Important-Insurgence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$40

Hit rate

91.8%

Resolved

775

Trades

4,126

lifetime

Volume

$1.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$253

Open exposure

$206

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-26 23:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Other

63% 85% +$2,301

Sports

36% 73% -$15,699

Politics

1% 67% -$4,008

Pop-Culture

0% 83% +$311

Crypto

0% 33% -$271

Tech

0% 0% -$36

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+491	$187	38¢	$189	+$2	06-28 16:16
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes		-415	-$54	4¢	$-17	+$37	06-08 14:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba cha hou 2026 02 05	18	$24.9K	24,913	0	+24,913	Hornets	+$28	02-06 06:03
will anthony davis be traded this season	25	$24.1K	12,047	12,047	+0	Yes	+$10	02-04 20:55
pltr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 02 2026 0pt23	12	$21.3K	21,342	0	+21,342	Yes	+$21	02-02 22:27
nba was cle 2026 02 11	2	$21.0K	21,009	0	+21,009	Cavaliers	+$29	02-12 02:20
lyft quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt12	12	$20.6K	20,662	0	+20,662	Yes	+$28	02-10 22:01
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 28 2026 0pt45	24	$20.1K	20,081	0	+20,081	Yes	+$20	01-28 22:32
nba nyk bos 2026 02 08	1	$20.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Knicks	+$20	02-08 20:07
will tiger woods play in the 2026 masters tournament	15	$19.9K	20,083	0	+20,083	No	+$192	04-09 22:56
cbb syra ncar 2026 02 02	13	$15.5K	15,501	0	+15,501	North Carolina Tar Heels	+$16	02-03 03:04
will the gatorade shower at super bowl lx be greenyellow	74	$15.4K	15,416	0	+15,416	Yes	+$15	02-09 07:34
aapl quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 29 2026 2pt67	33	$13.4K	13,413	0	+13,413	Yes	+$13	01-30 00:26
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	20	$12.8K	12,828	0	+12,828	Nuggets	+$13	04-28 04:52
nba cle phx 2026 01 30	46	$11.0K	10,980	0	+10,980	Suns	+$11	01-31 06:50
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	50	$10.6K	11,717	0	+11,717	Yes	+$1,089	04-28 02:51
bac quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 14 2026 0pt97	12	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	+$10	01-14 13:34
nba tor chi 2026 03 18	29	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	Raptors	+$10	03-19 04:28
nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	59	$9.9K	10,198	0	+10,198	Yes	+$281	02-25 22:21
will jessie buckley be nominated for best actress at the 98th academy awards	21	$8.9K	3,529	5,426	-1,897	Yes	+$0	01-20 10:13
will jessie buckley win best actress at the 2026 bafta awards	16	$7.9K	8,166	0	+8,166	Yes	+$229	02-22 14:54
cbb uconn creigh 2026 01 31	7	$7.7K	7,678	0	+7,678	Connecticut Huskies	+$8	02-01 04:39
v quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 29 2026 3pt14	19	$7.6K	7,657	0	+7,657	Yes	+$8	01-30 00:25
cbb arz mich 2026 04 04	1	$7.6K	7,655	0	+7,655	Michigan Wolverines	+$8	04-05 02:57
nba phi gsw 2026 02 03	13	$7.6K	7,575	0	+7,575	76ers	+$8	02-04 07:41
pfe quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 03 2026 0pt57	22	$7.3K	7,342	0	+7,342	Yes	+$7	02-03 13:59
2026 att pebble beach pro am winner jacob bridgeman win	13	$6.2K	6,248	0	+6,248	No	+$12	02-15 22:57
cbb bayl hou 2026 03 04	19	$6.1K	6,366	0	+6,366	Houston Cougars	+$267	03-05 04:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$5.9K	7,575	7,575	+0	No	-$4,090	09-14 20:06
arm quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 0pt41	13	$5.6K	5,613	0	+5,613	Yes	+$6	02-04 23:23
will alnylam pharmaceuticals alny be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	9	$5.6K	5,793	0	+5,793	No	+$233	03-06 23:42
mu quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 18 2026 8pt58	13	$5.5K	5,478	0	+5,478	Yes	+$8	03-18 21:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:12:18	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xe81a56…
10-26 23:02:41	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xa788f8…
10-26 07:21:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x234697…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xefdec9…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0xdff24c…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xcdf6bd…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	113	0¢	$0	0x8f1181…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x8873c6…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x031bff…
10-26 02:43:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	196	0¢	$1	0x00d0b1…
10-24 16:43:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x558340…
10-24 16:43:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x240520…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0xf834c6…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	84	0¢	$0	0x8e6430…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x861d3c…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x73b3f1…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x6190f7…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0x2c9957…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x2844b8…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	67	0¢	$0	0x1bb1ca…
10-24 16:43:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	160	0¢	$1	0x1524a3…
10-24 08:17:51	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xeb2140…
10-24 02:59:36	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xb11c79…
10-24 02:01:12	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x66e8a8…
10-23 20:18:12	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x6fe059…
