 18:27:58	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x79c87e…
05-03 16:47:16	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0xa60f48…
05-03 15:49:38	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Yes	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0xb3bdff…
05-03 15:44:22	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xd2ab5b…
05-02 12:48:12	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May?	Yes	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0x20c2c2…
05-02 10:30:12	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May?	Yes	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0xc78da0…
05-02 09:34:52	Will Trump post "Hell" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6990da…
05-02 04:05:30	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x43b4b8…
05-02 04:05:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6a6f63…
05-02 03:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x91b97c…
05-02 00:47:42	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	820	0¢	$3	0x23fb30…
05-02 00:36:16	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026?	No	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0xf59e80…
05-01 21:33:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xdcc8b1…
05-01 21:29:38	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x71d8fc…
05-01 21:16:48	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x8dc7bc…
05-01 21:16:28	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x8e6fd2…
05-01 21:15:46	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x025426…
05-01 21:15:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xcd33db…
05-01 21:00:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x06d72c…
05-01 18:24:18	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x584881…
05-01 18:14:10	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$1	0xde6ecb…
05-01 17:48:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x3cc73c…
05-01 17:22:20	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0x3539c2…
05-01 15:57:22	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x06c7ed…
05-01 14:46:04	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf2be08…
05-01 13:51:40	Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x7764d6…
05-01 13:44:36	No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	49¢	$8	0x1e5df4…
05-01 13:36:12	Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x07c23e…
05-01 02:16:14	Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xdbed3c…