Descriptive-Overshoot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,528

lifetime

Volume

$160.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

$38

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 07-13 21:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

60% 50% $-92

Crypto

25% 100% +$1

Other

15% 50% +$111

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes		+157	$42	18¢	$28	$-13	07-13 21:08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes		+100	$14	10¢	$10	$-4	06-06 17:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	50	$7.1K	4,404	4,404	+0	open	—	04-08 19:07
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	35	$7.0K	5,119	5,119	+0	open	—	04-16 02:55
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	80	$6.2K	4,011	3,424	+587	open	—	04-13 07:40
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	109	$4.9K	5,463	3,431	+2,031	open	—	04-10 07:26
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	90	$4.7K	4,188	4,193	-5	Yes	+$189	05-02 11:05
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	57	$4.5K	3,962	943	+3,019	open	—	04-11 22:01
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	24	$4.3K	2,560	2,560	+0	open	—	04-05 05:02
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	21	$4.1K	2,470	2,470	+0	open	—	03-25 20:22
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	19	$2.8K	1,456	1,456	+0	open	—	04-24 19:45
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	29	$2.7K	1,432	1,551	-119	open	—	04-13 10:53
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	22	$2.6K	2,193	2,045	+148	open	—	03-26 05:09
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	5	$2.2K	1,216	1,216	+0	open	—	05-15 21:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	16	$2.1K	2,430	1,200	+1,230	open	—	03-29 18:47
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	58	$2.1K	2,239	2,054	+185	open	—	04-03 00:53
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	36	$2.1K	2,152	2,035	+117	open	—	04-27 06:15
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	17	$1.9K	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	03-31 01:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	20	$1.9K	1,503	2,310	-807	open	—	07-02 20:58
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	11	$1.7K	1,643	1,079	+564	open	—	06-14 20:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	25	$1.6K	1,387	1,387	+0	open	—	05-02 14:45
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	5	$1.6K	795	795	+0	open	—	05-15 15:49
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	15	$1.5K	1,455	86	+1,369	open	—	04-06 22:22
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 24 2026 647	6	$1.4K	775	775	+0	open	—	03-25 06:15
cs2 furia vit 2026 04 18	17	$1.4K	1,135	731	+404	open	—	04-18 20:51
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	20	$1.4K	695	695	+0	open	—	04-07 17:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	34	$1.3K	3,309	3,309	+0	open	—	04-17 18:48
btc updown 5m 1776976800	50	$1.3K	954	844	+110	open	—	04-23 20:44
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	33	$1.3K	1,185	1,185	+0	open	—	03-24 12:52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	23	$1.2K	1,418	776	+642	open	—	04-24 06:22
netanyahu out by march 31 854	10	$1.1K	577	577	+0	open	—	03-20 16:52
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	6	$1.1K	1,210	1,210	+0	open	—	05-15 18:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 21:08:44	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	24¢	$23	0xdaa617…
07-02 21:06:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	179	99¢	$177	0x837b6a…
07-02 21:05:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	240	93¢	$223	0x707d93…
07-02 20:58:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	387	100¢	$385	0xe06000…
07-02 20:48:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	320	100¢	$319	0x66cd26…
07-01 05:35:37	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0x589e31…
07-01 02:04:32	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	315	5¢	$16	0xee89c2…
06-30 17:57:19	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	121	3¢	$4	0x915e55…
06-30 17:56:31	will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	438	3¢	$13	0x6f61f0…
06-30 17:26:58	will bitcoin dip to 57k on june 30	No	BUY	31	85¢	$26	0x99a08d…
06-30 15:05:01	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x64a119…
06-30 15:04:58	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	140	46¢	$65	0xe06b2b…
06-30 15:04:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	140	45¢	$63	0xd7649b…
06-30 15:04:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x83b128…
06-29 19:32:56	btc updown 5m 1782761400	Down	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xf52a8a…
06-29 19:32:56	btc updown 5m 1782761400	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xc21c91…
06-29 19:32:56	btc updown 5m 1782761400	Down	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x0a45ff…
06-29 19:30:38	btc updown 5m 1782761400	Down	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x64e7da…
06-29 19:27:40	btc updown 5m 1782761100	Up	SELL	80	64¢	$51	0xce9469…
06-29 19:25:41	btc updown 5m 1782761100	Up	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf51a06…
06-29 19:25:26	btc updown 5m 1782761100	Up	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x68dc84…
06-29 19:25:16	btc updown 5m 1782761100	Up	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x2d973e…
06-27 17:18:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xdb382d…
06-27 12:55:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x3c8827…
06-26 05:36:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x03a2f6…
06-25 03:17:59	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	31¢	$19	0xb069b7…
06-23 18:02:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x11c09a…
06-23 18:00:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x76d69d…
06-22 13:57:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	117	94¢	$110	0xcfe68e…
06-21 04:27:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	280	93¢	$260	0x852e7d…