10-23 20:18:11	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x327dae…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	139	0¢	$1	0xfa101a…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xf85a64…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xde00a9…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x9bb146…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	711	0¢	$3	0x967e92…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	230	0¢	$1	0x8893c4…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x82a82a…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$3	0x7f5d8b…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x735c2a…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x670e1d…
10-23 19:18:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x60ac94…
10-23 19:18:03	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x4a2531…
10-23 16:42:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x8d0fea…
10-23 16:40:59	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x4d09ea…
10-23 16:40:59	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x1cf8eb…
10-23 16:40:35	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	139	0¢	$1	0xf69c1d…
10-23 16:40:35	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xa0a1bf…
10-23 16:40:35	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x8ca84e…
10-23 16:40:35	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x89a16b…
10-23 16:40:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0xe955e6…
10-23 16:40:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xc2edf4…
10-23 16:40:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x300b80…
10-23 15:53:51	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xd4f7af…
10-23 15:32:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x695065…
10-23 15:24:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xbe1590…
10-23 15:24:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x635661…
10-23 15:24:03	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0xe1243d…
10-23 15:24:03	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x4a205d…
10-23 15:21:11	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xf09fbd…
10-23 15:21:11	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x65066d…
10-23 06:12:30	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd94b0b…
10-23 06:04:56	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xcf98ed…
10-23 06:04:56	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7d8a2f…
10-23 04:00:54	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe7a2da…
10-23 04:00:54	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x46bc46…
10-23 03:39:11	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xce0055…
10-23 03:39:11	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$1	0x8ff624…
10-23 03:39:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0xf806b1…
10-23 03:39:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	73	0¢	$0	0x7f7cb5…
10-23 03:39:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x5d5a88…
10-23 03:39:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	105	0¢	$0	0x0665a3…
10-23 03:00:39	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0xf65874…
10-23 02:26:59	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x3279a1…
10-23 01:58:39	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x0837a1…
10-22 21:26:32	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xebda6d…
10-22 21:18:56	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x3681ec…
10-22 20:31:27	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0x1ac881…
10-22 17:31:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xa8c03d…
10-22 17:31:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	70	0¢	$0	0x8bc55b…
10-22 17:31:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x75e4a7…
10-22 17:31:03	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	52	0¢	$0	0x40fe75…
10-22 06:33:23	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x18a8bc…
10-22 06:33:21	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xe7539d…
10-21 19:45:39	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x4366aa…
10-21 15:03:54	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x1aceca…
10-21 15:03:26	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x84275f…
10-21 15:03:24	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x5398da…
10-21 14:57:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0xc9fec0…
10-21 14:50:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x7e8b7c…
10-21 14:50:05	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x45a3dc…
10-21 14:50:00	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xdc4667…
10-21 14:50:00	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xcb9a96…
10-21 14:50:00	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0xb81f9e…
10-21 14:50:00	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6c2570…
10-21 14:49:57	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x0e26eb…
10-21 14:49:56	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x7c280a…
10-21 14:49:56	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6827f9…
10-21 08:47:51	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	115	0¢	$0	0x2548cc…
10-21 07:21:45	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	1,399	0¢	$6	0x1b2325…
10-20 20:51:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0xf41f9b…
10-20 20:51:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0x488ca5…
10-20 20:51:33	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	84	0¢	$0	0x0e3987…
10-20 15:00:09	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x3da469…
10-20 07:38:10	Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xcd6300…