Realized P&L
+$52
Unrealized P&L
+$2.46K
Hit rate
42.5%
Resolved
7
Trades
3,456
lifetime
Volume
$153.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$44
Open exposure
$11.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 07-01 03:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
76% 50% +$40
Other
15% 60% +$12
Tech
9%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 293 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +4,869 $3,308 97¢ $4.7K +$1,437 06-30 16:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +1,689 $1,495 100¢ $1.7K +$187 06-23 18:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +1,475 $1,122 99¢ $1.5K +$343 06-19 11:20
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +984 $498 100¢ $983 +$484 06-08 12:22
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No +566 $394 100¢ $566 +$172 05-31 17:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +246 $221 100¢ $245 +$24 06-14 12:46
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -262 $-206 88¢ $-229 $-23 06-12 14:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +250 $132 70¢ $174 +$42 06-13 16:33
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +156 $115 99¢ $155 +$39 06-11 20:51
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +168 $134 86¢ $145 +$12 06-26 14:46
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +151 $100 83¢ $126 +$25 06-08 10:07
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +150 $115 84¢ $125 +$10 05-28 10:22
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes +110 $110 99¢ $109 $-1 06-28 11:04
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +4,126 $352 $105 $-246 07-01 02:17
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +100 $89 94¢ $94 +$4 05-31 02:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +100 $84 86¢ $86 +$2 06-03 10:30
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +335 $85 25¢ $84 $-1 06-25 10:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +250 $129 30¢ $76 $-53 06-19 11:20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +60 $52 90¢ $54 +$2 06-23 11:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -60 $-45 82¢ $-49 $-4 05-29 15:04
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No +50 $46 98¢ $49 +$3 06-26 16:29
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +46 $40 89¢ $40 +$1 06-24 21:50
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +49 $40 78¢ $38 $-1 06-30 18:20
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? Yes +38 $37 99¢ $38 +$1 06-29 14:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +200 $36 15¢ $29 $-7 06-03 13:27
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +30 $25 86¢ $26 +$1 06-19 16:13
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$1 06-04 12:17
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No +20 $19 99¢ $20 +$1 06-22 10:08
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +20 $19 96¢ $19 +$0 06-04 16:50
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes +49 $10 22¢ $11 +$0 06-26 18:08