Realized P&L
+$52
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
42.5%
Resolved
7
Trades
4,095
lifetime
Volume
$189.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$46
Open exposure
$1.91K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 07-21 11:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
71% 50% +$40
Other
18% 60% +$12
Tech
11%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 293 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +250 $132 99¢ $247 +$116 06-13 16:33
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -262 $-206 88¢ $-229 $-23 06-12 14:52
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $181 88¢ $175 $-6 07-11 07:30
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No +168 $134 88¢ $149 +$15 06-26 14:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +200 $162 74¢ $147 $-15 07-15 22:40
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +150 $115 88¢ $131 +$16 05-28 10:22
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +151 $100 84¢ $126 +$26 06-08 10:07
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +100 $89 94¢ $94 +$4 05-31 02:26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +120 $102 77¢ $92 $-10 07-13 01:27
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +103 $89 85¢ $88 $-1 07-14 11:23
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +335 $85 22¢ $75 $-10 06-25 10:41
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No +97 $75 78¢ $75 $-0 07-15 15:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +200 $36 26¢ $53 +$17 06-03 13:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -60 $-45 76¢ $-45 $-0 05-29 15:04
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +49 $40 84¢ $41 +$2 06-30 18:20
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +30 $25 88¢ $26 +$2 06-19 16:13
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No +40 $18 52¢ $21 +$2 07-08 22:19
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes +40 $16 48¢ $19 +$3 07-09 21:33
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +20 $19 96¢ $19 +$1 06-04 16:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +60 $6 23¢ $14 +$8 07-08 08:21
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? Yes +101 $13 $9 $-3 06-25 08:04
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No +10 $8 82¢ $8 +$0 06-02 11:05
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes +49 $10 16¢ $8 $-3 06-26 18:08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +38 $5 12¢ $5 $-0 06-23 12:15
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +30 $8 12¢ $4 $-4 05-28 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +250 $129 $3 $-126 06-19 11:20
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $2 24¢ $2 +$1 07-12 23:29
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? Yes +20 $3 11¢ $2 $-1 07-16 20:22
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? Yes +10 $2 18¢ $2 $-0 06-23 20:14
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Yes -5 $-2 16¢ $-1 +$1 05-28 10:20