Realized P&L
+$53.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$26.4K
Hit rate
81.6%
Resolved
958
Trades
12,442
lifetime
Volume
$1.09M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$87
Open exposure
$143.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 10-29 23:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 173 days
Categories
Politics
50% 70% +$22,475
Other
45% 73% +$29,880
Tech
5% 74% +$1,455
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 371 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +13,739 $9,017 100¢ $13.7K +$4,654 10-28 12:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +15,314 $11,406 84¢ $12.8K +$1,381 10-29 23:12
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +10,883 $3,603 99¢ $10.8K +$7,204 10-29 11:37
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +11,016 $8,554 97¢ $10.7K +$2,132 10-28 18:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,677 $9,297 74¢ $8.6K -$714 10-26 22:12
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +8,209 $5,624 80¢ $6.5K +$902 10-23 18:49
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +8,034 $6,906 72¢ $5.8K -$1,081 10-15 12:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +6,274 $4,124 88¢ $5.6K +$1,428 09-22 11:47
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +6,000 $5,087 88¢ $5.2K +$163 09-22 09:09
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +4,567 $3,014 88¢ $4.0K +$981 08-28 17:29
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +3,857 $3,087 98¢ $3.8K +$712 10-28 02:51
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +3,799 $3,586 96¢ $3.7K +$76 10-26 19:28
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +3,900 $3,246 94¢ $3.6K +$400 10-02 06:20
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +3,654 $2,610 99¢ $3.6K +$1,020 10-16 01:12
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +4,486 $3,306 78¢ $3.5K +$171 10-29 23:06
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +3,482 $1,970 98¢ $3.4K +$1,453 10-29 10:52
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +3,403 $2,651 99¢ $3.4K +$720 10-23 18:00
us imports russian diesel by october 31 No +3,335 $3,002 99¢ $3.3K +$291 10-23 09:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,000 $3,250 82¢ $3.3K +$10 10-26 17:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +11,677 $2,359 26¢ $3.1K +$735 10-22 17:03
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +4,409 $2,433 68¢ $3.0K +$587 10-30 00:19
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +2,943 $2,502 99¢ $2.9K +$410 10-09 16:11
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +2,961 $2,255 94¢ $2.8K +$543 10-23 15:52
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +2,678 $1,956 99¢ $2.7K +$697 10-23 07:38
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,089 $1,901 84¢ $2.6K +$709 10-21 15:37
Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +2,421 $2,072 100¢ $2.4K +$343 10-28 11:05
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,741 $923 82¢ $2.2K +$1,325 10-21 13:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +13,614 $4,536 16¢ $2.2K -$2,290 10-29 22:55
another fed rate hike in 2026 No +8,034 $1,072 28¢ $2.2K +$1,137 10-15 20:55
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +2,187 $1,859 100¢ $2.2K +$325 10-28 22:52