0x05ae158cab5eeef1741f7b1660f913c7da8b5323 — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$641

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

60.3%

Resolved

448

Trades

946

lifetime

Volume

$18.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$63

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-25 22:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Politics

42% 36% -$418

Sports

34% 50% +$135

Other

23% 33% -$343

Crypto

0% 45% -$14

Tech

0% 0% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 140 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+31	$24	94¢	$29	+$5	05-09 11:51
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+11	$10	94¢	$10	+$0	10-07 15:35
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+11	$9	61¢	$7	-$2	10-07 15:34
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	-255	-$15	2¢	$-6	+$10	09-15 18:45
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+5	$5	95¢	$5	$0	10-07 15:36
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+2	$2	96¢	$2	+$0	05-07 22:45
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+2	$2	100¢	$2	+$0	05-10 10:37
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	05-08 01:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	05-06 23:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	9	$5.8K	3,067	3,618	-550	Yes	+$58	05-20 20:37
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	4	$2.8K	2,214	690	+1,525	Yes	+$55	10-04 22:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$530	200	600	-400	Yes	-$2	02-24 21:07
will bangladesh jamaat e islami win the most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	4	$295	0	600	-600	No	-$5	02-11 04:47
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$282	0	562	-562	No	+$1	04-02 14:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$250	0	500	-500	Yes	$0	03-03 16:32
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	5	$223	200	600	-400	No	-$5	02-12 18:36
Will Sanderson win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	4	$218	313	147	+166	Yes	+$193	10-04 22:31
nvda close above 190 on february 10 2026	1	$200	0	200	-200	No	$0	02-10 22:00
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$198	0	400	-400	No	-$2	02-11 04:48
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$198	0	400	-400	No	-$2	02-11 04:47
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$198	0	400	-400	Yes	-$2	02-11 04:48
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$198	0	400	-400	No	-$2	02-11 04:47
open up or down on february 12 2026	2	$197	100	100	+0	Down	-$1	02-12 18:27
amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 12 2026 2pt21	2	$196	0	400	-400	Yes	-$4	02-11 04:48
will the bangladesh nationalist party bnp win between 150 and 199 seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	2	$196	0	400	-400	No	-$4	02-11 04:47
spx opens up or down on february 11 2026	2	$194	0	400	-400	Up	-$6	02-11 04:47
will solv energy incs market cap be between 4pt6b and 5pt0b at market close on ipo day	2	$194	0	400	-400	No	-$6	02-11 04:47
will mrbeasts next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 4	6	$193	0	400	-400	Yes	-$7	02-11 04:47
will agi incs market cap be less than 2pt75b at market close on ipo day	2	$193	0	400	-400	Yes	-$7	02-11 04:47
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?	2	$135	223	223	+0	No	-$25	10-04 20:53
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	2	$120	326	0	+326	No	-$120	10-04 12:12
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$111	60	60	+0	No	+$7	04-18 15:57
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	2	$105	202	0	+202	Yes	+$97	10-04 12:17
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	3	$103	166	0	+166	Yes	+$63	10-04 21:30
bra cru vas 2026 03 15 vas	1	$100	165	0	+165	No	-$100	03-16 00:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$99	0	200	-200	Yes	-$1	02-11 00:50
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	3	$95	0	200	-200	No	-$5	02-11 00:50
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	2	$95	691	691	+0	No	-$65	10-04 20:51
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	2	$90	383	0	+383	Yes	-$90	10-04 12:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 22:56:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x04692f…
10-12 21:09:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on October 12?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x3b46c8…
10-12 20:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 12?	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xb84479…
10-12 14:10:11	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x2f79aa…
10-12 14:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc93c56…
10-12 14:09:54	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x12c7f0…
10-12 14:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x59cc82…
10-12 14:09:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xa45f84…
10-12 14:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4b2552…
10-12 14:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x10a95e…
10-12 14:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x6c618a…
10-12 14:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x312ba1…
10-12 14:09:20	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc9fdbd…
10-12 12:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 12?	No	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x1d8491…
10-12 12:20:53	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12?	No	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0x896e88…
10-12 12:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 12?	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x550123…
10-12 11:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 12?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x198d2a…
10-12 11:35:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa598fa…
10-12 11:29:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x18e054…
10-12 11:27:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x13fcfb…
10-12 10:18:39	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	1	40¢	$1	0xf8b68a…
10-12 10:14:59	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x878710…
10-12 10:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8a6b03…
10-12 10:14:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9d304c…
10-12 10:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xae334f…
10-12 10:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 12?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3b8874…
10-12 10:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on October 12?	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x7e7a1c…
10-12 09:51:58	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 12?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x7ba264…
10-12 09:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0x12fbe5…
10-12 09:43:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x9a4c99…
10-12 09:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 12?	No	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0x78da84…
10-12 09:28:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 12?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xbbc8c1…
10-12 09:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 12?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x34e67d…
