Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$236.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$10.2K

Hit rate

70.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,916

lifetime

Volume

$4.66M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.60K

Open exposure

$119.0K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 06:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

68% 87% +$359,286

Politics

32% 32% -$122,928

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-81,270	-$79,053	94¢	$-76800	+$2,253	10-27 06:27
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+27,935	$23,515	84¢	$23.5K	-$50	07-08 21:58
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+21,778	$18,271	85¢	$18.5K	+$229	07-08 20:30
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	-278	-$239	97¢	$-270	-$31	06-28 18:16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$7,780	98¢	$0	+$7,780	09-26 13:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	417	$637.5K	412,424	411,917	+507	No	+$79,524	03-07 10:28
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	70	$612.3K	334,148	334,148	+0	open	—	09-26 13:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	123	$611.4K	300,159	381,428	-81,270	open	—	10-27 06:27
another us government shutdown by february 14	263	$440.6K	469,171	468,770	+401	No	+$245,872	02-15 02:49
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	697	$435.1K	283,248	297,295	-14,048	Yes	+$14,393	01-31 05:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	8	$418.6K	3,000	425,472	-422,472	No	-$9,402	06-15 09:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	228	$239.6K	321,541	321,541	+0	Yes	-$93,220	02-28 17:45
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	233	$167.7K	172,151	57,716	+114,436	No	+$15,267	02-03 18:07
us government funding lapse on january 31	30	$133.7K	68,388	68,388	+0	Yes	+$1,691	01-31 05:22
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	48	$81.5K	60,076	23,821	+36,255	No	+$1,125	02-09 17:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	58	$77.2K	60,354	60,354	+0	Yes	-$22,924	02-28 17:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	88	$66.7K	45,602	45,602	+0	No	+$1,404	04-20 14:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	6	$62.1K	37,409	37,409	+0	No	+$5,985	03-25 05:37
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	92	$61.6K	108,079	108,079	+0	Yes	-$13,240	04-03 16:14
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	9	$59.5K	35,887	35,887	+0	No	-$737	01-13 07:36
will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 772 652	30	$58.8K	30,985	30,985	+0	No	+$684	02-03 15:07
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	6	$55.6K	54,644	2,604	+52,040	Yes	+$1,624	01-31 13:59
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	3	$55.0K	30,244	30,244	+0	No	+$46	02-02 12:29
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$45.8K	27,543	27,538	+5	No	-$2,078	03-25 19:09
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	117	$43.2K	58,508	58,508	+0	No	-$16,015	02-08 14:01
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	73	$42.1K	26,214	26,214	+0	No	+$1,403	01-28 14:13
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	34	$36.0K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$800	02-09 17:13
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	8	$35.8K	56,269	6,681	+49,588	Yes	+$23,111	02-21 00:06
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	8	$31.2K	16,697	16,697	+0	No	+$973	01-25 05:42
Iran leadership change by December 31?	12	$23.5K	27,935	0	+27,935	open	—	07-08 21:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	21	$21.5K	14,400	14,400	+0	No	+$1,296	04-01 13:15
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	8	$20.0K	10,757	10,757	+0	Yes	+$1,076	03-05 20:19
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	13	$18.4K	12,146	12,146	+0	No	-$119	02-28 20:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	34	$18.3K	21,778	0	+21,778	open	—	07-08 20:30
will the government shutdown last 6 days or more 888	11	$12.8K	6,866	6,866	+0	No	+$650	02-03 17:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 06:27:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	944	94¢	$888	0xdcbd42…
10-27 06:23:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xe2b6b1…
10-27 04:47:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x3f34d2…
10-27 03:47:08	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	94¢	$9,400	0xc9be73…
10-27 03:19:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xb2a748…
10-27 03:00:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	5,206	94¢	$4,894	0x90d823…
10-27 02:46:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	108	94¢	$102	0x8cc691…
10-27 02:39:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0xecd896…
10-27 01:49:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0xe5bf84…
10-27 01:27:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1b74f5…
10-27 01:04:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x257d72…
10-26 22:00:26	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x9d300e…
10-26 21:37:20	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x62b89e…
10-26 20:26:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	400	94¢	$376	0x4b3fa7…
10-26 17:34:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xd83994…
10-26 16:52:53	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x3479af…
10-26 16:22:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x92567e…
10-26 16:22:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x167817…
10-26 15:33:08	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xe3e91e…
10-26 14:25:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0x61e799…
10-26 13:06:47	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	500	94¢	$470	0xcf378d…
10-26 12:53:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x3f9c73…
10-26 12:50:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xc92d45…
10-26 12:44:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x054e1b…
10-26 12:30:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0xc4f05a…
10-26 12:23:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	47,636	94¢	$44,778	0xe3df06…
