Unfit-Diversity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.39K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.5%

Resolved

228

Trades

1,265

lifetime

Volume

$28.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-12

last 10-17 02:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Politics

47% 30% -$1,474

Sports

35% 18% -$487

Other

15% 12% +$618

Crypto

2% 50% -$43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	28	$3.5K	25,508	25,508	+0	No	-$248	07-06 11:14
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	16	$3.1K	121,752	121,752	+0	No	+$27	06-11 21:40
will iran strike israel on march 4	185	$3.1K	73,135	27,658	+45,477	Yes	-$1,419	03-07 19:18
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	10	$1.8K	7,491	7,491	+0	No	-$121	07-06 03:09
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	48	$1.4K	11,135	10,885	+250	No	-$81	07-04 11:26
iran leadership change by march 31	7	$1.2K	2,580	2,580	+0	No	+$14	03-20 08:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$1.2K	2,031	2,031	+0	Yes	+$69	02-28 17:56
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$1.1K	1,310	1,310	+0	No	+$131	03-15 14:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	10	$1.0K	889	889	+0	Yes	-$1	03-06 09:11
will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	10	$851	892	541	+350	No	+$190	06-11 02:17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	11	$812	1,690	390	+1,300	No	-$467	09-14 20:29
will iran strike israel on march 7	17	$730	2,051	1,746	+305	Yes	-$89	03-07 17:47
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	3	$699	917	917	+0	No	+$70	03-10 15:54
will israel strike lebanon on february 13 2026	4	$383	254	254	+0	No	+$62	02-13 15:45
mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	20	$346	1,412	1,412	+0	No	-$33	03-20 08:48
will iran strike israel on march 8	9	$342	806	806	+0	Yes	-$61	03-08 00:28
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	16	$307	3,873	3,873	+0	No	-$60	06-15 18:19
will iran strike israel on march 6	6	$293	1,841	1,841	+0	No	-$67	03-10 15:37
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	8	$200	1,039	1,449	-411	No	+$19	05-27 06:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$199	763	258	+505	No	-$34	04-18 06:28
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	2	$194	174	174	+0	Yes	$0	07-02 06:36
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	24	$190	8,067	471	+7,596	Yes	-$171	08-04 13:44
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	8	$181	1,306	1,306	+0	open	—	05-26 15:18
will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by july 31 20260722053445709	34	$167	5,280	3,280	+2,000	No	-$47	07-27 21:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$157	162	162	+0	Yes	+$57	02-28 14:06
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	9	$156	725	725	+0	Yes	+$20	02-28 07:26
will israel strike lebanon on february 15 2026	5	$153	121	121	+0	Yes	+$75	02-15 20:09
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	4	$152	382	382	+0	Justin Gaethje	-$6	06-14 05:10
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	8	$134	1,419	1,419	+0	No	-$40	05-26 15:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$130	2,383	2,383	+0	No	-$25	05-27 05:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 02:33:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	250	22¢	$55	0x2047ef…
10-16 18:19:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	Yes	BUY	375	1¢	$3	0x08dae6…
10-16 18:18:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$4	0xa0f291…
10-16 18:18:38	Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?	No	SELL	70	11¢	$8	0xaab26e…
10-16 18:18:35	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31?	No	SELL	75	31¢	$23	0x135972…
10-15 09:21:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	250	21¢	$52	0x00b33c…
10-13 07:21:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31?	No	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xb2da3b…
10-11 12:43:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$7	0xf5c618…
10-11 12:42:37	Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?	No	BUY	70	18¢	$13	0xc7ae69…
10-08 21:48:15	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Yes	BUY	99	7¢	$7	0xca6016…
10-08 21:47:50	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Yes	BUY	120	6¢	$7	0x00aa6f…
10-08 11:43:32	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	207	10¢	$21	0x17539f…
10-07 14:48:10	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	93	11¢	$10	0x5a1793…
10-05 14:14:17	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x6f1ecf…
09-19 14:33:50	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	9,900	0¢	$10	0x8f2101…
09-17 09:51:12	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x642423…
09-17 09:50:28	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0xdd5453…
09-17 09:14:28	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0x96e7af…
09-16 21:39:22	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	SELL	30	35¢	$11	0x41c4a9…
09-16 20:24:19	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	SELL	120	35¢	$42	0x701331…
09-16 20:15:12	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	55	22¢	$12	0xeab7c6…
09-16 20:10:16	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xbd40b5…
09-16 20:09:31	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x49cd28…
09-16 20:09:30	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xefe71d…
09-16 20:09:30	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	104	22¢	$23	0x3120e7…
09-16 20:07:13	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0xafbf5f…
09-16 20:07:13	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x64abf0…
09-16 20:07:13	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0x277cde…
09-16 20:07:12	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x784d88…
09-16 20:07:12	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x2afec9…
