Spotted-Retrospectivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$318

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.0%

Resolved

424

Trades

1,413

lifetime

Volume

$28.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 09-12 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Politics

79% 74% +$182

Other

20% 66% -$346

Tech

1% 71% -$162

Sports

0% 100% +$9

Crypto

0% 80% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	26	$2.0K	2,201	2,201	+0	Yes	-$168	06-12 08:22
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	17	$1.8K	1,645	1,645	+0	No	+$17	06-19 08:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$1.8K	1,278	1,278	+0	No	-$77	05-30 09:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	11	$1.3K	1,026	1,026	+0	Yes	-$192	06-20 14:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	14	$1.0K	584	584	+0	No	+$40	05-12 09:25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	22	$1.0K	2,592	2,592	+0	Yes	-$520	06-20 14:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	18	$978	758	758	+0	No	+$157	04-26 17:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?	13	$914	1,070	1,070	+0	No	+$14	06-15 16:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	7	$747	477	477	+0	No	+$127	05-26 04:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	11	$735	410	410	+0	No	+$68	04-22 16:55
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	10	$677	775	775	+0	Yes	+$66	06-17 14:53
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	12	$647	431	533	-102	No	+$99	06-28 17:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$629	594	594	+0	No	+$81	07-12 07:10
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	42	$605	328	328	+0	No	+$16	04-17 12:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$547	381	381	+0	No	+$202	04-22 07:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	10	$455	259	259	+0	No	-$4	04-24 17:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?	2	$429	255	255	+0	No	-$9	06-15 08:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	12	$400	495	260	+235	No	+$190	04-29 17:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	9	$396	228	228	+0	No	+$0	05-10 12:39
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	5	$380	444	0	+444	Yes	+$64	04-27 03:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$333	622	622	+0	No	+$3	06-22 08:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	17	$321	206	206	+0	No	+$26	04-21 03:20
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	5	$293	175	175	+0	Yes	+$33	05-01 19:24
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	11	$289	161	161	+0	No	+$28	03-21 16:08
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$231	206	206	+0	Yes	+$21	06-24 08:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	17	$223	130	130	+0	No	+$19	04-26 10:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	19	$216	125	125	+0	No	+$15	04-26 10:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	5	$216	117	117	+0	No	+$15	04-23 18:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	7	$212	127	127	+1	No	-$2	04-30 06:04
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	3	$204	115	115	+0	Yes	+$4	06-15 15:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-12 10:35:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x0f5643…
09-12 10:35:19	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	SELL	24	21¢	$5	0x69633b…
07-21 09:06:24	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	193	42¢	$81	0x1bb2e0…
07-21 08:16:09	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	79	42¢	$33	0x6d0975…
07-21 08:15:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	34	55¢	$19	0x366f51…
07-21 08:14:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x66053a…
07-21 08:14:46	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x36d761…
07-21 08:14:00	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	87	41¢	$36	0xa8935c…
07-21 08:13:18	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	SELL	105	1¢	$1	0x850b50…
07-14 11:08:50	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	231	2¢	$4	0x2d6010…
07-14 09:15:31	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$8	0x60d655…
07-13 19:32:14	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	299	2¢	$6	0x1126f8…
07-12 16:21:35	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,623	2¢	$40	0x9d9ede…
07-12 15:20:41	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,374	2¢	$31	0x5c244a…
07-12 14:24:19	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	756	2¢	$14	0xb50f9f…
07-12 10:41:31	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$1	0x0ab7e7…
07-12 07:51:05	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$1	0xc794f8…
07-12 07:49:37	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xdc851a…
07-12 07:17:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x8c3695…
07-12 07:17:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	85¢	$5	0xd22dcb…
07-12 07:16:44	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x520912…
07-12 07:16:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x0c3818…
07-12 07:15:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0xe22a92…
07-12 07:14:50	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	6	59¢	$3	0x6164dc…
07-12 07:14:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	3	81¢	$3	0xda0064…
07-12 07:11:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0xf16ec6…
07-12 07:11:25	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x8ed47f…
07-12 07:10:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0xa4a529…
07-12 07:09:52	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	77	2¢	$1	0x63d3b1…
07-11 18:59:37	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xecd946…
