Fatal-Absence — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$3

Unrealized P&L

+$514

Hit rate

90.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

452

452 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$732

$732 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$528

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 23:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 95% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 343 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	+628	$7	84¢	$524	+$517	05-05 23:10
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	+6	$6	36¢	$2	$-3	05-05 22:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-05 22:49
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	-0	$-0	64¢	$-0	$-0	05-05 22:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	1	$100	164	0	+164	open	—	05-05 06:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	3	$69	8	64	-56	open	—	05-05 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	9	$17	18	0	+18	Down	+$1	05-04 22:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	8	$16	16	0	+16	Down	+$0	05-04 23:44
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	5	$11	12	0	+12	Down	$-11	05-04 21:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$11	12	0	+12	Up	+$1	05-04 21:39
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	4	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	05-05 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$10	10	0	+10	Up	+$0	05-04 23:49
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	6	$9	111	0	+111	Up	$-9	05-05 00:45
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	3	$9	9	0	+9	Up	+$0	05-04 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	8	$9	9	0	+9	Down	+$0	05-04 22:29
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	7	$8	468	2	+466	open	—	05-05 22:25
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	6	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	05-05 20:55
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	4	$8	8	0	+8	Down	+$1	05-04 22:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	7	$7	628	0	+628	open	—	05-05 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	7	$7	8	0	+8	Down	+$0	05-04 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	6	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	05-05 00:39
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	3	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	05-04 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	6	$6	16	0	+16	Up	+$10	05-05 00:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	6	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	05-04 21:59
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$6	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	05-05 00:19
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	6	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	05-05 22:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	5	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-05 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	5	$5	6	0	+6	Up	+$0	05-04 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	5	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-05 05:10
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	5	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-05 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	5	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-04 22:14
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	2	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	05-04 21:39
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	2	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-05 00:29
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	5	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-05 16:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 23:10:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbdfa3a…
05-05 23:10:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x89a54f…
05-05 23:10:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0xce4119…
05-05 23:10:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x8c57e4…
05-05 23:10:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x91c367…
05-05 23:10:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	102	1¢	$1	0xd6bcf9…
05-05 23:10:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc2e78d…
05-05 22:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x48b867…
05-05 22:40:00	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x30a57e…
05-05 22:39:58	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x66dd9a…
05-05 22:39:54	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0b8b86…
05-05 22:39:52	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xac63b4…
05-05 22:39:50	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8c1b20…
05-05 22:39:48	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9f4833…
05-05 22:30:14	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x0e704c…
05-05 22:30:14	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9d934b…
05-05 22:30:12	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x7ff6b7…
05-05 22:30:12	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3af949…
05-05 22:25:12	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x60b14a…
05-05 22:25:10	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x9ece25…
05-05 22:25:08	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x8d5396…
05-05 22:25:06	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x97cab8…
05-05 22:25:04	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x484a84…
05-05 22:25:02	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xa7e597…
05-05 22:25:00	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x339263…
05-05 22:19:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x08803d…
05-05 22:15:02	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	44¢	$0	0xde7d2f…
05-05 22:14:58	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf93d73…
05-05 22:14:56	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x4d7eca…
05-05 22:00:02	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x1f86c1…
05-05 22:00:00	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x57cd55…
05-05 22:00:00	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x55e339…
05-05 21:59:58	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x4beb4d…
05-05 21:59:58	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x3c2f42…
05-05 21:59:58	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x7eba82…
05-05 21:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2f917c…
05-05 21:59:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4b80ab…
05-05 21:59:46	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe364ab…
05-05 21:59:44	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1ecde8…
05-05 21:59:42	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0bc410…
05-05 21:59:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x447782…
05-05 21:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdb5a05…
05-05 21:54:48	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd22fa1…
05-05 21:54:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xba491f…
05-05 21:54:40	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x141195…
05-05 21:54:38	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8b75d3…
05-05 21:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x040507…
05-05 21:45:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xecc37a…
05-05 21:30:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb13e51…
05-05 21:04:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x24e384…
05-05 21:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x64640a…
05-05 20:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2c0df5…
05-05 20:59:54	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8ab5ae…
05-05 20:59:52	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe8a269…
05-05 20:59:50	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeaec6a…
05-05 20:55:02	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x8fba0d…
05-05 20:55:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$1	0x327acc…
05-05 20:54:58	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb0ff0d…
05-05 20:54:56	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x874390…
05-05 20:54:54	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x60f8d0…
05-05 20:54:52	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x3423ee…
05-05 20:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0f7425…
05-05 20:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x899550…
05-05 20:24:44	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x1b33af…
05-05 20:24:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xac4543…
05-05 20:19:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	71¢	$1	0x99ba07…
05-05 20:19:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xcc1954…
05-05 20:19:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xbeacc3…
05-05 20:19:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x72f13c…
05-05 20:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd17e67…
05-05 20:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc1b97…
05-05 20:14:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$1	0x5b5f67…
05-05 20:14:40	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x340af8…
05-05 20:14:38	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$1	0x042687…
05-05 20:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x057401…
05-05 19:54:50	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x17873c…
05-05 19:54:48	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xadaa72…
05-05 19:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb43e93…
05-05 19:54:44	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d3372…
05-05 19:54:40	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa4e402…
05-05 19:54:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x1a8343…
05-05 19:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd52296…
05-05 19:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x485b9b…
05-05 19:24:56	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x032881…
05-05 19:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xe5fb25…
05-05 19:24:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xcae1a6…
05-05 19:24:50	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x9b67b0…
05-05 19:24:48	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9823b0…
05-05 19:24:46	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf5fc30…
05-05 19:24:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbeab68…
05-05 19:24:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb1d2b1…
05-05 19:14:54	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa04620…
05-05 19:14:52	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7e8396…
05-05 19:14:48	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc24e8a…
05-05 19:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x903231…
05-05 19:14:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3367cc…
05-05 19:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf2d160…
05-05 19:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0369f3…
05-05 19:04:48	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd96764…
05-05 19:04:46	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x9a0089…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	76	$12.3K	291	05-05 22:50
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	70	$1.61K	134	05-05 22:30
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	68	$28.7K	284	05-05 23:10
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	66	$1.17K	136	05-05 22:45
Huge-Tic 0x1058…fd57	66	$692	66	05-05 22:39
Waterlogged-Bread 0x5058…c865	63	$676	63	05-05 22:39
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	60	$4.25K	191	05-05 23:05
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	59	$621	157	05-05 23:05