Majestic-Dysfunction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.92K

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

116

Trades

1,743

lifetime

Volume

$238.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$137

Open exposure

$16.2K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 22:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Politics

53% 45% +$18,221

Other

42% 54% -$8,426

Crypto

3% 100% +$2,081

Sports

1% 67% +$949

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$467

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+17,134	$9,766	56¢	$9.6K	-$171	09-26 06:19
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+54,752	$4,507	6¢	$3.2K	-$1,304	05-04 23:33
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	+2,077	$1,687	90¢	$1.9K	+$182	05-14 02:26
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+3,333	$1,100	20¢	$683	-$417	10-25 03:07
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+3,333	$900	20¢	$683	-$217	10-27 13:57
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+3,503	$87	2¢	$82	-$4	10-23 00:52
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+210	$32	18¢	$38	+$6	10-22 18:00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+352	$12	4¢	$15	+$3	07-07 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	34	$24.3K	20,155	20,155	+0	Yes	+$13,550	05-19 22:50
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	10	$20.2K	13,000	13,000	+0	open	—	10-25 18:01
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$13.2K	8,858	18,013	-9,155	Yes	+$496	01-17 20:59
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	17	$12.1K	22,581	0	+22,581	Yes	-$12,148	05-15 20:01
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	107	$11.8K	20,052	0	+20,052	No	+$8,252	05-15 14:19
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$10.4K	11,000	0	+11,000	No	+$561	10-25 23:40
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	1	$9.8K	17,134	0	+17,134	open	—	09-26 06:19
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	28	$8.7K	7,300	7,300	+0	open	—	09-15 18:04
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	6	$8.0K	10,105	0	+10,105	No	+$2,066	04-17 01:09
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	10	$7.8K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$909	01-25 02:34
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	3	$6.2K	7,000	7,000	+0	Yes	+$590	05-16 18:49
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	2	$6.1K	7,294	0	+7,294	open	—	10-27 04:15
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	2	$4.8K	8,161	929	+7,232	No	+$3,700	08-29 18:43
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	2	$4.6K	2,955	2,955	+0	No	+$335	07-14 08:24
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	5	$4.5K	54,752	0	+54,752	open	—	05-04 23:33
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	2	$4.1K	3,101	3,101	+0	No	+$196	05-17 20:56
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	7	$4.0K	11,808	21,606	-9,798	No	+$432	01-18 23:15
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	26	$3.6K	2,222	2,222	+0	Yes	+$444	01-26 04:10
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$3.6K	0	5,234	-5,234	Yes	-$1,660	05-14 02:21
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$2.5K	5,601	0	+5,601	Yes	+$3,122	02-19 05:15
Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31?	6	$2.5K	2,628	0	+2,628	No	+$171	05-07 20:17
nancy guthrie kidnapper arrested by february 28	42	$2.4K	4,819	0	+4,819	No	-$2,418	02-12 20:38
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	9	$2.2K	2,194	0	+2,194	Yes	+$8	05-23 19:40
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	1	$2.1K	0	2,642	-2,642	Yes	-$527	04-30 13:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	22	$2.1K	0	3,333	-3,333	No	-$1,233	05-23 00:28
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	1	$1.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$2,087	10-25 18:34
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	1	$1.9K	6,150	0	+6,150	Yes	+$4,294	06-21 04:35
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	5	$1.8K	4,501	0	+4,501	open	—	10-16 15:44
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.7K	4,400	4,400	+0	No	-$749	05-12 14:41
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	1	$1.7K	2,077	0	+2,077	open	—	05-14 02:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:04:14	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	370	70¢	$259	0xc02bba…
10-27 22:01:51	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0xb3e482…
10-27 22:01:48	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x5f8e2f…
10-27 22:01:47	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd5a0a4…
10-27 22:01:45	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x4f9132…
10-27 22:01:44	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x98d39d…
10-27 22:00:41	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x880769…
10-27 22:00:33	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5f6729…
10-27 22:00:29	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0xaa3b51…
10-27 13:57:20	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,333	27¢	$900	0x81fe2c…
10-27 13:38:08	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x371814…
10-27 04:15:17	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	131	84¢	$110	0x78717b…
10-27 04:15:17	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	7,163	84¢	$6,000	0x0e40c6…
10-27 01:52:03	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x0a60b8…
10-27 01:51:54	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	992	95¢	$939	0x781860…
10-27 01:34:24	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	4,635	0¢	$16	0x68dd1a…
10-27 01:21:33	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	4,635	5¢	$229	0x6f6a36…
10-26 23:37:44	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x05aa8e…
10-26 19:51:05	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xf12280…
10-26 18:25:02	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	12	70¢	$9	0xb304a7…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	417	70¢	$292	0xa797b6…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x9dee5d…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x90510e…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x1b8233…
10-26 03:27:24	Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,373	16¢	$700	0x1d0d74…