09-14 20:41:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	306	1¢	$3	0x72e83a…
09-14 20:29:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xc0a80e…
09-14 20:00:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	315	13¢	$41	0xfe996d…
09-13 22:06:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xaac0d6…
09-11 12:41:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	989	1¢	$8	0x62a7e9…
09-11 12:37:22	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xa0f917…
09-10 13:49:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x835556…
09-10 12:55:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	38¢	$57	0x1475a4…
09-10 11:27:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	46¢	$115	0x9ae7ea…
09-10 11:12:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	90	46¢	$41	0x1a89bc…
09-10 08:40:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	513	45¢	$231	0x72acb9…
09-10 08:29:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	438	45¢	$197	0xc89759…
09-10 08:18:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	139	45¢	$63	0x337af5…
09-10 08:17:55	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	36	27¢	$10	0x8974e6…
09-10 08:17:48	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	28	35¢	$10	0x93318d…
09-10 08:17:39	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0x4d7f62…
09-10 08:16:45	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	28	39¢	$11	0x361644…
09-10 08:15:07	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x32b195…
09-10 07:51:51	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	70	17¢	$12	0x20e91c…
09-09 04:14:55	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	170	17¢	$29	0xecc170…
09-09 04:09:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	56¢	$33	0x32e527…
09-09 04:09:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x391b44…
09-09 04:09:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	33¢	$14	0x33c988…
09-08 15:04:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	58¢	$35	0x00f0de…
09-08 15:03:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0xe50d09…
09-08 15:03:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xb5b813…
09-08 13:05:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	14¢	$3	0x38935a…
09-08 13:05:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	34¢	$5	0x1b1687…
09-08 13:05:31	Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	63¢	$10	0x829af3…
09-08 13:05:27	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	11¢	$13	0x6a29c0…
09-08 13:05:24	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	145	17¢	$24	0x56ee01…
09-08 12:43:16	Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0xd5b5c6…
09-08 12:41:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,250	0¢	$6	0xe300f4…
09-04 10:07:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xa029e5…
09-04 10:07:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	19¢	$4	0xde703d…
09-03 09:14:34	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x86483c…
09-03 09:14:22	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	114	18¢	$20	0x2ab4b9…
09-03 09:11:27	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	31	18¢	$6	0x3808dc…
09-03 09:05:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	17¢	$6	0x5a2f16…
09-01 19:21:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	20¢	$7	0xca3c08…
09-01 19:17:30	New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	Yes	SELL	75	9¢	$7	0xd8c413…
08-16 10:03:04	New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	Yes	BUY	75	5¢	$4	0xfd08c8…
08-16 10:00:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$3	0xee1481…
08-15 13:03:55	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	47	0¢	$0	0x051913…
08-15 06:07:46	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xd9f72f…
08-15 05:53:06	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0x4d7971…
08-14 11:15:12	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	390	1¢	$4	0x9f98d2…
08-14 08:50:00	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xda4e5d…
08-14 08:48:15	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15 machado garry win by ko tko	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0x77eca3…
08-14 08:47:19	will trump attend ufc 330 20260810203716922	Yes	BUY	122	2¢	$2	0x44d6a2…
08-14 08:46:27	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15	Ian Machado Garry	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xbb2377…
08-05 10:52:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	118	15¢	$18	0x5383cb…
08-05 10:51:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0xb20e7e…
08-05 10:51:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	312	3¢	$9	0xbad4fb…
08-05 08:35:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x7b9637…
08-05 08:30:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0x31c1a4…
08-04 13:47:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xfd8065…
08-04 13:44:38	Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	373	0¢	$2	0xcd981d…
08-04 13:40:08	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	91	1¢	$1	0xf86745…
08-04 13:39:59	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	147	3¢	$4	0x47d18c…
08-04 13:36:57	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x707a19…
08-04 12:58:00	Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0x074f2b…
08-04 08:31:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	35	42¢	$15	0x719487…
08-04 08:31:06	foreign intervention in gaza by august 31	Yes	SELL	72	7¢	$5	0x6eec1a…
08-04 06:14:29	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x4a394a…
08-04 06:14:15	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$3	0xc29192…
08-04 06:12:12	Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x5109c3…
08-04 06:11:24	Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x6c2869…
08-04 06:08:48	Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfd076c…
08-04 06:03:03	Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xd65474…