10-04 09:07:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	90	64¢	$58	0x8fe624…
10-04 09:07:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0xd9ac79…
09-28 21:14:50	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	11,000	94¢	$10,340	0xb02f74…
09-26 13:48:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,733	96¢	$10,272	0xa26dfa…
09-26 10:27:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0xca7dae…
09-26 08:53:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xa0cdb8…
09-26 08:35:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	96¢	$124	0x0233e3…
09-26 07:43:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,300	94¢	$4,982	0xe76f7b…
09-26 06:29:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x62fad4…
09-26 05:01:14	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0x9e57d0…
09-26 04:56:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	147	96¢	$141	0xb54ee7…
09-26 02:54:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0xc1a1b0…
09-26 00:16:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	302	96¢	$289	0x506cb5…
09-25 20:16:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	397	96¢	$380	0x0eb5ee…
09-25 20:13:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	547	96¢	$523	0x3dcc6f…
09-25 19:54:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	987	96¢	$944	0xab590a…
09-25 19:48:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,062	96¢	$1,016	0xdfc31e…
09-25 19:46:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	394	96¢	$377	0x901ef9…
09-25 18:40:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$19	0xad5177…
09-25 18:28:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x95e9a4…
09-25 17:50:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	173	96¢	$165	0xd510ff…
09-25 17:40:48	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x1b05a7…
09-25 16:21:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$383	0x7bd710…
09-25 16:10:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xa579d1…
09-25 14:33:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xde97ef…
09-25 14:13:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xfcaeaf…
09-25 13:36:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3d3d55…
09-25 11:57:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	39,000	94¢	$36,660	0x9cbd17…
09-25 11:45:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38,000	96¢	$36,366	0xa37918…
09-25 11:45:53	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$957	0x8ce973…
09-25 11:12:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x91daa5…
09-25 10:49:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1,990	94¢	$1,871	0x53bca9…
09-25 10:47:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,556	96¢	$1,489	0x45d0d5…
09-25 10:47:12	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$478	0x1eceef…
09-25 05:46:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8,000	94¢	$7,520	0x21fb69…
09-24 20:46:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0x5d2517…
09-24 20:33:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	406	96¢	$390	0x456e73…
09-24 15:04:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	96¢	$575	0xab1a71…
09-24 15:03:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,800	96¢	$1,726	0xa178cf…
09-24 13:34:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x1f0118…
09-24 13:24:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x772c70…
09-24 12:51:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x1fe1b9…
09-24 12:51:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x9cd36a…
09-24 12:51:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xac4f71…
09-24 12:50:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2ef40e…
09-24 10:59:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	313	96¢	$300	0x839646…
09-24 10:04:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,929	96¢	$4,727	0xa51a66…
09-23 20:44:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x7cc6be…
09-23 17:44:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,517	96¢	$3,380	0x174efb…
09-22 22:26:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	228	96¢	$219	0x1a4888…
09-22 18:00:51	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	450	96¢	$432	0x6493d8…
09-22 15:33:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	156	96¢	$150	0x9838b0…
09-22 14:53:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	96¢	$577	0x135753…
09-22 13:59:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x88c7e8…
09-22 13:52:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x513f81…
09-22 12:36:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9c69ba…
09-02 10:47:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x3473fd…
08-30 13:54:42	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	145	94¢	$137	0x0fd0c8…
08-24 17:17:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0xe1bfe3…
08-17 08:59:12	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	83,458	92¢	$76,781	0x55c160…
08-17 08:54:54	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	170,000	92¢	$156,400	0x443ed0…
08-17 08:33:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,500	92¢	$5,060	0xb6034f…
08-17 08:31:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	45,779	93¢	$42,574	0xe9a368…
08-17 08:17:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	30,000	93¢	$27,900	0x32e243…
08-10 15:53:39	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x2fdf6a…
08-10 15:53:36	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	239	84¢	$201	0x5eb92b…
08-10 15:51:42	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x54f99c…
08-10 15:50:37	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x651da9…
08-10 15:13:54	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	495	84¢	$416	0x44d106…
08-10 14:11:18	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	101	78¢	$79	0x70c497…
07-19 22:38:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	11,000	89¢	$9,790	0x9f36ad…
07-08 21:58:53	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	175	84¢	$147	0xdfe19e…
07-08 21:34:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	4,000	84¢	$3,360	0xd7ec66…
07-08 21:34:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	3,125	84¢	$2,625	0x000ce3…