Shady-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.54K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.5%

Resolved

Trades

550

lifetime

Volume

$51.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 23:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

77% 60% $-2,645

Other

21% 100% +$109

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$3.8K	3,899	0	+3,899	Yes	+$109	05-01 13:06
Will Trump say "N Word" in April?	10	$3.1K	3,353	0	+3,353	open	—	04-03 22:10
will trump say n word in march	13	$2.9K	3,118	0	+3,118	open	—	03-10 11:08
us forces enter iran by march 1 768 899 597	1	$2.9K	2,936	0	+2,936	open	—	03-01 10:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.8K	2,912	0	+2,912	Yes	$-2,790	05-07 12:43
will trump say n word in february	3	$2.5K	2,612	0	+2,612	open	—	02-12 21:44
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	2	$2.3K	1,153	1,153	+0	open	—	03-09 23:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	6	$2.3K	1,145	1,145	+0	open	—	03-06 11:55
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	2	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	open	—	03-04 08:41
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$1.3K	671	671	+0	open	—	03-26 13:50
will iran strike pakistan in march	2	$1.2K	649	649	+0	open	—	03-16 21:31
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$1.1K	1,250	0	+1,250	No	+$100	05-05 22:46
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 14	5	$1.0K	648	648	+0	open	—	01-14 18:00
will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	2	$731	741	38	+703	open	—	03-27 10:51
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	11	$720	154,570	0	+154,570	open	—	02-03 21:05
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	1	$515	0	578	-578	open	—	01-21 02:47
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	3	$511	305	305	+0	open	—	07-31 16:14
will israel strike lebanon on february 4 2026	3	$483	336	336	+0	open	—	02-05 08:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$413	222	222	+0	open	—	05-17 19:00
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	1	$402	425	0	+425	open	—	04-08 15:18
foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	4	$371	208	208	+0	open	—	03-08 20:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	2	$370	224	224	+0	open	—	06-20 21:06
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$347	230	230	+0	open	—	05-24 15:13
will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	10	$346	473	473	+0	open	—	07-27 08:29
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	2	$310	165	165	+0	open	—	01-13 22:26
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	3	$309	469	0	+469	open	—	07-31 16:15
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$300	365	0	+365	open	—	06-19 00:15
will the rsf capture el obeid by january 31	2	$280	208	85	+123	open	—	01-23 01:26
will trump say hamas or hezbollah this week april 5	2	$250	278	0	+278	open	—	04-06 00:12
us bank failure by january 31	2	$234	125	125	+0	open	—	01-09 11:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 00:42:46	will trump say ass in august 20260728220215904	Yes	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x63e492…
08-11 23:58:01	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	No	BUY	94	64¢	$60	0x753fc9…
08-11 23:14:16	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x2b57a6…
08-10 23:59:57	will trump say transgender this week 20260807162716106	No	BUY	107	14¢	$15	0x324579…
08-04 23:38:56	will leavitt say ceasefire during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550012	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x0d40f0…
08-04 23:34:48	will leavitt say administration 10 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420403	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x1c3024…
08-04 22:52:26	will disney say toy story 5 during earnings call 20260803163137849 527	Yes	BUY	61	83¢	$51	0x56452b…
08-04 22:36:47	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x14143f…
08-04 22:36:15	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	Yes	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xdbd302…
08-04 22:36:14	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x9e711a…
08-04 22:36:14	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	Yes	BUY	71	67¢	$48	0x91be00…
08-04 22:36:14	will uber say nvidia during earnings call 20260803163025073	Yes	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x21ed41…
08-01 22:02:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	127	24¢	$30	0x17f294…
07-31 16:15:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	311	64¢	$200	0x27fcda…
07-31 16:14:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	305	99¢	$301	0x15b404…
07-31 16:13:38	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	75	65¢	$49	0x382d38…
07-31 15:17:26	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	596	8¢	$50	0x2b3ece…
07-31 14:15:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0xc1db54…
07-31 10:07:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	82	73¢	$60	0x5c3edf…
07-29 23:35:53	will trump say biden or obama 10 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357438	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x912f74…
07-29 23:17:59	will trump say russia during cabinet meeting 20260727172357450	Yes	BUY	324	68¢	$220	0x81c56b…
07-28 11:28:40	will trump say iran 3 times during fox friends appearance 20260728022316500	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0xf3257a…
07-28 11:00:08	will trump say democrat during fox friends appearance 20260728022316508	Yes	BUY	177	85¢	$150	0x85b2a8…
07-28 10:54:40	will trump say transgender during fox friends appearance 20260728022316512	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x1f5901…
07-28 10:52:13	will trump say biden or obama 4 times during fox friends appearance 20260728022316499	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x8994b3…
07-27 08:29:28	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	SELL	473	23¢	$108	0xf30655…
07-27 00:48:21	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	73	30¢	$22	0xb8d3ff…
07-27 00:48:19	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	27	33¢	$9	0xcbb43e…
07-27 00:46:27	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	32	33¢	$11	0x76d3cb…
07-27 00:44:22	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xa6f88a…
07-27 00:44:22	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xa1d701…
07-27 00:44:22	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	29	33¢	$10	0x793a15…
07-27 00:44:21	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x8873de…
07-27 00:37:40	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	70	33¢	$23	0xee2020…
07-26 16:01:37	will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	Yes	BUY	201	75¢	$150	0x5be92a…
