Shady-Hardcover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.89K

Unrealized P&L

+$623

Hit rate

74.4%

Resolved

502

Trades

754

lifetime

Volume

$59.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$1.22K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 11:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Politics

71% 53% -$2,544

Other

27% 42% -$1,228

Crypto

1% 75% +$18

Tech

0% 20% -$144

Sports

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+711	$65	92¢	$658	+$593	07-31 15:17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+192	$150	92¢	$178	+$28	10-23 09:33
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+185	$150	81¢	$150	+$0	10-13 09:19
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	+139	$100	88¢	$122	+$22	10-21 21:47
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+161	$100	66¢	$106	+$6	10-12 23:18
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+34	$15	22¢	$7	-$8	10-13 23:44
israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	+143	$20	1¢	$2	-$18	10-01 12:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$3.8K	3,899	0	+3,899	Yes	+$109	05-01 13:06
Will Trump say "N Word" in April?	10	$3.1K	3,353	0	+3,353	No	+$292	04-03 22:10
will trump say n word in march	13	$2.9K	3,118	0	+3,118	No	+$225	03-10 11:08
us forces enter iran by march 1 768 899 597	1	$2.9K	2,936	0	+2,936	No	+$52	03-01 10:54
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.8K	2,912	0	+2,912	Yes	-$2,790	05-07 12:43
will trump say n word in february	3	$2.5K	2,612	0	+2,612	No	+$127	02-12 21:44
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	2	$2.3K	1,153	1,153	+0	Yes	+$17	03-09 23:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	6	$2.3K	1,145	1,145	+0	Yes	+$19	03-06 11:55
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	2	$2.0K	1,042	1,042	+0	Yes	+$41	03-04 08:41
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$1.3K	671	671	+0	No	+$41	03-26 13:50
will iran strike pakistan in march	2	$1.2K	649	649	+0	No	+$15	03-16 21:31
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$1.1K	1,250	0	+1,250	No	+$100	05-05 22:46
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 14	5	$1.0K	648	648	+0	No	+$254	01-14 18:00
will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by iran by march 31	2	$731	741	38	+703	Yes	+$43	03-27 10:51
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	11	$720	154,570	0	+154,570	Yes	-$720	02-03 21:05
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	1	$515	0	578	-578	No	-$64	01-21 02:47
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	3	$511	305	305	+0	No	+$91	07-31 16:14
will israel strike lebanon on february 4 2026	3	$483	336	336	+0	No	+$173	02-05 08:10
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$464	659	659	+0	Yes	-$56	09-08 05:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$413	222	222	+0	No	+$13	05-17 19:00
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	1	$402	425	0	+425	Yes	+$24	04-08 15:18
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$397	252	252	+0	Yes	+$97	07-13 06:18
foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	4	$371	208	208	+0	No	+$22	03-08 20:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	2	$370	224	224	+0	Yes	+$70	06-20 21:06
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	2	$347	230	230	+0	No	-$53	05-24 15:13
will paypal say regulation or regulator or regulatory during earnings call 20260724221739520	10	$346	473	473	+0	No	-$130	07-27 08:29
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	2	$321	372	372	+0	Yes	+$222	08-12 12:29
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	1	$315	362	0	+362	No	+$47	09-30 08:58
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	2	$310	165	165	+0	No	$0	01-13 22:26
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	3	$309	469	0	+469	No	-$309	07-31 16:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 11:44:44	Will Warsh say "President" or "Trump" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x95d649…
10-26 11:43:14	Will Warsh say "Conflict" or "Middle East" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe76dcf…
10-26 11:42:47	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xb85700…
10-26 11:27:15	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x723b42…
10-23 09:33:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	192	78¢	$150	0x9943d3…
10-23 09:25:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xebdbdf…
10-21 21:47:02	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x2b4f35…
10-21 21:31:05	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	151	24¢	$36	0x796d42…
10-21 21:29:56	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x643211…
10-21 08:54:41	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x61eb17…
10-20 21:48:35	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x34ac49…
10-20 12:36:33	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0xb96d4f…
10-20 11:57:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x90ec86…
10-16 01:23:16	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	Yes	BUY	68	44¢	$30	0xaf5f74…
10-16 01:20:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	5¢	$4	0xcec4ce…
10-15 08:25:11	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in georgia october 16	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xe25806…
10-15 08:24:14	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xfa70a5…
10-14 21:10:22	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x170ba9…
10-14 08:47:46	Will Trump say "Waitress" this week?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xf84fbd…
10-14 08:20:10	will trump say iran during his midterm rally in arizona october 14	Yes	BUY	62	65¢	$40	0xf53d30…
10-14 00:33:49	will trump say iran during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0xf31371…
10-14 00:28:18	will trump say russia during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x591619…
10-14 00:23:40	will trump say california during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	No	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0x4e9ede…
10-14 00:06:04	will trump say joe during his midterm rally in alaska october 13	Yes	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0x92cfb9…
10-13 23:44:04	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0xf69030…
10-13 09:32:29	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xabbc98…
10-13 09:19:04	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0x38c181…
10-12 23:18:38	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xe6573b…
10-12 23:10:41	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x2a4f4f…
10-12 18:44:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	57¢	$22	0xaf92cc…
10-11 21:33:22	Will Trump say "Columbus" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	101	20¢	$20	0x9374c5…
10-11 21:04:35	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xbe545c…
10-11 20:47:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xa89101…
10-11 20:47:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0xa03a21…
