Watery-Passenger — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$311

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

61.4%

Resolved

297

Trades

879

lifetime

Volume

$12.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$135

6 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 10-29 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Other

43% 47% -$73

Sports

37% 41% +$294

Politics

13% 37% +$3

Crypto

6% 46% +$99

Tech

2% 0% -$8

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	+40	$28	76¢	$30	+$2	10-29 16:49
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	+45	$32	66¢	$30	-$2	10-29 17:07
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+45	$29	66¢	$29	+$0	10-29 17:08
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+26	$20	74¢	$19	-$1	10-29 16:58
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+58	$15	28¢	$16	+$1	10-16 19:08
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	+48	$10	22¢	$10	+$0	10-27 19:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	26	$406	361	361	+0	No	+$14	06-04 23:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	20	$346	294	294	+0	No	+$65	05-12 03:10
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	19	$332	408	408	+0	No	+$8	05-29 03:43
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$258	342	342	+0	Yes	+$89	06-09 14:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	7	$200	172	172	+0	Yes	-$20	06-13 18:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	8	$190	161	161	+0	Yes	-$17	05-21 15:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$189	172	172	+0	No	-$11	06-13 18:35
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	10	$187	119	119	+0	Yes	+$21	05-19 20:43
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	3	$184	135	135	+0	Knicks	+$84	06-14 03:31
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	9	$180	161	161	+0	No	+$36	05-15 17:36
mlb nyy tor 2026 06 13	2	$174	115	115	+0	New York Yankees	+$54	06-13 21:47
mlb kc wsh 2026 06 16	4	$171	102	102	+0	Washington Nationals	+$33	06-17 01:32
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$169	110	110	+0	Yes	+$19	06-26 22:46
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	7	$153	147	147	+0	open	—	05-07 08:32
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	11	$151	97	97	+0	No	+$10	06-06 20:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	8	$126	99	99	+0	No	+$11	05-13 07:37
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$118	97	97	+0	No	-$8	06-27 03:27
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$114	72	72	+0	Yes	+$8	06-22 19:07
ufc ste6 die4 2026 06 14	3	$112	85	85	+0	Diego Lopes	+$12	06-15 01:09
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$111	103	103	+0	Yes	-$1	06-05 06:14
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	4	$107	77	77	+0	Yes	+$31	06-19 03:00
mlb lad pit 2026 06 11	3	$106	65	65	+0	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$8	06-12 01:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$105	109	109	+0	Yes	-$5	08-08 00:32
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	5	$105	70	70	+0	Yes	+$35	05-06 21:34
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	2	$104	65	65	+0	Yes	+$24	06-14 03:04
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	6	$104	62	62	+0	No	+$4	07-21 18:37
atp perrica moutet 2026 06 15	3	$102	114	114	+0	Corentin Moutet	-$18	06-16 13:52
bitcoin above 64k on july 30 2026	4	$101	83	83	+0	Yes	+$41	07-30 14:00
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	4	$100	108	108	+0	No	+$50	05-15 18:45
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	2	$93	74	74	+0	Yes	+$53	06-14 00:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:08:26	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	65¢	$29	0x2cb1ab…
10-29 17:07:43	Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	71¢	$32	0x188c32…
10-29 16:58:53	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xda9000…
10-29 16:55:19	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	14¢	$7	0x7703d3…
10-29 16:55:11	Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$1	0xac108d…
10-29 16:49:07	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xd42c43…
10-29 01:58:58	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	11¢	$7	0x041197…
10-27 22:36:27	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0xc3977f…
10-27 22:31:05	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x9bd80f…
10-27 19:04:17	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xfe73a5…
10-27 17:57:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0xeb022d…
10-24 22:51:12	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xb584de…
10-24 22:50:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	82¢	$24	0x58cd3a…
10-24 22:50:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0xbc5a73…
10-23 06:25:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	84¢	$33	0x534215…
10-23 06:25:03	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	29	29¢	$8	0xf94e8d…
10-23 06:21:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x6fbd24…
10-23 06:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x351a71…
10-23 06:18:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 23?	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x2f906b…
10-23 06:01:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	40¢	$24	0x5b3d6c…
10-23 06:00:26	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x040686…
10-23 05:52:38	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0xe767c8…
10-23 05:52:17	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x4e1bb8…
10-21 20:30:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	16	74¢	$12	0x8d2aa5…
10-21 18:42:33	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xa58d8d…
10-21 18:39:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0x65a654…
10-21 18:21:26	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x595037…
10-16 19:12:55	Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	4¢	$3	0xf3645f…
10-16 19:11:50	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x10ca26…
10-16 19:08:58	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x57e4c3…