07-26 12:58:28	will trump say barack hussein obama this week 20260724154805108	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x6b15b9…
07-26 12:51:07	will trump say uranium this week 20260724154805095	No	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xb7e990…
07-24 11:01:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x02b5c8…
07-23 11:34:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	225	71¢	$160	0x9a5ab0…
07-18 12:29:57	will trump say uranium in july 20260629200910954	No	BUY	33	77¢	$25	0x209fd7…
07-15 19:47:02	iran successfully targets shipping on july 15	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xd16212…
07-14 11:05:55	will trump say nuclear 15 times during speech to the nation 20260713200621421	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x7b3a93…
07-14 10:52:41	will trump say venezuela during speech to the nation 20260713200621424	No	BUY	122	49¢	$60	0x05a257…
07-14 10:49:10	will trump say space force at defense and innovation summit 20260713185716013	Yes	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x978966…
07-14 10:47:25	will trump say iran 3 times at defense and innovation summit 20260713185716010	Yes	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x2dc9dd…
07-08 08:34:19	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	BUY	149	5¢	$7	0x6c7966…
07-07 23:32:19	will trump say soaking wet in july 20260629200910956	No	BUY	70	31¢	$22	0x2e6a10…
07-07 18:44:49	will trump say pathetic in july 20260629200910952	No	BUY	244	9¢	$22	0x4150f4…
07-07 18:40:11	will trump say uranium in july 20260629200910954	No	BUY	62	50¢	$31	0xfdecba…
07-07 18:35:07	will trump say cat in july 20260702143051764	No	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0xc76def…
07-07 18:22:13	will trump say outside this week 20260626175002241	Yes	BUY	396	5¢	$20	0x934c59…
07-06 17:09:52	will trump say outside this week 20260626175002241	Yes	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0x58e187…
06-26 21:26:29	will leavitt say border during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953947 584	Yes	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x4ada2e…
06-26 21:25:29	will leavitt say hormuz or strait during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953944 687	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x7a0f17…
06-26 21:21:56	will leavitt say russia or ukraine during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953935 615	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x85e5ba…
06-26 21:20:01	will leavitt say iran 5 times during the next white house press briefing 20260625192953932 554	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x6b46e9…
06-20 21:06:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	224	98¢	$220	0x83774b…
06-20 20:34:44	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0x057eaf…
06-20 20:33:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	98	11¢	$11	0x87f3ad…
06-20 19:38:41	will starmer say mrpt speaker 20 times during the next pmq 20260610160650629	Yes	BUY	34	82¢	$28	0xb3fc08…
06-20 18:30:25	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xc4b40e…
06-20 15:07:31	will trump say barack hussein obama during june 24 rally 20260616194255610	Yes	BUY	25	60¢	$15	0x1fc698…
06-20 14:44:52	will trump post uranium on truth social this week 20260612152704360	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x84e7d3…
06-20 13:41:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	204	24¢	$49	0x5bcbf6…
06-20 13:40:41	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	39	92¢	$36	0x56fd62…
06-20 13:40:31	will mohamed bin zayed al nahyan sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950078	Yes	SELL	132	6¢	$8	0x64f008…
06-20 13:40:04	will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	Yes	SELL	92	7¢	$6	0x667342…
06-19 00:15:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	365	82¢	$300	0xd9dd00…
06-19 00:05:43	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	82¢	$51	0x2c4fe9…
06-19 00:04:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xee246a…
06-15 18:41:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xefb301…
06-14 09:57:19	will trump say warrior this week 20260605142537478	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x12a5eb…
06-14 09:00:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	162	37¢	$60	0x3b5fc0…
06-04 12:34:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	224	67¢	$150	0x7557b9…
06-04 12:32:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xcdae02…
06-04 11:54:07	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	51¢	$32	0x8317d5…
06-01 15:43:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	132	15¢	$20	0xe18024…
06-01 14:57:11	Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	No	SELL	190	85¢	$161	0xa818e0…
05-29 00:29:50	Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xd581c4…
05-26 12:03:26	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x84c491…
05-26 11:47:24	Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?	No	BUY	190	26¢	$50	0x955742…
05-26 11:42:54	Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x3e718f…
05-26 11:36:26	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week?	No	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0xa36a62…
05-24 15:13:52	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	230	64¢	$147	0xf49f3d…
05-24 15:11:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	152	86¢	$130	0x3d891b…
05-23 13:56:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0x30af18…
05-23 12:43:07	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	BUY	161	75¢	$120	0x592dd4…
05-22 11:55:16	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	No	BUY	103	68¢	$70	0x2d8fb9…
05-21 23:56:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x402ecf…
05-20 08:43:45	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	112	31¢	$35	0xdece97…
05-18 22:31:45	Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x844b07…
05-18 22:29:32	Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0x348cd5…
05-17 19:00:10	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	222	96¢	$213	0x0461a6…
05-14 20:38:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x631fa1…
05-14 01:03:06	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x1eb4d7…
05-10 23:29:24	Will Trump post "Ass" or "Shit" on Truth Social this week?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x1f2481…
05-10 00:19:09	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week?	Yes	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0xc8cead…
05-10 00:01:21	Will Trump say "Favorite Chart" in May?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x07f766…
05-09 23:24:27	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x129322…
05-07 12:43:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,912	96¢	$2,790	0x6c2634…