10-09 01:13:39	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x38c664…
10-09 01:10:09	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Emmanuel Macron by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0ac2b4…
10-09 01:07:02	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Karoline Leavitt by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	52¢	$20	0xbfe06b…
10-09 00:56:00	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5fb386…
10-09 00:50:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	9¢	$15	0x48f3af…
10-09 00:50:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	17¢	$25	0xd1dd39…
10-09 00:49:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	1¢	$2	0x7db2df…
10-07 20:15:29	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	104	77¢	$80	0x96b8a5…
10-07 19:37:24	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x7c6e4a…
10-07 19:28:22	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x23bd78…
10-06 11:43:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0x71ae3d…
10-05 08:15:56	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x11425b…
10-04 13:26:23	Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	Yes	BUY	54	47¢	$25	0x7efc66…
10-01 12:51:42	israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0xa23386…
09-30 09:06:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	28¢	$8	0x11a2e9…
09-30 08:58:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	362	87¢	$315	0xc7e273…
09-30 08:51:00	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x34de33…
09-30 08:47:02	eritrea invades ethiopia by october 31	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x446614…
09-30 08:34:15	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	94¢	$106	0x60bfbb…
09-27 23:28:02	will fuck or fucking be said 10 times during the first joe rogan experience of the week of september 28	No	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0xa9af4b…
09-26 11:58:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x77c71c…
09-26 11:28:14	Will Trump say "Dark Age" this week?	Yes	BUY	28	60¢	$17	0x81f9f3…
09-26 11:27:32	Will Trump say "Moon" or "Space" this week?	No	BUY	60	60¢	$36	0x5646d5…
09-26 01:19:08	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x892241…
09-23 23:09:01	Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x79696c…
09-23 22:39:08	Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	35¢	$40	0xcd5ef6…
09-19 09:37:07	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	92	38¢	$35	0x2042e9…
09-18 10:33:16	Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?	No	BUY	85	71¢	$60	0xea57a7…
09-11 04:42:58	Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfing" or "Golfer" this week?	Yes	BUY	49	85¢	$42	0xd71e41…
09-10 04:44:48	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	603	8¢	$50	0xbd3798…
09-08 06:17:12	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	176	28¢	$50	0x412ab0…
09-08 06:02:03	Will Trump say "Never Forget" during remarks at Steel Across America?	Yes	BUY	71	85¢	$60	0xf974f9…
09-08 05:43:36	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	659	31¢	$204	0xf5de45…
09-04 05:49:07	will andy burnham say london during the next pmq 20260909	Yes	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xb619a7…
09-04 05:48:06	will andy burnham say million 5 times during the next pmq 20260909	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x9c1562…
09-03 05:10:21	Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" this week?	Yes	SELL	66	41¢	$27	0x05ef04…
08-28 00:26:25	will trump say 11888 this week 20260906	Yes	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0xb7fdea…
08-28 00:14:46	will trump say karoline leavitt this week 20260906	Yes	BUY	66	45¢	$30	0x4391d9…
08-28 00:01:04	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in september 2026 20260826	Yes	BUY	154	78¢	$120	0xf569e9…
08-25 23:39:01	will iran target an arab country by august 31 2026 copy	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x7fe22b…
08-25 23:38:30	will iran target an arab country by august 31 2026 copy	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0x264b19…
08-25 23:37:51	will iran target an arab country by august 31 2026 copy	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x881072…
08-24 00:58:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x2f4f84…
08-24 00:51:58	Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0xc876e0…
08-23 13:16:36	Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" this week?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xd09c67…
08-23 13:15:10	Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week?	Yes	BUY	112	71¢	$80	0x36e0de…
08-21 12:40:43	Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x3e85c9…
08-21 10:37:55	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	199	13¢	$25	0xdaf5dc…
08-21 10:36:24	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x44d5b6…
08-20 20:25:04	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	49	62¢	$30	0x802ef4…
08-20 01:02:09	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 22 2026 20260724221849653	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xdb84b7…
08-19 13:33:13	will warsh say 2008 or financial crisis during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x410af9…
08-19 13:32:16	will warsh say capex or capital expenditure during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x13e164…
08-19 13:24:48	will warsh say good day during jackson hole speech on august 28	No	BUY	45	66¢	$30	0x53a149…
08-19 13:24:27	will warsh say good day during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	SELL	83	34¢	$28	0xbdab96…
08-19 13:23:58	will warsh say good day during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0x255c36…
08-19 13:23:27	will warsh say ai or artificial intelligence 3 times during jackson hole speech on august 28	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xd0fa55…
08-18 22:15:58	will russia target kyiv on august 26 2026 20260810162903061	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3c9064…
08-18 22:15:25	will russia target kyiv on august 21 2026 20260810162903056	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdd3cbe…
08-18 22:15:01	will russia target kyiv on august 20 2026 20260810162903055	Yes	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xbacb29…
08-18 22:13:52	will iran target a arab country on august 27 2026 20260801004719144	Yes	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x1bb07a…
08-18 22:13:19	will iran target a arab country on august 28 2026 20260801004719145	Yes	BUY	69	15¢	$10	0xdf8eef…
08-18 22:12:48	will iran target a arab country on august 25 2026 20260801004719142	Yes	BUY	87	12¢	$10	0x1892c0…
08-18 22:10:28	will iran target a arab country on august 21 2026 20260801004719138	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xa1b2a5…
08-17 21:30:51	will trump say gaza in august 20260728181450066	No	BUY	73	27¢	$20	0x92550e…
08-17 20:56:25	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	No	BUY	63	56¢	$35	0xf771c1…