Shady-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.54K

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

64.5%

Resolved

Trades

501

lifetime

Volume

$49.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-26 21:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

77% 60% $-2,645

Other

21% 100% +$109

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes		+132	$20	0¢	$0	$-20	06-01 15:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$3.8K	3,899	0	+3,899	Yes	+$109	05-01 13:06
Will Trump say "N Word" in April?	10	$3.1K	3,353	0	+3,353	open	—	04-03 22:10
will trump say n word in march	13	$2.9K	3,118	0	+3,118	open	—	03-10 11:08
us forces enter iran by march 1 768 899 597	1	$2.9K	2,936	0	+2,936	open	—	03-01 10:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.8K	2,912	0	+2,912	Yes	$-2,790	05-07 12:43
will trump say n word in february	3	$2.5K	2,612	0	+2,612	open	—	02-12 21:44
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	2	$2.3K	1,153	1,153	+0	open	—	03-09 23:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	6	$2.3K	1,145	1,145	+0	open	—	03-06 11:55
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	2	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	open	—	03-04 08:41
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$1.3K	671	671	+0	open	—	03-26 13:50
will iran strike pakistan in march	2	$1.2K	649	649	+0	open	—	03-16 21:31
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$1.1K	1,250	0	+1,250	No	+$100	05-05 22:46
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 14	5	$1.0K	648	648	+0	open	—	01-14 18:00
will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	2	$731	741	38	+703	open	—	03-27 10:51
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	11	$720	154,570	0	+154,570	open	—	02-03 21:05
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	1	$515	0	578	-578	open	—	01-21 02:47
will israel strike lebanon on february 4 2026	3	$483	336	336	+0	open	—	02-05 08:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$413	222	222	+0	open	—	05-17 19:00
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	1	$402	425	0	+425	open	—	04-08 15:18
foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	4	$371	208	208	+0	open	—	03-08 20:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	2	$370	224	224	+0	open	—	06-20 21:06
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$347	230	230	+0	open	—	05-24 15:13
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	2	$310	165	165	+0	open	—	01-13 22:26
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$300	365	0	+365	open	—	06-19 00:15
will the rsf capture el obeid by january 31	2	$280	208	85	+123	open	—	01-23 01:26
will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	2	$250	278	0	+278	open	—	04-06 00:12
us bank failure by january 31	2	$234	125	125	+0	open	—	01-09 11:44
foreign intervention in gaza by april 30	3	$232	159	159	+0	open	—	03-16 21:50
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$231	143	143	+0	open	—	01-10 09:07
us x russia nuclear deal by february 4	2	$222	137	137	+0	open	—	01-11 21:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 21:26:29	will leavitt say border during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953947 584	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x4ada2e…
06-26 21:25:29	will leavitt say hormuz or strait during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953944 687	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x7a0f17…
06-26 21:21:56	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953935 615	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x85e5ba…
06-26 21:20:01	will leavitt say iran 5 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953932 554	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x6b46e9…
06-20 21:06:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	224	98¢	$220	0x83774b…
06-20 20:34:44	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0x057eaf…
06-20 20:33:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	98	11¢	$11	0x87f3ad…
06-20 19:38:41	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	BUY	34	82¢	$28	0xb3fc08…
06-20 18:30:25	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xc4b40e…
06-20 15:07:31	will trump say barack hussein obama during june 24 rally 20260616194255610	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x1fc698…
06-20 14:44:52	will trump post uranium on truth social this week 20260612152704360	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x84e7d3…
06-20 13:41:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	204	24¢	$49	0x5bcbf6…
06-20 13:40:41	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	39	92¢	$36	0x56fd62…
06-20 13:40:31	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	Yes	SELL	132	6¢	$8	0x64f008…
06-20 13:40:04	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	Yes	SELL	92	7¢	$6	0x667342…
06-19 00:15:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	365	82¢	$300	0xd9dd00…
06-19 00:05:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	82¢	$51	0x2c4fe9…
06-19 00:04:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xee246a…
06-15 18:41:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xefb301…
06-14 09:57:19	will trump say warrior this week 20260605142537478	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x12a5eb…
06-14 09:00:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	162	37¢	$60	0x3b5fc0…
06-04 12:34:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	224	67¢	$150	0x7557b9…
06-04 12:32:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xcdae02…
06-04 11:54:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x8317d5…
06-01 15:43:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	132	15¢	$20	0xe18024…
06-01 14:57:11	Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	No	SELL	190	85¢	$161	0xa818e0…
05-29 00:29:50	Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xd581c4…
05-26 12:03:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x84c491…
05-26 11:47:24	Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	No	BUY	190	26¢	$50	0x955742…
05-26 11:42:54	Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x3e718f…
05-26 11:36:26	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week?	No	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0xa36a62…
05-24 15:13:52	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	230	64¢	$147	0xf49f3d…
05-24 15:11:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	152	86¢	$130	0x3d891b…
05-23 13:56:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x30af18…
05-23 12:43:07	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	BUY	161	75¢	$120	0x592dd4…
