Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$262

Unrealized P&L

-$37

Hit rate

22.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,050

lifetime

Volume

$16.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$1.52K

26 positions

First seen

2026-09-27

last 10-30 19:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Other

82% 29% -$291

Politics

10% 14% +$63

Tech

5% 33% -$9

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$24

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions (26) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	+300	$181	99¢	$298	+$117	10-12 16:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+313	$144	68¢	$211	+$67	10-01 00:14
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	+126	$31	99¢	$125	+$93	09-28 13:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+313	$167	32¢	$102	-$66	10-06 00:15
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	+102	$78	100¢	$101	+$23	10-07 21:12
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	No	+130	$98	73¢	$95	-$3	10-02 12:31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	+130	$109	72¢	$93	-$16	10-04 14:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	No	+128	$24	55¢	$71	+$46	09-28 05:30
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	Yes	+128	$104	45¢	$58	-$46	09-28 06:32
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+102	$31	52¢	$53	+$21	09-28 00:36
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	No	+103	$74	48¢	$50	-$24	09-28 07:45
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+50	$37	98¢	$49	+$13	10-29 04:15
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	No	+47	$34	99¢	$46	+$12	10-16 19:31
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	+43	$33	94¢	$40	+$7	10-13 14:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+130	$21	29¢	$37	+$16	10-04 12:47
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Yes	+130	$33	27¢	$35	+$3	10-02 23:59
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	+20	$14	92¢	$18	+$4	10-22 18:35
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	No	+24	$13	58¢	$14	+$1	10-18 02:41
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	Yes	+24	$11	42¢	$10	-$1	10-18 00:09
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+43	$18	6¢	$3	-$15	10-14 08:11
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	+126	$94	2¢	$3	-$92	09-28 13:49
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	+300	$144	1¢	$2	-$142	10-12 04:38
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	8¢	$2	-$4	10-22 19:24
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Yes	+102	$28	1¢	$1	-$27	10-07 22:35
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+50	$14	2¢	$1	-$13	10-29 04:15
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	+47	$14	1¢	$0	-$13	10-16 19:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	17	$641	657	657	+0	Yes	-$5	10-16 19:26
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	20	$618	853	253	+600	open	—	10-12 16:43
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	17	$611	736	534	+202	Yes	-$11	10-12 23:06
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	9	$392	500	239	+261	Yes	-$5	10-01 08:39
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	10	$384	427	427	+0	Yes	-$10	10-07 07:57
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	9	$361	219	219	+0	No	+$7	10-17 11:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	7	$347	664	39	+626	open	—	10-06 00:15
will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027	2	$300	434	434	+0	open	—	09-30 11:07
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	4	$276	165	165	+0	Yes	-$4	10-12 03:16
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	4	$240	222	222	+0	No	+$17	10-12 23:50
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	5	$223	240	154	+85	open	—	10-14 08:11
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 50 and 55 million views in week 1?	9	$207	229	229	+0	Yes	-$4	10-13 13:00
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?	15	$197	410	410	+0	Yes	-$19	10-12 19:14
Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	6	$194	208	208	+0	open	—	10-06 20:43
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	3	$186	130	130	+0	open	—	10-06 08:43
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	8	$183	295	90	+205	open	—	09-28 07:45
Will Luke Combs perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	2	$167	102	102	+0	open	—	10-12 04:20
Will a Junior win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	6	$163	195	195	+0	open	—	10-11 23:12
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 55 million or more views in week 1?	9	$158	183	137	+46	No	-$10	10-13 13:21
Will Simon peak at Category 5?	14	$154	188	188	+0	No	+$1	10-10 12:56
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	4	$148	130	130	+0	open	—	10-06 08:43
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	6	$145	152	152	+0	open	—	10-11 23:43
Will jawgemo have the most kills for G2 Esports at VALORANT Champions 2026?	4	$130	109	109	+0	No	-$6	10-12 05:49
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	2	$130	260	0	+260	open	—	10-02 23:59
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	2	$130	260	0	+260	open	—	10-04 14:10
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922	2	$128	257	0	+257	open	—	09-28 06:32
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	2	$126	252	0	+252	open	—	09-28 13:49
will lionel messi attend the 2026 ballon d or ceremony 20261016121846566	2	$121	149	149	+0	No	-$43	10-25 10:56
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	7	$118	208	208	+0	open	—	10-05 20:21
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	2	$117	234	0	+234	open	—	10-20 12:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 21:05:07	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x91c0c2…
10-30 21:02:33	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x66f918…
10-30 20:02:10	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0xdfbb6d…
10-30 20:02:09	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0xc4e2e6…
10-30 20:02:09	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0x28c018…
10-30 19:56:49	NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x242872…
10-30 19:29:33	Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xca5c94…
10-30 19:18:16	Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xfeb2c6…
10-30 18:22:07	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	19	75¢	$14	0x9449c9…
10-30 18:14:49	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x6d2c36…
10-30 18:04:43	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x4c7f4a…
10-30 18:02:18	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x1c7336…
10-30 18:01:09	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xf6e77a…
10-30 17:56:28	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xd8e4d3…
10-30 17:48:19	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by November 30?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x187a41…
10-30 17:47:49	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by November 30?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xdae4bd…
10-30 17:27:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	36	75¢	$27	0x575eac…
10-30 17:25:09	Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe0c400…
