Realized P&L
-$15.3K
Unrealized P&L
-$10.3K
Hit rate
69.7%
Resolved
158
Trades
4,681
lifetime
Volume
$1.10M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$235
Open exposure
$1.77K
4 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 07-07 17:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Politics
86%
72%
-$9,423
Other
13%
46%
-$5,909
Sports
1%
55%
+$48
Crypto
0%
33%
-$2
Tech
0%
100%
+$4
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-07).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +15,000 | $12,045 | 12¢ | $1.7K | -$10,320 | 06-28 20:23 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | No | -51 | -$46 | 75¢ | $-38 | +$8 | 05-09 01:17 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | +200 | $14 | 2¢ | $3 | -$11 | 05-11 01:58 | |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | -0 | $0 | 98¢ | $-0 | +$0 | 05-08 10:26 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 275 | $172.8K | 108,705 | 112,876 | -4,171 | No | +$213 | 05-31 17:51 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | 336 | $93.5K | 52,305 | 54,695 | -2,390 | No | +$852 | 05-31 18:01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 200 | $72.3K | 82,943 | 62,943 | +20,000 | No | -$5,205 | 06-30 22:35 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 73 | $70.6K | 38,688 | 39,787 | -1,100 | No | +$2,247 | 05-26 16:13 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 200 | $52.2K | 29,234 | 29,493 | -259 | No | +$242 | 05-10 20:14 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482 | 144 | $52.0K | 28,844 | 28,844 | +0 | No | +$282 | 06-14 05:52 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889 | 96 | $49.6K | 32,500 | 32,500 | +0 | Yes | -$1,202 | 06-12 23:32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 69 | $38.9K | 31,300 | 16,301 | +15,000 | open | — | 06-28 20:23 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 132 | $34.7K | 27,953 | 27,312 | +641 | Yes | -$1,536 | 06-07 00:18 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 121 | $34.1K | 25,166 | 25,166 | +0 | No | +$1,555 | 05-30 15:03 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337 | 99 | $29.3K | 40,481 | 20,481 | +20,000 | Yes | -$4,129 | 06-13 00:05 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 175 | $27.4K | 18,571 | 21,585 | -3,014 | Yes | -$18 | 06-12 01:26 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 85 | $20.7K | 14,450 | 14,450 | +0 | Yes | -$68 | 06-08 14:02 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | 142 | $18.8K | 10,410 | 10,636 | -226 | No | +$205 | 04-26 00:59 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 149 | $18.2K | 21,879 | 21,679 | +200 | Yes | -$2,139 | 06-13 02:42 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9 | 21 | $16.6K | 8,689 | 8,689 | +0 | No | +$245 | 06-09 13:09 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 31 | 102 | $15.7K | 9,756 | 9,776 | -20 | No | +$767 | 03-31 13:41 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216 | 39 | $14.0K | 6,914 | 10,014 | -3,100 | No | +$215 | 06-06 00:12 |
| us iran nuclear deal by march 31 | 101 | $12.4K | 6,676 | 6,876 | -200 | No | +$188 | 03-29 14:50 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 20 | $10.0K | 5,300 | 5,300 | +0 | No | +$171 | 05-01 05:58 |
| us strikes iran by february 24 2026 | 100 | $9.2K | 4,806 | 4,740 | +66 | No | +$41 | 02-25 02:26 |
| deepseek v4 released by march 15 678 | 106 | $8.4K | 6,294 | 6,294 | +0 | No | +$653 | 03-14 03:05 |
| us x iran ceasefire by march 15 | 194 | $7.9K | 4,337 | 4,443 | -106 | No | +$94 | 03-13 02:24 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31 | 31 | $7.8K | 11,536 | 11,536 | +0 | Yes | -$1,204 | 06-12 00:12 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 89 | $7.7K | 6,367 | 6,116 | +251 | Yes | -$339 | 04-03 23:55 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | 46 | $7.5K | 6,989 | 6,989 | +0 | Yes | +$1,043 | 06-11 12:22 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 14 | $7.5K | 3,316 | 4,727 | -1,411 | Yes | +$1,641 | 04-05 15:27 |
| us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563 | 48 | $7.4K | 3,785 | 3,782 | +3 | No | +$43 | 02-24 05:00 |
| trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026 | 21 | $7.2K | 3,707 | 3,707 | +0 | No | +$172 | 04-15 23:12 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 38 | $7.0K | 4,702 | 4,057 | +645 | Yes | -$728 | 04-05 23:59 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||