07-11 17:39:44	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	81	2¢	$2	0x4f16b6…
07-11 17:37:05	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	229	2¢	$4	0xd5804c…
07-11 09:45:59	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	491	2¢	$10	0x0457b6…
07-11 09:22:59	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x89c497…
07-11 09:22:41	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	BUY	436	2¢	$10	0x82f7af…
07-11 09:19:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x3cddd5…
07-11 09:19:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x3c52a4…
07-08 03:52:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xf62f69…
07-08 03:52:02	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	30¢	$7	0x3ee284…
07-06 09:50:26	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x01e99f…
07-06 09:49:52	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x6c51e4…
07-06 09:49:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x65f471…
07-06 09:46:58	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd3a540…
07-06 09:46:22	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc3c155…
07-06 09:44:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x9c4984…
07-06 09:41:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x2737db…
07-05 04:06:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$3	0x8338ed…
07-04 07:12:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x919ca2…
07-03 05:31:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa1aa62…
07-03 05:30:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xfe02a9…
07-03 05:29:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xba064e…
07-03 05:29:14	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x890f54…
07-03 05:24:35	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x1a08e4…
07-03 05:23:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x4e0410…
07-03 05:22:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x3f00f0…
06-29 18:02:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x726f79…
06-29 17:58:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xb0bee9…
06-28 17:38:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xbdf70b…
06-28 17:37:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x282cc2…
06-28 17:37:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x999833…
06-28 17:37:40	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0x8a771a…
06-26 19:28:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x62e2a5…
06-25 04:56:04	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbafa39…
06-25 04:54:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x857a1d…
06-25 04:41:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x7f4ddb…
06-25 04:40:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x078380…
06-24 08:37:11	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	206	61¢	$126	0x6d8dec…
06-23 19:04:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0xbb2930…
06-23 13:42:35	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	78	99¢	$78	0x29a7ee…
06-23 03:50:31	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0x93f4e5…
06-22 08:56:32	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xa86235…
06-22 08:56:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x7c44b2…
06-22 08:45:32	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x79418e…
06-22 08:45:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xe58792…
06-22 08:43:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6c4018…
06-22 08:29:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	303	0¢	$2	0x7910cd…
06-22 08:29:32	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	250	4¢	$10	0x4b19ac…
06-22 08:29:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	622	27¢	$168	0x89ea70…
06-21 04:16:02	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	SELL	300	3¢	$10	0xd0c80c…
06-20 14:25:22	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	244	35¢	$85	0x19afca…
06-20 14:21:04	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	46	35¢	$16	0x2cb2c4…
06-20 14:19:41	will jd vance have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xfb07a8…
06-20 14:08:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	575	4¢	$22	0xbe3008…
06-20 14:08:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	375	18¢	$67	0x438388…
06-20 05:17:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	198	25¢	$50	0x307416…
06-20 05:17:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	269	26¢	$70	0x5de39d…
06-20 05:15:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	198	25¢	$50	0xa9a14e…
06-20 05:15:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0x3acf19…
06-20 05:13:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	251	94¢	$236	0x50956c…
06-19 08:34:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x3702ca…
06-19 08:30:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	161	28¢	$45	0x003790…
06-19 08:30:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	179	53¢	$95	0xdbd8f9…
06-19 08:25:05	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x0773ef…
06-19 08:10:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x8c5815…
06-19 08:09:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	207	97¢	$202	0xfeb9e9…
06-19 01:54:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	207	82¢	$170	0xf79701…
06-19 01:48:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	135	37¢	$50	0xc2c685…
06-19 01:37:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	Yes	SELL	269	19¢	$51	0xe9d6d3…
06-19 01:36:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x693051…
06-18 19:14:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	Yes	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x4543c3…