Trifling-Motive — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

91.7%

Resolved

Trades

369

lifetime

Volume

$3.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-22 03:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 71% +$11

Politics

29% 100% +$47

Other

13% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 95 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No		-2	$-1	70¢	$-1	+$0	06-22 03:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	5	$386	286	286	+0	open	—	05-07 03:27
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$289	177	177	+0	No	+$45	05-06 08:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$287	263	263	+0	open	—	05-07 23:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	5	$160	250	244	+6	open	—	04-28 10:41
btc updown 5m 1776772500	2	$110	118	0	+118	open	—	04-21 11:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	4	$69	57	55	+2	open	—	04-27 02:26
btc updown 5m 1776432000	4	$63	78	0	+78	open	—	04-17 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	5	$56	33	33	+0	Up	+$6	05-08 04:13
btc updown 5m 1776955800	6	$50	61	0	+61	open	—	04-23 14:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$50	32	32	+0	open	—	04-28 05:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	3	$41	23	23	+0	Up	+$1	05-08 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$40	41	0	+41	Down	+$1	05-06 10:09
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	3	$36	149	143	+7	open	—	04-25 04:18
btc updown 5m 1776764700	4	$34	23	22	+1	open	—	04-21 09:49
btc updown 5m 1776348000	6	$34	43	7	+36	open	—	04-16 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	3	$34	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	05-08 11:19
btc updown 5m 1776432600	5	$33	36	0	+36	open	—	04-17 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$32	19	19	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 09:19
btc updown 5m 1776948300	3	$32	38	0	+38	open	—	04-23 12:48
btc updown 5m 1776951900	6	$32	56	0	+56	open	—	04-23 13:49
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	3	$32	244	233	+11	open	—	04-26 13:29
btc updown 5m 1776331500	2	$32	38	37	+2	open	—	04-16 09:27
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?	3	$30	22	22	+0	open	—	04-25 04:21
btc updown 5m 1776432300	3	$30	38	0	+38	open	—	04-17 13:27
btc updown 5m 1776346200	3	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	04-16 13:32
btc updown 5m 1776346800	5	$28	33	0	+33	open	—	04-16 13:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$27	19	19	+0	Up	+$7	05-07 23:43
btc updown 5m 1776434400	6	$27	51	0	+51	open	—	04-17 14:04
btc updown 5m 1776435600	5	$27	31	0	+31	open	—	04-17 14:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$27	18	18	+0	open	—	04-28 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 03:57:02	5kt meteor strike in 2026?	No	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xaebfa0…
05-22 06:16:15	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	32	24¢	$8	0xffbacf…
05-08 13:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5979c6…
05-08 12:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0xfa906f…
05-08 12:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xbce4e7…
05-08 12:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x6b5d2a…
05-08 12:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x7b03e1…
05-08 12:04:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb4db4f…
05-08 11:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0xb0c6fd…
05-08 11:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xd59d7b…
05-08 11:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x5b4f66…
05-08 11:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x30ecf2…
05-08 11:19:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x952ddb…
05-08 11:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x671dd6…
05-08 11:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x41f24a…
05-08 11:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x65f7a2…
05-08 09:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	23	93¢	$21	0xd2317a…
05-08 09:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x409500…
05-08 09:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xdfbbfa…
05-08 09:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	19	92¢	$17	0x1911f4…
05-08 09:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf54143…
05-08 09:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x81fc05…
05-08 09:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xaeb693…
05-08 09:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x762ffc…
05-08 04:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0xb4b430…
05-08 04:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xd2654e…
05-08 04:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xf28aff…
05-08 04:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x1e52d4…
05-08 04:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x4f242c…
05-08 04:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xff64f1…
05-08 03:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0x61ea4f…
05-08 03:41:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xfd5cd8…
05-08 02:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x6fb393…
05-08 02:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xb4b4c5…
05-08 02:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbf9854…
05-08 00:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x1c8d02…
05-08 00:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0x6ad209…
05-08 00:16:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xbefd67…
05-07 23:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x1f317f…
05-07 23:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x375dc3…
05-07 23:31:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	263	52¢	$137	0xd3d095…
05-07 03:27:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	286	76¢	$219	0x3526a7…
05-06 14:31:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xd24907…
05-06 10:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x770c56…
05-06 10:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x4215c1…
05-06 10:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x454f34…
05-06 10:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x5c6997…
05-06 09:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x1e0756…
05-06 08:41:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	SELL	177	94¢	$167	0xcee548…
05-04 15:47:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0xcac03a…
05-04 15:36:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xb87191…
05-02 18:37:38	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd83cf2…
05-02 07:28:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x53913c…
05-02 02:03:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x608cbe…
05-01 15:02:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x70f2bf…
05-01 14:57:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x320b0c…
05-01 14:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x00a9a4…
05-01 14:42:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x041936…
04-30 13:43:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	263	57¢	$150	0x86f670…
04-28 10:41:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	244	15¢	$37	0xe37b91…
04-28 05:36:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	81	58¢	$47	0x84c101…
04-28 05:19:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0xcc92da…
04-28 05:16:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x604236…
04-27 16:03:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x6b5d78…
04-27 15:54:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	18	39¢	$7	0x5c6fd2…
04-27 02:28:54	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	50¢	$43	0x0a99fe…
04-27 02:26:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	78¢	$43	0x9d7be7…
04-27 02:23:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	49¢	$44	0x021602…
04-27 02:22:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x566ddc…
04-26 13:30:10	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0xbfdd38…
04-26 13:29:38	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	233	5¢	$12	0x637465…
04-25 04:21:38	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?	No	SELL	22	69¢	$15	0xd7d5f2…
04-25 04:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	No	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0xdbd901…
04-25 04:20:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	15¢	$9	0xcbb1a0…
04-25 04:18:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	13¢	$18	0x912cea…
04-24 23:00:30	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0xf751dd…
04-24 16:59:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0x15a506…
04-24 16:41:36	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	13¢	$8	0xe52c3d…
04-24 16:36:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0xc0174a…
04-24 16:35:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0x01be2c…
04-24 14:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x82a561…
04-24 14:20:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x0b3103…
04-24 14:15:02	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	9¢	$10	0x7e27b4…
04-24 07:41:24	btc updown 5m 1777016400	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xfed568…
04-24 07:39:32	btc updown 5m 1777016100	Down	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x01e9ff…
04-24 07:38:56	btc updown 5m 1777016100	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x63b665…
04-24 07:38:46	btc updown 5m 1777016100	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x5484cc…
04-24 07:34:44	btc updown 5m 1777015800	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb57bf7…
04-24 07:34:26	btc updown 5m 1777015800	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xe63303…
04-24 07:19:08	btc updown 5m 1777014900	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xa29e40…
04-24 07:17:54	btc updown 5m 1777014900	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4d0494…
04-24 07:17:36	btc updown 5m 1777014900	Up	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0x5ccd99…
04-24 07:16:48	btc updown 5m 1777014900	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe496f0…
04-24 06:58:46	btc updown 5m 1777013700	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2a2b51…
04-24 06:58:14	btc updown 5m 1777013700	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x7d13c2…
04-24 06:49:42	btc updown 5m 1777013100	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xb7fd43…
04-24 06:43:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x4e9ae7…
04-24 06:41:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xc80885…
04-24 06:36:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	8¢	$10	0x9d6e06…
04-24 06:35:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x5e0370…