10-16 18:51:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0x9dad2c…
10-15 19:26:31	Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x4d3289…
10-15 18:45:32	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x215bfb…
10-15 18:33:08	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	SELL	52	23¢	$12	0x2ed9a5…
10-15 18:29:44	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	79¢	$23	0xbb429a…
10-15 18:28:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	93¢	$24	0xe4b979…
10-13 19:11:06	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x93bd81…
10-13 18:07:04	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	52	23¢	$12	0x26f49a…
10-10 00:20:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	72¢	$28	0x70886d…
10-09 22:56:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x41c957…
10-09 22:54:52	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0x97e4f8…
10-09 22:18:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	82¢	$27	0x13350c…
10-09 18:48:43	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0xcb561e…
10-09 18:48:14	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	61	13¢	$8	0xe6839a…
10-09 18:29:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	41¢	$12	0x0cff1e…
10-09 18:20:56	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	267	8¢	$21	0x142b2e…
10-06 18:56:56	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	32¢	$12	0xc55430…
10-06 18:56:18	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	36	86¢	$31	0x2f323e…
10-06 18:55:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x3912f2…
10-03 07:09:47	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xb4ae91…
10-02 18:58:23	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x27b028…
10-02 18:57:54	Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0xdc9a7f…
10-01 20:09:56	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	41	42¢	$17	0x0945b5…
10-01 20:04:57	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	SELL	51	16¢	$8	0xe982f5…
10-01 19:58:59	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	43	67¢	$29	0x9a7ebb…
09-17 23:26:42	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	392	4¢	$16	0xd65bd4…
08-30 18:32:13	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	19¢	$21	0x4e61ef…
08-25 06:10:52	Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	267	7¢	$20	0x7adb6f…
08-24 03:11:28	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	SELL	9	52¢	$5	0xc14238…
08-24 02:04:10	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x643a58…
08-23 22:44:12	Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-08-23?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8ca27a…
08-22 21:24:51	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xdc5aa1…
08-22 19:52:09	nfl bal min 2026 08 22	Ravens	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xc66ea0…
08-22 18:24:10	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xe3e463…
08-22 17:28:39	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x6f1af5…
08-22 04:50:42	nfl bal min 2026 08 22	Ravens	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xae1660…
08-22 04:46:04	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0xe99999…
08-22 04:43:39	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x2aed27…
08-19 17:38:03	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	SELL	46	89¢	$41	0x736e2b…
08-19 17:33:54	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x86d146…
08-18 05:50:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 05:50 UTC	Down	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0xd3e1be…
08-18 05:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xfefcc9…
08-16 17:14:40	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	SELL	24	40¢	$10	0x77d6dd…
08-16 17:13:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4488a5…
08-16 17:12:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	56	36¢	$20	0x405276…
08-16 16:29:48	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xdb7144…
08-14 01:52:49	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	23¢	$16	0xddc72b…
08-12 02:51:30	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	4¢	$4	0xdc8969…
08-10 01:16:36	Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x663319…
08-09 21:49:37	Will CDOriente Petrolero win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe3a39a…
08-08 00:32:43	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	62	36¢	$22	0x0c8707…
08-07 02:43:34	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	175	8¢	$14	0x6585e2…
08-07 00:52:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0x193f68…
08-07 00:51:48	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	17	57¢	$10	0x290101…
08-05 05:44:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	49¢	$22	0x4ef7b8…
08-04 03:06:05	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x44fc5a…
08-04 03:03:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	39	41¢	$16	0xf07ec4…
08-02 21:41:18	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	16	49¢	$8	0xb0a693…
08-02 21:35:56	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x61b74c…
08-02 20:39:24	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x696dbd…
08-02 20:28:20	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	SELL	91	31¢	$28	0x6391aa…
08-01 19:17:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	59¢	$28	0xd7dea5…
08-01 19:16:39	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xee5631…
07-31 03:43:26	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	13	49¢	$7	0x00664f…
07-31 03:42:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xfff20d…
07-31 01:47:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	91	23¢	$21	0x379d40…
07-30 23:39:30	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	133	9¢	$12	0x463d9c…
07-30 14:00:38	bitcoin above 64k on july 30 2026	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x531d67…
07-30 00:48:36	bitcoin above 64k on july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x2e3fd3…
07-30 00:38:24	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	13	89¢	$11	0x776a4a…