06-21 04:27:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	110	74¢	$81	0xf9b0c1…
06-20 19:59:20	btc updown 5m 1781985300	Up	SELL	13	82¢	$10	0xbe993b…
06-20 19:59:20	btc updown 5m 1781985300	Up	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0xb8850c…
06-20 19:59:20	btc updown 5m 1781985300	Up	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x2f7bfd…
06-20 19:56:31	btc updown 5m 1781985300	Up	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x1b518e…
06-20 19:55:04	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0x032c71…
06-20 19:52:37	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0x7ef7f8…
06-20 19:52:35	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x13ce02…
06-20 19:52:34	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xb15223…
06-20 19:52:32	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x22b360…
06-20 19:51:28	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x181d8c…
06-20 19:50:23	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	35	44¢	$15	0xa7f0ff…
06-20 19:50:23	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x31ff4e…
06-20 14:06:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	130	76¢	$99	0x12a3cf…
06-20 14:05:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x564b93…
06-19 17:10:35	btc updown 5m 1781889000	Down	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xc58577…
06-19 16:48:10	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xff5945…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xe9dc3d…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	26	90¢	$23	0xe4f361…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xb79bae…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xa433fc…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x74cdec…
06-19 16:48:08	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x30238d…
06-19 16:46:34	btc updown 5m 1781887500	Down	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x019e8d…
06-19 10:57:58	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	77	50¢	$39	0x6d42dd…
06-19 10:53:26	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	52	84¢	$43	0xd20a64…
06-19 10:51:17	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0xec7c0f…
06-19 10:50:26	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	25	84¢	$21	0x180037…
06-19 10:49:26	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	181	86¢	$156	0xa92b36…
06-18 17:08:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	209	39¢	$81	0xb3ae82…
06-18 06:59:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	526	19¢	$100	0x1787eb…
06-18 06:57:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x174e02…
06-18 06:54:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	53	19¢	$10	0xea4dad…
06-18 06:52:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x22f38f…
06-18 06:50:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x869e2c…
06-18 06:46:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xeb97f0…
06-18 06:46:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0xd36045…
06-18 06:46:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x2e3920…
06-18 06:46:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,000	19¢	$190	0x2cd5d3…
06-17 20:45:50	btc updown 5m 1781729100	Down	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0x90ff54…
06-17 20:45:25	btc updown 5m 1781729100	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x96f37a…
06-17 20:45:23	btc updown 5m 1781729100	Down	BUY	4	62¢	$3	0xa14b22…
06-17 20:45:23	btc updown 5m 1781729100	Down	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x77eefe…
06-16 20:41:08	btc updown 5m 1781642400	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0a629a…
06-16 20:40:29	btc updown 5m 1781642400	Down	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x3429c3…
06-16 20:37:22	btc updown 5m 1781642100	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x94dee4…
06-16 20:36:49	btc updown 5m 1781642100	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xadfa05…
06-16 20:35:23	btc updown 5m 1781642100	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x00af2d…
06-16 20:32:11	btc updown 5m 1781641800	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x3659ea…
06-16 20:30:50	btc updown 5m 1781641800	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x687970…
06-16 20:30:46	btc updown 5m 1781641800	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xfda3b8…
06-16 20:27:50	btc updown 5m 1781641500	Up	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0xb263e6…
06-15 04:31:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	7¢	$8	0x95a6e7…
06-14 20:40:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	73	95¢	$69	0xd184f5…
06-14 20:40:31	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	127	95¢	$121	0x84b97f…
06-14 20:34:10	israel closes its airspace by june 14	No	BUY	70	95¢	$67	0xfb1a14…
06-14 20:34:10	israel closes its airspace by june 14	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x6f46f4…
06-14 20:33:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf49e66…
06-14 20:33:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x28d6ef…
06-13 20:29:04	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xe67595…
06-13 20:25:24	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	110	65¢	$71	0x9a1bca…
06-13 20:07:21	btc updown 5m 1781381100	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x67e6ca…
06-13 20:02:52	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	144	69¢	$100	0xde5f1c…
06-13 19:52:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	245	65¢	$160	0xf264f7…
06-13 17:36:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0xf2bf9d…
06-13 17:36:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	343	33¢	$114	0x3a2ea1…
06-13 17:03:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	196	25¢	$50	0xbb92cf…
06-13 16:10:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	391	23¢	$90	0x7ca1c9…
06-13 16:09:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	343	25¢	$85	0xb80f1c…
06-13 16:08:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	485	76¢	$368	0x47c552…