10-26 03:27:14	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	706	15¢	$106	0x135eeb…
10-26 01:13:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	146	75¢	$109	0x0bb946…
10-26 00:58:29	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	62	75¢	$46	0xd8427c…
10-26 00:52:27	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0x3e473d…
10-26 00:46:32	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0xc0e924…
10-26 00:46:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x4cd473…
10-26 00:46:18	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x23b8c5…
10-26 00:46:08	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb50bdb…
10-26 00:45:53	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x022578…
10-26 00:45:48	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x42471b…
10-26 00:45:36	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x663752…
10-26 00:45:30	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x784258…
10-26 00:45:30	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x731041…
10-26 00:40:18	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x5e3f70…
10-26 00:40:17	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x08fb3b…
10-26 00:39:33	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x8edeb1…
10-26 00:35:06	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x633836…
10-26 00:34:45	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xc36444…
10-26 00:34:12	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x2287ac…
10-25 23:40:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	11,000	95¢	$10,439	0xe8c2db…
10-25 18:34:36	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	4,000	48¢	$1,913	0x2dafa9…
10-25 18:01:06	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9,847	67¢	$6,610	0xb56b01…
10-25 17:58:29	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,153	73¢	$2,292	0x64abb9…
10-25 03:16:18	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xb4c0a4…
10-25 03:16:18	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0xa0a804…
10-25 03:16:18	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	1,072	6¢	$60	0x7623f7…
10-25 03:16:00	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	SELL	1,111	6¢	$68	0xe4d081…
10-25 03:07:18	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,333	33¢	$1,100	0x2211a1…
10-23 22:49:45	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x237800…
10-23 22:32:29	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	45	75¢	$34	0x63a3c0…
10-23 22:32:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	81	75¢	$61	0x713874…
10-23 21:00:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	151	75¢	$113	0xc70cf6…
10-23 21:00:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	24	75¢	$18	0xb261cd…
10-23 21:00:23	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	31	75¢	$23	0x1c85e1…
10-23 08:45:08	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	47	87¢	$40	0xcc4fd5…
10-23 08:34:56	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$10	0xb3a637…
10-23 07:55:20	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11,350	87¢	$9,874	0x435c21…
10-23 07:45:57	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x0863fb…
10-23 07:30:51	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x933773…
10-23 07:04:11	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xcb04aa…
10-23 06:37:06	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	139	87¢	$121	0x15a2bf…
10-23 06:37:05	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,422	87¢	$1,237	0x9709dd…
10-23 00:52:32	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3,001	2¢	$75	0x75d09f…
10-23 00:51:33	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	502	2¢	$12	0x29bbfc…
10-23 00:03:59	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	643	10¢	$64	0x7b51a5…
10-23 00:03:50	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0xf0567c…
10-23 00:03:50	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	57	10¢	$6	0xe5081b…
10-23 00:03:50	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	1,111	11¢	$122	0xa7962f…
10-23 00:03:50	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x1bd510…
10-23 00:03:50	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0e15dc…
10-23 00:03:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	145	10¢	$14	0xedff0f…
10-23 00:03:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	45	10¢	$4	0xedd0de…
10-23 00:03:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xcbccce…
10-23 00:03:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	66	10¢	$7	0x9e64f6…
10-23 00:03:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x5a185f…
10-22 22:43:29	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	478	8¢	$39	0xff4f85…
10-22 18:00:15	Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	1,527	4¢	$61	0xb9c648…
10-22 18:00:02	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	210	15¢	$32	0x4b43d5…
10-22 17:59:53	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	64	5¢	$3	0xba007f…
10-16 15:44:34	Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2,805	42¢	$1,175	0x7c4de1…
10-14 18:39:33	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xe75c4a…
10-14 18:38:40	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xcaf813…
10-14 18:38:31	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xd1482b…
10-14 18:38:27	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x725a2b…
10-14 18:38:19	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x5ec189…
10-14 18:38:15	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	22	25¢	$6	0xa105a3…
10-14 17:31:06	idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion 20260729165257291	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x7c86d9…
10-14 03:04:56	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x949227…
10-14 01:51:13	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x11b28e…
10-14 01:50:49	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xedee6b…
10-14 01:39:53	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x96a57e…
10-14 00:41:06	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x57b2ec…
10-14 00:02:46	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x04845d…
10-14 00:02:03	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xe9939c…
10-13 23:57:09	Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x18560e…