Majestic-Dysfunction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.50K

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

116

Trades

1,800

lifetime

Volume

$265.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$147

Open exposure

$10.3K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-01 07:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Politics

50% 45% +$18,221

Other

46% 54% -$8,426

Crypto

3% 100% +$2,081

Sports

1% 67% +$949

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$467

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	No	+5,000	$3,450	68¢	$3.4K	-$25	11-01 03:39
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+54,752	$4,507	6¢	$3.1K	-$1,359	05-04 23:33
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	+2,077	$1,687	93¢	$1.9K	+$245	05-14 02:26
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+3,333	$1,100	22¢	$750	-$350	10-25 03:07
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+3,333	$900	22¢	$750	-$150	10-27 13:57
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+3,503	$87	6¢	$201	+$115	10-23 00:52
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+210	$32	26¢	$54	+$23	10-22 18:00
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+352	$12	4¢	$14	+$2	07-07 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	34	$24.3K	20,155	20,155	+0	Yes	+$13,550	05-19 22:50
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	10	$20.2K	13,000	13,000	+0	open	—	10-25 18:01
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	23	$16.8K	17,134	17,134	+0	open	—	10-30 18:20
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$13.2K	8,858	18,013	-9,155	Yes	+$496	01-17 20:59
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	17	$12.1K	22,581	0	+22,581	Yes	-$12,148	05-15 20:01
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	107	$11.8K	20,052	0	+20,052	No	+$8,252	05-15 14:19
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$10.4K	11,000	0	+11,000	No	+$561	10-25 23:40
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	28	$8.7K	7,300	7,300	+0	open	—	09-15 18:04
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?	6	$8.0K	10,105	0	+10,105	No	+$2,066	04-17 01:09
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes 363	10	$7.8K	4,500	4,500	+0	No	+$909	01-25 02:34
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	3	$6.2K	7,000	7,000	+0	Yes	+$590	05-16 18:49
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	2	$6.1K	7,294	0	+7,294	open	—	10-27 04:15
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	5	$5.0K	11,312	0	+11,312	open	—	10-31 00:58
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	2	$4.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	11-01 01:28
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	2	$4.8K	8,161	929	+7,232	No	+$3,700	08-29 18:43
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	2	$4.6K	2,955	2,955	+0	No	+$335	07-14 08:24
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	5	$4.5K	54,752	0	+54,752	open	—	05-04 23:33
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	2	$4.1K	3,101	3,101	+0	No	+$196	05-17 20:56
will joo cotrim figueiredo win the 2026 portugal presidential election 643	7	$4.0K	11,808	21,606	-9,798	No	+$432	01-18 23:15
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	26	$3.6K	2,222	2,222	+0	Yes	+$444	01-26 04:10
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	1	$3.6K	0	5,234	-5,234	Yes	-$1,660	05-14 02:21
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	1	$3.4K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	11-01 03:39
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	3	$2.5K	5,601	0	+5,601	Yes	+$3,122	02-19 05:15
Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31?	6	$2.5K	2,628	0	+2,628	No	+$171	05-07 20:17
nancy guthrie kidnapper arrested by february 28	42	$2.4K	4,819	0	+4,819	No	-$2,418	02-12 20:38
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?	9	$2.2K	2,194	0	+2,194	Yes	+$8	05-23 19:40
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	1	$2.1K	0	2,642	-2,642	Yes	-$527	04-30 13:11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	22	$2.1K	0	3,333	-3,333	No	-$1,233	05-23 00:28
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	6	$2.1K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	10-30 07:55
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	1	$1.9K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$2,087	10-25 18:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 07:48:21	Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	BUY	3,049	37¢	$1,128	0xc19adc…
11-01 07:48:15	Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	3,200	37¢	$1,184	0x7f2f83…
11-01 07:37:19	Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x7a29f1…
11-01 07:37:18	Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?	No	BUY	101	37¢	$37	0x4e9d68…
11-01 03:39:01	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?	No	BUY	5,000	69¢	$3,450	0x3afc3f…
11-01 02:10:21	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	131	80¢	$105	0xc5fe90…
11-01 01:28:39	Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	SELL	4,000	58¢	$2,339	0x482095…
11-01 01:21:24	Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	4,000	63¢	$2,515	0x461c59…
11-01 00:01:19	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	70	25¢	$18	0xa1bafc…
10-31 22:57:10	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xf0f79d…
10-31 22:57:10	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x56f2c4…
10-31 22:05:01	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	6,611	28¢	$1,851	0x8b9ce6…
10-31 20:52:43	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	383	80¢	$306	0x4f42f3…
10-31 12:42:12	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xf4f129…
10-31 12:42:12	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0xb81376…
10-31 00:58:45	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	61	37¢	$23	0xbdf6ed…
10-31 00:58:45	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	52	37¢	$19	0x16c731…
10-31 00:58:36	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	71	38¢	$27	0x62f087…
10-31 00:58:28	Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	278	38¢	$106	0x1913f9…
10-31 00:26:39	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	7,662	45¢	$3,436	0xd56476…
10-30 20:25:55	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	33	49¢	$16	0x0852a4…
10-30 18:21:37	Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	No	BUY	60	55¢	$33	0xa1a947…
10-30 18:20:39	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	409	49¢	$200	0x77da71…
