Gloomy-Porcelain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$94

Unrealized P&L

-$70

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

Trades

149

lifetime

Volume

$8.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$288

9 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 11-04 10:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

54% 46% -$250

Sports

20% 44% -$52

Politics

17% 47% +$173

Crypto

8% 43% +$35

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+221	$150	68¢	$149	-$1	11-04 10:04
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	+132	$50	34¢	$45	-$5	11-03 04:59
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	+69	$50	56¢	$39	-$11	10-26 18:59
Will the Philadelphia 76ers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?	Yes	+108	$27	23¢	$25	-$2	07-24 16:52
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+51	$16	32¢	$16	+$0	11-04 10:08
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+91	$20	8¢	$7	-$13	07-30 11:59
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+103	$35	4¢	$4	-$31	08-02 12:38
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+326	$5	1¢	$2	-$3	07-29 17:22
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+56	$5	1¢	$0	-$5	08-02 12:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$583	476	476	+0	Yes	+$183	03-06 12:02
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	3	$443	267	267	+0	Yes	+$83	03-09 04:50
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 go the distance	2	$362	203	203	+0	No	+$42	07-12 03:56
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 3?	2	$281	152	152	+0	No	+$21	09-04 02:22
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$277	161	161	+0	Yes	+$45	11-04 04:43
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$254	162	162	+0	Yes	+$54	06-26 06:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	2	$248	155	155	+0	Yes	+$48	10-30 20:20
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$220	135	135	+0	Yes	+$44	05-24 04:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$215	143	143	+0	Yes	+$61	06-15 20:08
will crude oil cl hit high 75 by end of march 216 621 736 725 922 826 757	2	$214	115	115	+0	Yes	+$14	03-03 16:20
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	1	$200	233	0	+233	No	-$200	03-09 04:46
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	1	$180	322	0	+322	No	-$180	03-11 10:57
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	2	$174	103	103	+0	No	+$28	10-30 14:16
atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	2	$160	100	100	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$40	07-12 19:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$158	145	145	+0	Yes	+$118	06-15 20:03
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$150	221	0	+221	open	—	11-04 10:04
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	2	$148	131	131	+0	Yes	+$108	07-24 21:16
will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026 from september 3	2	$142	93	93	+0	Yes	+$43	09-04 13:04
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	2	$142	82	82	+0	No	+$22	09-06 21:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$127	231	0	+231	No	-$127	06-17 20:13
atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12 set handicap home 1pt5	2	$122	72	72	+0	Sinner	+$22	07-12 19:18
ufc gil3 vcepo 2026 08 01 totals 1pt5	2	$120	74	74	+0	Under	+$20	08-01 21:12
will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	2	$119	79	79	+0	No	+$31	08-18 16:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	2	$117	189	0	+189	No	-$117	09-06 21:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$117	86	85	+2	Yes	+$31	04-17 18:41
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	1	$100	295	0	+295	No	-$100	07-17 04:55
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	1	$100	146	0	+146	Yes	+$46	04-17 12:03
will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026	1	$100	138	0	+138	Yes	+$38	09-03 03:50
will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	1	$100	166	0	+166	Yes	+$66	08-21 19:39
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$100	149	0	+149	Yes	+$49	03-18 09:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 10:08:04	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	51	31¢	$16	0xa47dcf…
11-04 10:04:58	Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	221	68¢	$150	0x481200…
11-04 04:43:42	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	161	100¢	$161	0x2047e0…
11-03 04:59:30	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x30a588…
11-03 04:52:39	Spread: Warriors (-5.5)	Warriors	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xe46cb1…
11-01 18:18:22	Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	108	53¢	$57	0xb4d542…
10-31 14:59:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x5c1952…
10-31 14:51:45	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	161	72¢	$116	0x1cee98…
10-30 20:20:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	155	96¢	$148	0x527582…
10-30 17:13:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	22	14¢	$3	0xca3fd3…
10-30 14:16:42	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	No	SELL	103	98¢	$101	0xd2a9e9…
10-29 05:39:16	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?	No	BUY	103	71¢	$73	0x82b8bf…
10-28 05:01:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	155	65¢	$100	0xd0975e…
10-26 18:59:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x3bfd64…
10-24 05:36:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	33	63¢	$21	0x6af91d…
09-06 21:19:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Yes	BUY	130	62¢	$80	0x4df56d…
09-06 21:17:24	Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	No	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0x8089c5…
09-06 21:12:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Yes	BUY	59	62¢	$37	0x6ecfc2…
09-05 20:01:36	Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	No	BUY	82	73¢	$60	0xa5f25a…
09-05 20:00:03	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0x6d717c…
09-04 14:02:40	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	102	44¢	$45	0x460d8c…
09-04 13:58:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on September 4?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x866ddf…
09-04 13:56:34	will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x7bec4a…
09-04 13:04:52	will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026 from september 3	Yes	SELL	93	100¢	$92	0x2675cd…
09-04 09:56:54	will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026 from september 3	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xf6ca63…
09-04 02:22:58	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 3?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$151	0xf38c9e…
09-03 16:59:03	Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 3?	No	BUY	152	86¢	$130	0xe124ea…
09-03 16:32:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0xbd4b6c…