10-30 17:13:12	Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	No	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x9a08a8…
10-30 17:13:04	Will Ben Johns / Gabriel Tardio advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xbc18e2…
10-30 17:12:45	Will Ben Johns / Gabriel Tardio advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x973c6d…
10-30 17:12:28	Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xb27154…
10-30 17:12:28	Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	No	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x6e0003…
10-30 17:06:45	Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x3fbf64…
10-30 17:04:57	Will Pacifica launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xfcf971…
10-30 15:55:30	Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	25	66¢	$16	0x175885…
10-30 14:27:46	Will Anna Bright / Anna Leigh Waters advance to the Final in Women's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xad904d…
10-30 14:20:22	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x7852dc…
10-30 13:53:45	Will Federico Staksrud / Hayden Patriquin advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc0a893…
10-30 13:53:43	Will Federico Staksrud / Hayden Patriquin advance to the Final in Men's Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x6371c8…
10-30 13:23:54	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	29	49¢	$14	0x9a4fa8…
10-30 13:03:51	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x46e62b…
10-30 12:59:52	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x41fc0e…
10-30 11:45:15	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x87d866…
10-30 11:16:19	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xc5c945…
10-30 10:35:49	Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0x2df5fe…
10-30 09:55:49	Will the median home value in Miami be between $830,000 and $851,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xbb86f5…
10-30 08:48:01	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0x52b622…
10-30 08:48:00	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$14	0x35989d…
10-30 08:05:25	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x38aba6…
10-30 08:00:21	Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xfc429c…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	36	74¢	$27	0xe1d2af…
10-30 04:27:24	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?	No	SELL	45	62¢	$28	0xac4d52…
10-30 03:57:12	Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by June 30, 2028?	No	BUY	45	61¢	$28	0x7d1f9d…
10-30 02:55:45	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	32	35¢	$11	0x3b32d1…
10-30 02:55:25	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x751eb3…
10-30 02:55:24	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	19	65¢	$13	0x7338f4…
10-30 02:55:24	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x38c676…
10-29 23:10:10	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	36	79¢	$28	0x317743…
10-29 22:23:39	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	26	71¢	$18	0xe1ff70…
10-29 20:42:58	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x32e1b6…
10-29 20:41:33	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	Yes	BUY	39	28¢	$11	0x666f8f…
10-29 20:41:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	No	BUY	22	32¢	$7	0x637d54…
10-29 20:29:39	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	No	BUY	39	70¢	$27	0xcacf81…
10-29 20:06:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	Yes	BUY	42	64¢	$27	0x25c917…
10-29 19:11:31	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	21	43¢	$9	0x2ef522…
10-29 17:41:04	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	32	52¢	$16	0x6ff9c8…
10-29 16:32:08	Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x87ec59…
10-29 16:30:19	Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	36	74¢	$26	0x07b5f2…
10-29 15:22:58	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x202721…
10-29 15:22:56	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x886c4e…
10-29 15:22:46	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xe27478…
10-29 15:21:52	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x979451…
10-29 15:21:50	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x800857…
10-29 15:19:02	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	36¢	$7	0x303035…
10-29 15:18:14	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb9eb01…
10-29 15:18:10	Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc39cc3…
10-29 15:16:01	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x07e9d8…
10-29 15:15:58	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x0105f0…
10-29 15:15:31	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	21	40¢	$8	0x76c93a…
10-29 15:12:59	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0xd72772…
10-29 15:12:59	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x13394c…
10-29 14:43:08	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x9ef7b6…
10-29 14:42:47	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	13	63¢	$8	0x6764b8…
10-29 14:36:16	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x58c8f0…
10-29 14:21:50	Will "Phantom Blade Zero" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0x74d8f2…
10-29 14:14:40	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	9	43¢	$4	0x7646c3…
10-29 14:13:01	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xeca2a4…
10-29 14:13:01	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x1f4f08…
10-29 14:12:59	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	Yes	BUY	17	44¢	$7	0x8808f8…
10-29 14:12:11	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x85efd0…
10-29 14:12:07	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x4ae3fd…
10-29 14:08:58	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xe674cb…
10-29 14:08:37	Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Los Angeles Rams in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xfbaa5e…
10-29 14:08:35	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x5b5d5f…
10-29 14:08:31	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x18d8f5…
10-29 14:08:19	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	60¢	$11	0x3641cc…
10-29 14:07:52	Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xbfd014…
10-29 14:07:26	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0xa2a588…
10-29 14:06:14	Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0xd8b13f…
10-29 14:06:11	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	51¢	$13	0xbaa76b…
10-29 13:53:02	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0xd0076f…
10-29 13:52:26	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x779aff…
10-29 13:51:59	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x794078…
10-29 13:51:41	Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	24	61¢	$15	0x50efc1…
10-29 13:47:55	Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x53f489…
10-29 13:47:02	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0xe4ff36…
10-29 13:45:17	Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x3519af…
10-29 13:45:16	Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0xd7215a…
10-29 13:44:52	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x98b790…