10-12 09:23:58	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x239a38…
10-12 09:21:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on October 12?	No	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xadab78…
10-12 09:13:04	Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)	BNK FEARX	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x6b3880…
10-12 09:09:47	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xa66397…
10-12 09:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 12?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x0c4b3a…
10-12 08:54:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 12?	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x57c854…
10-12 08:42:42	Spread: Rams (-3.5)	Rams	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x81bbda…
10-12 08:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0x20e945…
10-12 08:21:51	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 12?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf1f661…
10-12 08:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 12?	No	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0xe3ffb3…
10-12 08:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 12?	No	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xaaf28b…
10-12 07:50:00	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 12?	No	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x4c77c7…
10-12 07:49:58	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x2635b3…
10-12 07:41:07	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0xb11554…
10-12 07:37:59	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 12?	No	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xd004b8…
10-12 05:54:48	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	JD Gaming	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xf3ab59…
10-12 02:27:15	Bulls vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xe1034b…
10-10 23:11:55	Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 9?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xfcebea…
10-10 17:59:01	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	No	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x39bfa4…
10-10 13:47:37	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x3792fa…
10-10 13:33:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 10?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xafd67f…
10-10 13:33:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 10?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf75886…
10-10 07:19:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 10?	No	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x09820b…
10-10 05:26:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 10?	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x69ec7a…
10-10 02:59:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 10?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7fb7c4…
10-10 02:13:59	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	No	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xd5a739…
10-10 02:13:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 10?	No	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xdbe86d…
10-10 01:39:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 10?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xc44f5b…
10-10 01:39:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 10?	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x269b6b…
10-10 01:38:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x6ef10a…
10-10 01:16:38	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x46f273…
10-10 01:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 10?	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x40e8a9…
10-10 01:03:46	Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in New York?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2abc1b…
10-10 01:03:32	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 10?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x91d377…
10-10 01:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x12dc8b…
10-10 01:00:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0xb4df1a…
10-10 00:59:17	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 10?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc1c907…
10-10 00:58:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	61¢	$3	0x89e460…
10-10 00:57:50	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xd8115d…
10-10 00:56:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xabbf9b…
10-10 00:56:32	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 10?	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x7ef501…
10-10 00:56:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x89657c…
10-10 00:55:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on October 10?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x59efe0…
10-10 00:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 10?	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xaca48f…
10-10 00:55:19	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 10?	No	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xefa825…
10-09 13:33:28	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x1337b0…
10-09 13:32:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $228 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x0ce51b…
10-09 13:32:28	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xcc602c…
10-09 10:53:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0xc96475…
10-09 10:43:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	1	31¢	$0	0x7d76f4…
10-09 10:43:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x1b8619…
10-09 10:39:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	1	65¢	$0	0x34a34e…
10-09 10:07:10	Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	T1	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x8bcf11…
10-09 09:55:31	dota2 1win pari 2026 10 09	PARIVISION	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xae22ae…
10-09 09:55:16	will googl dip to 345 by october 5 2026 from october 7	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xbffda2…
10-09 09:51:22	Kashiwa Reysol vs. Vissel Kōbe: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x18a3ad…
10-09 09:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 9?	No	BUY	8	43¢	$4	0xa99759…
10-09 09:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on October 9?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x55f440…
10-09 09:17:03	BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xd00f46…
10-09 09:14:22	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x9c9eae…
10-09 09:13:34	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x13b3a6…
10-09 09:11:24	PSV vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x28df1c…
10-09 09:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xf27df8…
10-09 09:06:10	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on October 9?	Yes	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0x37d2da…
10-09 09:03:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x826be7…
10-09 09:03:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x23a005…
10-09 08:56:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x4253cc…