09-03 03:50:25	will wti dip to 90 by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	138	73¢	$100	0xe3b554…
08-30 09:40:58	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x6512fa…
08-28 19:45:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	Yes	BUY	95	3¢	$3	0x09d272…
08-26 21:07:09	will wti dip to 80 in august 2026 from august 26	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x5f0017…
08-26 07:58:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x4e00b8…
08-25 06:08:16	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xb56138…
08-25 06:00:25	will trump say china or chinese during remarks at nasa	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x68c803…
08-25 05:44:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of August 24 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xe84444…
08-23 13:46:51	Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0x793de9…
08-23 13:03:16	Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x869f6e…
08-22 14:44:04	Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0x271625…
08-21 19:39:40	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0x6b181f…
08-18 16:05:40	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	SELL	79	96¢	$75	0x366c2d…
08-08 07:39:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x7ec475…
08-04 14:31:03	Will Steph Curry's next team be Boston Celtics?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x9dedc3…
08-04 14:28:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	112	17¢	$19	0x91a1fe…
08-03 04:44:27	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	79	56¢	$44	0xf4fc73…
08-02 12:52:18	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xa8c2f7…
08-02 12:38:06	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0xfde027…
08-01 21:22:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xf42984…
08-01 21:12:59	ufc gil3 vcepo 2026 08 01 totals 1pt5	Under	SELL	74	95¢	$70	0xa543cb…
08-01 17:13:33	ufc gil3 vcepo 2026 08 01 totals 1pt5	Under	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x5a1151…
08-01 05:47:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x6b0ee2…
07-31 12:54:48	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	360	1¢	$5	0x0e4e25…
07-30 11:59:53	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x5ee158…
07-30 11:50:26	ufc lud tof 2026 08 01 go the distance	No	BUY	68	50¢	$34	0x43a429…
07-29 17:22:59	Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	326	2¢	$5	0xbf8317…
07-27 18:47:15	will wti dip to 75 in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x4715cf…
07-27 18:39:49	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x24932f…
07-26 14:12:06	f1 hungarian grand prix driver podium antonelli 2026 07 26	Yes	SELL	71	42¢	$30	0xc593a4…
07-26 11:45:58	f1 hungarian grand prix h2h leclerc vs piastri 2026 07 26	Piastri	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xb940da…
07-26 11:42:16	f1 hungarian grand prix driver podium antonelli 2026 07 26	Yes	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x2e03ed…
07-26 11:41:34	f1 hungarian grand prix driver podium russell 2026 07 26	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbeaa2e…
07-25 12:11:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x3cded9…
07-24 21:16:30	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	SELL	131	98¢	$128	0x25ab68…
07-24 16:52:39	Will the Philadelphia 76ers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?	Yes	BUY	108	25¢	$27	0x64de2e…
07-24 16:08:52	nba lebron to sign with former team 20260701212006851	No	SELL	59	99¢	$59	0x634974…
07-23 07:23:58	will wti dip to 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	71	57¢	$40	0xdff006…
07-21 16:14:55	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0x9d7179…
07-21 08:01:09	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0xe5e059…
07-19 21:17:07	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x676657…
07-19 18:50:36	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x3c015b…
07-19 05:06:13	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	123	32¢	$40	0xaad856…
07-19 04:58:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	275	18¢	$50	0x895f69…
07-19 04:57:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0xb55694…
07-19 04:34:51	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	360	14¢	$50	0xfabc79…
07-18 21:40:48	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x1bd9ea…
07-18 21:32:27	ufc kam dri 2026 07 18 go the distance	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x33af45…
07-17 04:55:54	Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	295	34¢	$100	0x1a5a00…
07-17 04:52:52	Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?	Yes	BUY	131	15¢	$20	0x044d4a…
07-17 04:48:57	Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?	Yes	SELL	107	20¢	$21	0x3aaa66…
07-15 21:06:55	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x5e2c66…
07-15 20:39:41	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc89365…
07-15 18:54:13	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 first half team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x21a497…
07-14 20:35:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	No	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xce9d3a…
07-14 18:24:58	France leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x1774a8…
07-14 18:22:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x247892…
07-12 20:29:29	nba lebron to sign with former team 20260701212006851	No	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x335dda…
07-12 20:27:43	Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?	Yes	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0xf8b44d…
07-12 19:18:55	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12 set handicap home 1pt5	Sinner	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x67fd7e…
07-12 19:18:38	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x52eda1…
07-12 16:27:10	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x2047c2…
07-12 12:42:07	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12 set handicap home 1pt5	Sinner	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x2932e8…
07-12 03:56:40	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 go the distance	No	SELL	203	100¢	$202	0x13b60f…
07-11 20:04:08	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x4b9fe8…
07-11 19:44:29	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xba9d9c…
07-11 18:04:55	ufc pad ben8 2026 07 11	Paddy Pimblett	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xfb7c12…
07-11 16:31:10	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 go the distance	No	BUY	203	79¢	$160	0x1ad2c8…
07-01 20:47:22	Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x8e3720…
06-26 06:55:47	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	162	95¢	$154	0xb73862…
06-18 20:51:41	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x625ed6…
06-17 20:13:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	231	55¢	$127	0xe0cd9b…