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Realized P&L (7d)
-$218
Unrealized P&L
+$107
Hit rate
24.2%
Resolved (7d)
73
Trades (7d)
322
1,352 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$4.34K
$20.8K lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$1.79K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-27
last 11-06 14:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 29 days
Categories
Other
80% 32% -$403
Politics
12% 16% -$38
Tech
6% 40% -$9
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$28
Crypto
1% — —
Sports
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +313 $144 70¢ $217 +$73 10-01 00:14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +130 $109 82¢ $107 -$2 10-04 14:10
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? No +110 $89 96¢ $105 +$16 10-21 22:19
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +130 $98 76¢ $98 +$1 10-02 12:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +313 $167 30¢ $95 -$72 10-06 00:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922 No +128 $24 56¢ $73 +$48 09-28 05:30
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027? Yes +117 $53 54¢ $64 +$11 10-15 11:02
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026? No +100 $23 62¢ $62 +$39 11-01 16:46
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? No +100 $61 62¢ $62 +$0 11-05 21:26
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? No +65 $40 91¢ $59 +$20 10-14 18:15
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +102 $31 56¢ $57 +$25 09-28 00:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922 Yes +128 $104 44¢ $56 -$48 09-28 06:32
Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? Yes +70 $31 77¢ $53 +$22 10-29 15:12
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027? No +117 $64 45¢ $53 -$11 10-20 12:29
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +103 $74 44¢ $46 -$28 09-28 07:45
will ppi yoy be 6pt8 or more in october No +64 $34 70¢ $45 +$11 10-28 13:33
Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government? No +57 $37 78¢ $44 +$7 10-30 02:55
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +50 $38 84¢ $42 +$4 11-05 18:51
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +43 $33 99¢ $42 +$9 10-13 14:13
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? No +50 $32 84¢ $42 +$10 10-27 07:29
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? Yes +45 $36 91¢ $41 +$5 10-28 04:28
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government? No +75 $48 52¢ $39 -$9 10-28 16:03
will the next fable model 5pt2 debut at a score of at least 1530 by june 30 2027 No +66 $47 57¢ $38 -$9 11-06 02:18
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026? Yes +100 $77 38¢ $38 -$39 11-01 16:45
Government shutdown by December 12? No +50 $30 73¢ $36 +$6 11-04 07:05
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +49 $32 75¢ $36 +$4 11-06 06:51
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government? Yes +75 $29 48¢ $36 +$7 10-28 16:03
Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026? No +50 $29 70¢ $35 +$6 10-28 20:25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections? Yes +42 $27 78¢ $33 +$6 10-29 20:06
Newsom flips Vance for 2028 president by March 31? No +50 $38 66¢ $33 -$6 11-06 01:49