10-30 18:20:27	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	13,507	41¢	$5,538	0xd0161d…
10-30 18:19:58	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	723	46¢	$332	0x85563d…
10-30 18:19:58	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0x622ace…
10-30 18:19:58	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	70	45¢	$32	0x6063bf…
10-30 18:19:40	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	SELL	411	52¢	$212	0x7a15cc…
10-30 18:19:31	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	784	50¢	$393	0x01ff9b…
10-30 17:55:39	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x298d0d…
10-30 17:55:36	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	52	41¢	$22	0x3fc5e6…
10-30 17:55:19	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x5d1141…
10-30 17:55:18	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	300	41¢	$123	0xd41eaf…
10-30 17:50:22	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0xccac98…
10-30 15:27:16	Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	No	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0x07c434…
10-30 15:23:34	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	502	41¢	$206	0xec23d9…
10-30 12:38:51	Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	No	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x1dc93c…
10-30 09:30:24	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	65	41¢	$27	0xfb9c65…
10-30 09:30:24	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	75	41¢	$31	0xb44d9a…
10-30 09:30:24	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0xaf400e…
10-30 09:30:24	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	144	41¢	$59	0x3d095c…
10-30 09:03:06	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	16	41¢	$7	0xd9bb5c…
10-30 09:02:31	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	232	41¢	$95	0x690973…
10-30 08:33:54	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xfe4260…
10-30 08:25:04	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x1f0fab…
10-30 08:05:49	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xa6a739…
10-30 08:05:24	Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xb4e01f…
10-30 07:57:45	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xc11689…
10-30 07:55:21	Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	Yes	BUY	499	55¢	$273	0x95f5b2…
10-30 07:14:25	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	30	41¢	$12	0xf4735d…
10-30 07:14:25	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	400	41¢	$164	0x93d280…
10-30 07:14:25	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	75	41¢	$31	0x6afa7d…
10-30 06:15:27	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x479d1c…
10-30 06:15:25	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	1,593	41¢	$653	0x79f3ca…
10-30 05:48:54	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	2,535	44¢	$1,111	0x7629fb…
10-29 09:29:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x75d755…
10-29 03:17:17	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Yes	BUY	1,002	43¢	$435	0x05b589…
10-27 22:04:14	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	370	70¢	$259	0xc02bba…
10-27 22:01:51	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0xb3e482…
10-27 22:01:48	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x5f8e2f…
10-27 22:01:47	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd5a0a4…
10-27 22:01:45	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x4f9132…
10-27 22:01:44	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x98d39d…
10-27 22:00:41	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x880769…
10-27 22:00:33	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x5f6729…
10-27 22:00:29	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0xaa3b51…
10-27 13:57:20	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,333	27¢	$900	0x81fe2c…
10-27 13:38:08	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x371814…
10-27 04:15:17	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	131	84¢	$110	0x78717b…
10-27 04:15:17	Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	No	BUY	7,163	84¢	$6,000	0x0e40c6…
10-27 01:52:03	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x0a60b8…
10-27 01:51:54	Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Yes	BUY	992	95¢	$939	0x781860…
10-27 01:34:24	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	4,635	0¢	$16	0x68dd1a…
10-27 01:21:33	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	4,635	5¢	$229	0x6f6a36…
10-26 23:37:44	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x05aa8e…
10-26 19:51:05	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xf12280…
10-26 18:25:02	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	12	70¢	$9	0xb304a7…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	417	70¢	$292	0xa797b6…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x9dee5d…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x90510e…
10-26 18:25:00	Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x1b8233…
10-26 03:27:24	Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,373	16¢	$700	0x1d0d74…
10-26 03:27:14	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	706	15¢	$106	0x135eeb…
10-26 01:13:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	146	75¢	$109	0x0bb946…
10-26 00:58:29	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	62	75¢	$46	0xd8427c…
10-26 00:52:27	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0x3e473d…
10-26 00:46:32	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0xc0e924…
10-26 00:46:24	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x4cd473…
10-26 00:46:18	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x23b8c5…
10-26 00:46:08	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xb50bdb…
10-26 00:45:53	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x022578…
10-26 00:45:48	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x42471b…
10-26 00:45:36	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x663752…
10-26 00:45:30	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x784258…
10-26 00:45:30	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0x731041…
10-26 00:40:18	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x5e3f70…
10-26 00:40:17	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x08fb3b…
10-26 00:39:33	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x8edeb1…
10-26 00:35:06	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0x633836…
10-26 00:34:45	Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xc36444…