Realized P&L
+$52.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$22.2K
Hit rate
81.5%
Resolved
952
Trades
12,232
lifetime
Volume
$1.06M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$86
Open exposure
$124.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 10-28 20:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 172 days
Categories
Politics
50% 70% +$22,475
Other
45% 74% +$28,904
Tech
5% 74% +$1,455
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 371 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +13,739 $9,017 100¢ $13.7K +$4,722 10-28 12:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +11,016 $8,554 99¢ $10.9K +$2,352 10-28 18:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +11,677 $9,297 82¢ $9.6K +$337 10-26 22:12
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +7,642 $5,591 96¢ $7.3K +$1,745 10-25 21:58
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +8,209 $5,624 84¢ $6.9K +$1,313 10-23 18:49
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +8,034 $6,906 80¢ $6.4K -$518 10-15 12:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +6,274 $4,124 88¢ $5.6K +$1,428 09-22 11:47
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +6,000 $5,087 88¢ $5.2K +$163 09-22 09:09
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? Yes +4,567 $3,014 88¢ $4.0K +$1,027 08-28 17:29
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +3,857 $3,087 98¢ $3.8K +$693 10-28 02:51
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 Yes +3,900 $3,246 96¢ $3.8K +$517 10-02 06:20
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +3,654 $2,610 100¢ $3.6K +$1,035 10-16 01:12
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +3,799 $3,586 96¢ $3.6K +$52 10-26 19:28
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +3,403 $2,651 99¢ $3.4K +$723 10-23 18:00
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +3,335 $3,002 99¢ $3.3K +$307 10-23 09:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,000 $3,250 82¢ $3.3K +$10 10-26 17:18
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +2,943 $2,502 99¢ $2.9K +$401 10-09 16:11
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +2,961 $2,255 96¢ $2.8K +$573 10-23 15:52
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +3,104 $2,361 91¢ $2.8K +$464 10-24 05:23
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,089 $1,901 88¢ $2.7K +$832 10-21 15:37
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +2,678 $1,956 98¢ $2.6K +$664 10-23 07:38
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,741 $923 79¢ $2.2K +$1,242 10-21 13:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +11,677 $2,359 18¢ $2.0K -$316 10-22 17:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +2,500 $1,707 78¢ $2.0K +$256 09-17 14:51
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +2,000 $1,840 97¢ $1.9K +$108 10-24 13:22
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Yes +2,097 $1,414 80¢ $1.7K +$263 10-19 21:28
another fed rate hike in 2026 No +8,034 $1,072 20¢ $1.6K +$575 10-15 20:55
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +2,097 $744 70¢ $1.5K +$724 10-23 07:06
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? No +1,370 $1,204 100¢ $1.4K +$162 10-28 00:20
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? No +1,354 $1,054 100¢ $1.3K +$294 10-16 18:43