05-22 11:55:16	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	No	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x2d8fb9…
05-21 23:56:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x402ecf…
05-20 08:43:45	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	112	31¢	$35	0xdece97…
05-18 22:31:45	Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x844b07…
05-18 22:29:32	Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x348cd5…
05-17 19:00:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	222	96¢	$213	0x0461a6…
05-14 20:38:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x631fa1…
05-14 01:03:06	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x1eb4d7…
05-10 23:29:24	Will Trump post "Ass" or "Shit" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1f2481…
05-10 00:19:09	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	Yes	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0xc8cead…
05-10 00:01:21	Will Trump say "Favorite Chart" in May?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x07f766…
05-09 23:24:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x129322…
05-07 12:43:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,912	96¢	$2,790	0x6c2634…
05-06 13:35:48	Will Trump say "Autopen" this week?	No	BUY	51	61¢	$31	0xa50ac8…
05-05 23:40:08	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0xef9cfa…
05-05 22:46:50	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	1,250	92¢	$1,150	0x927c38…
05-01 13:06:04	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3,899	97¢	$3,790	0x340e3e…
05-01 12:37:40	Will Trump say "Percent" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	131	84¢	$110	0x2d0c7b…
05-01 12:04:36	Will Trump post "POTUS" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	101	80¢	$81	0xd7a474…
04-21 23:23:50	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	75	85¢	$64	0x50e162…
04-20 09:54:16	Will Trump post "AG" or "Attorney General" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x529612…
04-20 09:49:02	Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x70545e…
04-18 10:29:22	will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	No	BUY	163	45¢	$73	0xc8bb7d…
04-18 02:04:52	will 70 79 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 178	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xcea8fa…
04-17 01:31:30	will trump say venezuela during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x5e4e60…
04-17 01:29:32	will trump say kamala during tpusa events on april 17	No	BUY	47	55¢	$26	0x89f149…
04-17 01:24:02	will trump say charlie or kirk 5 times during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	39	67¢	$26	0x19d709…
04-17 00:49:20	will trump post ufc this week on truth social	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xcaaa3f…
04-17 00:49:16	will trump post ufc this week on truth social	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x534dd9…
04-14 13:15:11	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	No	BUY	1,464	2¢	$24	0x2b081c…
04-14 13:14:37	Nothing Ever Happens: March	Nothing	SELL	38	62¢	$24	0x1fb14a…
04-14 12:13:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	82	78¢	$64	0xf1f601…
04-13 21:29:51	will trump post ufc this week on truth social	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xdb5b19…
04-13 21:29:45	will trump post ufc this week on truth social	No	BUY	28	73¢	$20	0x9360af…
04-13 12:59:47	will trump say aoc this week april 19	Yes	BUY	13	54¢	$7	0xb1af99…
04-13 12:38:37	will trump say ass this week april 19	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xe1f1e1…
04-13 12:34:39	will trump say gulf of america this week april 19	No	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0x3e0da1…
04-12 19:16:47	will trump say barack hussein obama this week april 19	Yes	BUY	116	79¢	$92	0x71d13e…
04-12 19:11:57	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	277	33¢	$92	0x6d1779…
04-12 18:42:17	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	No	BUY	172	62¢	$108	0x431fb9…
04-12 10:43:35	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	150	47¢	$70	0x1389ec…
04-12 00:18:01	Will Trump name "Hillary" in April?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x1c3031…
04-12 00:07:27	will trump say two weeks this week april 12	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x7988a8…
04-11 00:57:45	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	177	42¢	$75	0xb1568b…
04-11 00:07:07	Will Trump name "Schumer" in April?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x419df3…
04-10 08:49:37	Will Trump say "Dead by June" in April?	No	BUY	66	90¢	$59	0xf3baa9…
04-09 23:59:19	Will Trump name "Schumer" in April?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x092b65…
04-09 23:59:15	Will Trump name "Schumer" in April?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xcdfa9b…
04-09 23:46:27	Will Trump say "Dead by June" in April?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xf1d951…
04-09 23:46:17	Will Trump say "Dead by June" in April?	No	BUY	26	90¢	$23	0xec8ac2…
04-08 15:18:17	Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	Yes	BUY	425	94¢	$402	0xb61214…
04-07 23:54:19	will trump say king charles this week april 12	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xa1e6aa…
04-07 23:47:25	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0x0da2d1…
04-07 23:34:55	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	No	BUY	38	75¢	$29	0x7548f1…
04-07 23:22:59	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	Yes	SELL	111	12¢	$13	0x6faf48…
04-07 20:56:15	will jd vance say eu or european union during meetings with orbn	Yes	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0x66f140…
04-07 20:51:19	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	111	41¢	$45	0x532661…
04-07 20:42:55	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	171	44¢	$75	0x072e69…
04-07 01:22:07	Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x754083…
04-06 20:24:09	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	106	33¢	$35	0x39eab2…
04-06 00:12:19	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	167	90¢	$150	0xa6191f…
04-04 21:15:33	Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?	No	BUY	169	71¢	$120	0x57ecef…
04-04 20:57:35	will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xe392b8…
04-04 09:20:05	will trump post barack hussein obama on truth social this week	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x4671f9…
04-04 09:16:47	will trump post terrorist on truth social this week 579	No	SELL	393	0¢	$1	0x12ce1a…