Late-Modernist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

38.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$240

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-23

last 09-17 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

68% 46% +$994

Politics

32% 25% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	No		+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	09-17 03:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$974	506	506	+0	No	-$1	05-13 03:35
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	4	$964	497	497	+0	No	$0	05-09 03:13
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$944	494	494	+0	No	+$0	05-08 05:00
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	2	$874	455	455	+0	No	+$5	07-08 05:23
will russia capture havrylivka by september 30 2026	2	$856	455	455	+0	No	+$0	08-13 12:43
another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	2	$856	460	460	+0	No	+$0	08-14 03:19
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	2	$856	458	458	+0	open	—	08-14 04:25
will russia capture kucheriv yar by august 31 20260724165221453	2	$852	460	460	+0	No	+$0	08-13 11:51
will trump visit north korea by december 31	2	$846	450	450	+0	open	—	07-08 07:00
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	3	$842	455	455	+0	open	—	07-17 01:05
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	3	$795	410	410	+0	No	+$8	06-24 07:01
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	2	$792	440	440	+0	open	—	06-23 08:45
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	2	$790	425	425	+0	No	+$0	06-23 07:15
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	5	$787	410	410	+0	No	+$0	06-24 05:31
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)	1	$487	493	0	+493	FC Machida Zelvia	+$6	05-13 04:13
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	1	$481	491	0	+491	Sevilla FC	+$10	05-09 06:37
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5)	1	$472	482	0	+482	Viborg FF	+$10	05-08 06:04
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	8	$64	885	885	+0	No	$0	04-23 06:50
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	4	$59	1,010	1,010	+0	No	+$0	05-15 06:19
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	2	$49	1,030	0	+1,030	Auckland FC	+$981	05-15 07:11
den ran fcf 2026 04 23 spread away 2pt5	3	$18	871	0	+871	Randers FC	-$18	04-23 06:54
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	09-17 03:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 03:50:43	Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xa5e406…
08-14 04:25:18	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	458	93¢	$428	0xcf595a…
08-14 03:25:00	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	458	93¢	$428	0xf65709…
08-14 03:19:34	another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	No	SELL	460	93¢	$428	0xb27060…
08-14 02:25:49	another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	No	BUY	460	93¢	$428	0xd90205…
08-13 12:43:13	will russia capture havrylivka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	455	94¢	$428	0x41eecd…
08-13 11:54:16	will russia capture havrylivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	455	94¢	$428	0xfb3435…
08-13 11:51:37	will russia capture kucheriv yar by august 31 20260724165221453	No	SELL	460	93¢	$426	0xe3b247…
08-13 11:22:55	will russia capture kucheriv yar by august 31 20260724165221453	No	BUY	460	93¢	$426	0xbb950d…
07-17 01:05:40	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x8755bb…
07-17 01:05:17	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	446	93¢	$415	0x41dbf7…
07-16 06:05:40	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0x022f80…
07-08 07:00:43	will trump visit north korea by december 31	No	SELL	450	94¢	$423	0x931629…
07-08 05:55:11	will trump visit north korea by december 31	No	BUY	450	94¢	$423	0x9f0a92…
07-08 05:23:40	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	SELL	455	97¢	$440	0x4703a5…
07-08 03:04:28	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	No	BUY	455	96¢	$435	0x95b40f…
06-24 07:01:26	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	89	97¢	$86	0x34a185…
06-24 06:58:47	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	321	98¢	$316	0x05cf5f…
06-24 05:37:47	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	410	96¢	$394	0xad2f41…
06-24 05:31:50	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	110	96¢	$106	0x427c5d…
06-24 05:31:37	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x234234…
06-24 05:31:08	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x8f3d45…
06-24 05:30:56	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x6e9668…
06-24 02:23:20	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	410	96¢	$393	0xa7837e…
06-23 08:45:14	Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	SELL	440	90¢	$396	0x97e467…
06-23 08:06:58	Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	No	BUY	440	90¢	$396	0x2316ab…
06-23 07:15:44	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	No	SELL	425	93¢	$395	0x5a38e4…
06-23 05:51:35	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30?	No	BUY	425	93¢	$395	0x6bb9cd…
05-15 07:11:00	Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	Auckland FC	BUY	520	5¢	$25	0x738cb9…
05-15 07:10:27	Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5)	Auckland FC	BUY	510	5¢	$24	0x556db3…
05-15 06:19:09	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	510	3¢	$15	0xfad2ef…
05-15 06:18:49	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$14	0x7b1a45…
05-15 05:48:47	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	499	3¢	$14	0x03c81e…
05-15 05:48:17	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	511	3¢	$15	0xe6cbde…
05-13 04:13:05	Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)	FC Machida Zelvia	BUY	493	99¢	$487	0xfd729b…
05-13 03:35:15	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x1ba302…
05-13 03:33:20	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	496	96¢	$477	0x9b232f…
05-13 02:55:11	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	506	96¢	$487	0xe306ee…
05-09 06:37:18	Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)	Sevilla FC	BUY	491	98¢	$481	0x98d0df…
05-09 03:13:24	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	397	97¢	$385	0x4cdddf…
05-09 03:12:23	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xb923e3…
05-09 02:38:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	397	97¢	$385	0xc49958…
05-09 02:38:08	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x6bf838…
05-08 06:04:19	Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5)	Viborg FF	BUY	482	98¢	$472	0xb3ed7b…
05-08 05:00:56	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	494	96¢	$472	0x7159ba…
05-08 03:13:36	Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	494	96¢	$472	0xfbefa6…
04-23 06:54:56	den ran fcf 2026 04 23 spread away 2pt5	FC Fredericia	BUY	418	2¢	$9	0x42697b…
04-23 06:54:18	den ran fcf 2026 04 23 spread away 2pt5	FC Fredericia	BUY	333	2¢	$7	0x6bf64a…
04-23 06:53:48	den ran fcf 2026 04 23 spread away 2pt5	FC Fredericia	BUY	120	2¢	$3	0x9dafcc…
04-23 06:50:46	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$5	0x33ec35…
04-23 06:50:32	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	459	4¢	$17	0x0a7035…
04-23 06:50:16	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	4¢	$5	0x457228…
04-23 06:50:04	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xeec6f8…
04-23 06:49:52	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xc93653…
04-23 05:45:56	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	437	4¢	$16	0x810697…
04-23 05:45:08	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	4¢	$13	0x5cf2ed…
04-23 05:43:42	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xfca4d6…