Crafty-Swordfish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

97.8%

Resolved

104

Trades

128

lifetime

Volume

$2.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 11-06 12:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 96% +$1

Other

30% 97% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 6?	No		+12	$12	100¢	$12	$0	11-06 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 60k on march 28	1	$65	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	03-28 06:22
bitcoin above 60k on march 31	1	$65	65	0	+65	Yes	+$0	03-31 04:14
bitcoin above 70k on march 29	1	$65	65	0	+65	No	+$0	03-29 11:07
bitcoin above 64k on march 24	1	$64	64	0	+64	Yes	+$0	03-24 04:52
bitcoin above 64k on march 23	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	03-23 06:08
bitcoin above 76k on march 26	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-26 05:05
bitcoin above 64k on march 27	1	$44	44	0	+44	Yes	+$0	03-27 06:54
bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	2	$36	18	18	+0	Yes	+$0	07-18 03:46
bitcoin above 64k on march 25	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	03-25 02:58
bitcoin above 62k on april 1	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	04-01 05:30
bitcoin above 72k on march 30	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	03-30 11:14
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	2	$32	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-27 08:48
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	04-14 05:23
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	05-19 12:39
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-21 10:26
xrp above 1pt6 on april 2	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-02 09:24
bitcoin above 66k on april 9	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	04-09 05:24
bitcoin above 64k on june 6 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-06 12:58
highest temperature in shanghai on april 11 2026 12corbelow	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	04-10 04:47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-06 10:54
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 40°C or higher on August 9?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	08-08 15:33
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-13 05:39
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 2?	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	09-02 05:48
ethereum above 1700 on july 28 2026	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	07-28 06:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-17 14:24
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on August 12?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	08-11 10:15
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-15 13:03
ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	2	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	07-22 06:09
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$0	05-16 14:14
bitcoin above 70k on april 19	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 04:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 12:01:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 6?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xafd182…
11-05 07:52:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x03ecdc…
11-03 02:33:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa730a7…
11-02 13:15:36	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on November 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca68f7…
10-27 07:42:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xefd60c…
10-23 04:55:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc213c2…
10-22 07:56:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3e697a…
10-20 12:45:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x166fdd…
10-19 09:23:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6c2ed8…
10-14 04:48:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 14?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x142fa4…
10-12 06:23:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 12?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x74dd9d…
09-30 00:19:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x883df1…
09-27 08:48:56	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xe16743…
09-27 05:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0xe34cc8…
09-24 17:54:35	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x2e1b5d…
09-16 04:10:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7bbe77…
09-14 11:38:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x234050…
09-13 15:28:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xe30a30…
09-10 07:32:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 10?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xbb0238…
09-09 15:43:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 9?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xea56c6…
09-08 09:38:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 8?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0xb6f916…
09-04 07:21:04	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb9bdca…
09-02 05:48:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 2?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1a522f…
09-01 04:56:21	bitcoin above 84k on september 1 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x91456b…
08-28 07:58:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xac426e…
08-27 05:18:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 27?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x46c395…
08-20 14:32:45	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfdfda8…
08-17 13:58:37	bitcoin above 68k on august 17 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3c5395…
08-17 02:28:48	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb7cc59…
08-16 05:06:43	2026 Balance of Power: Other	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3306c0…
08-11 10:15:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on August 12?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xaa42de…
08-08 15:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 40°C or higher on August 9?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb67d63…
08-07 03:36:33	bitcoin above 60k on august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xeb23a5…
08-04 04:57:02	bitcoin above 68k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdc7c88…
07-29 14:56:18	ethereum above 1700 on july 29 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x7309e7…
07-28 06:30:55	ethereum above 1700 on july 28 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xfa393f…
07-24 08:37:18	ethereum above 2100 on july 24 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x91e9a9…
07-23 05:15:42	bitcoin above 70k on july 23 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0de0a9…
07-22 06:09:37	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x70cc8a…
07-22 06:09:21	ethereum above 2100 on july 22 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaad4ef…
07-20 04:49:21	ethereum above 1700 on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd79a87…
07-18 03:46:13	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x06738b…
07-17 16:14:21	bitcoin above 56k on july 20 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xf1546a…
07-15 12:42:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc34b2f…
07-12 13:41:10	bitcoin above 68k on july 12 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x72cd46…
07-12 11:35:04	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	SELL	989	0¢	$2	0x0e6f9e…
07-12 11:34:55	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	SELL	900	0¢	$2	0x60a0ad…
07-12 11:30:53	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	SELL	2,111	0¢	$4	0x1601d6…
07-12 11:05:07	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	911	0¢	$2	0xebeaea…
07-12 11:04:46	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x204b69…
07-12 11:03:55	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xf86280…
07-12 10:58:29	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x2be0bb…
07-12 10:47:28	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	700	0¢	$1	0xc59f2d…
07-12 10:47:20	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	800	0¢	$2	0x42744a…
07-12 10:46:13	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xba120e…
07-12 10:38:07	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xbbea58…
07-12 10:25:53	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x2ffd17…
07-12 10:15:37	bitcoin above 66k on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x62a478…
07-07 04:17:59	bitcoin above 58k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xc4b467…
07-04 07:18:20	bitcoin above 58k on july 4 2026	No	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0x44246e…
07-02 08:13:31	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x35efa2…
07-01 08:08:16	bitcoin above 50k on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xbb3c57…
06-27 06:19:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc18409…
06-22 07:49:41	bitcoin above 60k on june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x65c3c0…
06-18 06:43:34	bitcoin above 70k on june 18 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9ea557…
06-17 05:30:16	bitcoin above 60k on june 17 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcee14e…
06-15 13:10:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x234338…
06-13 05:39:51	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb8b74f…
06-10 08:41:52	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xd3c27a…
06-09 04:31:52	ethereum above 1900 on june 9 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf9ab3f…
06-07 16:23:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x79dfe8…
06-06 12:58:54	bitcoin above 64k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xc4668a…
06-04 09:16:09	ethereum above 2000 on june 4 2026	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8a2da8…
06-03 13:31:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2c17cc…
06-02 14:57:01	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe8ffe8…
06-01 08:01:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6fbb0d…
05-30 15:59:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on May 31?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x9eb178…
05-26 15:08:53	Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x1f2e20…
05-24 12:22:58	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd04132…
05-22 11:28:12	Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe7be1c…
05-21 10:26:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xc000a2…
05-19 12:39:48	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x832348…
05-17 14:24:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x89cc03…
05-16 14:14:35	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0xad5aa7…
05-15 13:03:25	Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$23	0x4e60ab…
05-13 17:18:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xc6af16…
05-12 08:38:48	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x79247f…
05-10 18:18:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x99f48d…
05-08 16:33:39	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe3702e…
05-06 10:54:36	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf64819…
04-27 04:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x9c2106…
04-25 00:56:58	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x033891…
04-23 09:24:22	ethereum above 2000 on april 23	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x846680…
04-22 21:50:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x44a40a…
04-22 15:11:38	bitcoin above 76k on april 22	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x7c07a6…
04-21 04:19:54	will threads be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 21	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x34792e…
04-19 04:15:10	bitcoin above 70k on april 19	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xad26ec…
04-18 15:06:10	bitcoin above 78k on april 18	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xd4bbff…
04-15 11:17:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe542ef…
04-14 05:23:49	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x11fcb9…