Hefty-Carol — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$16

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

83.1%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

214 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$262

$1.57K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-19

last 11-04 00:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 62% +$42

Other

11% 80% +$48

Politics

9% 25% -$57

Sports

2% 50% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will manchester city be stripped of a premier league title by june 30 2027	No	+14	$10	72¢	$10	$0	09-30 06:00
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+333	$10	1¢	$5	-$5	05-28 21:16
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+2	$1	70¢	$1	+$0	09-30 06:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	5	$144	85	85	+0	Up	+$24	09-30 05:58
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	3	$130	114	114	+0	Yes	+$50	05-26 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	14	$104	112	87	+25	Up	+$9	05-27 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	11	$80	86	63	+23	Up	+$13	05-27 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	10	$75	51	51	+0	Up	+$5	05-27 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	9	$67	126	126	+0	Down	-$3	05-27 20:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	7	$59	61	61	+0	Up	+$8	05-27 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	11	$56	105	87	+18	Down	-$44	05-28 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	9	$54	88	88	+0	Up	+$4	05-27 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	9	$53	59	59	+0	Up	+$3	05-27 20:08
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	3	$51	64	64	+0	open	—	11-03 23:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	8	$49	593	24	+569	Up	-$21	05-28 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	6	$45	116	34	+83	Up	-$5	05-27 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	8	$43	50	34	+16	Down	+$9	05-26 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	9	$43	57	10	+47	Up	+$10	05-28 20:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	8	$40	74	0	+74	Up	+$34	05-28 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	6	$39	280	280	+0	Up	-$1	05-28 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	4	$32	25	25	+0	Up	+$2	05-28 20:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	3	$31	28	28	+0	Down	+$11	05-28 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	3	$29	20	20	+0	Down	+$9	05-26 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	5	$29	62	38	+24	Down	-$1	05-26 22:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	5	$25	39	39	+0	Up	-$15	05-28 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	3	$25	20	20	+0	Down	+$5	05-27 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	5	$25	60	0	+60	Down	-$25	05-27 18:53
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	05-27 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	4	$18	38	0	+38	Up	-$18	05-27 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	2	$18	50	50	+0	Up	+$8	05-26 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$17	27	17	+10	Down	+$7	05-27 18:48
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	2	$15	441	0	+441	No	-$15	11-03 22:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	2	$11	17	17	+0	Down	+$1	06-03 03:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 00:32:54	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6b46db…
11-04 00:16:46	Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x10a20f…
11-03 23:41:13	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	64	45¢	$29	0x47741b…
11-03 23:41:00	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	154	1¢	$1	0x5ef0ed…
11-03 23:31:37	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xdb7c9a…
11-03 22:30:03	Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0xfaf113…
11-03 22:28:55	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0x908a73…
11-03 22:09:48	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x73da61…
11-03 22:09:36	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	455	1¢	$5	0x9606b1…
11-03 22:08:45	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x9369d2…
11-03 22:08:34	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x14bc2a…
11-03 22:07:28	Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0x5a795c…
11-03 22:07:21	Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x8ff33a…
10-23 15:57:47	Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfd1a82…
10-23 15:56:02	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x4fc168…
09-30 06:00:56	Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x719c36…
09-30 06:00:35	will manchester city be stripped of a premier league title by june 30 2027	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x6fa9db…
09-30 05:59:44	us iran hormuz agreement by october 7	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x2528bc…
09-30 05:59:11	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x4abfe8…
09-30 05:58:44	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x368413…
09-30 05:58:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	Down	SELL	85	98¢	$84	0x2e2f72…
09-30 05:56:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x561cfc…
09-30 05:56:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x667bd5…
09-30 05:55:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x76d5f5…
09-30 05:54:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1bb5f0…
06-29 20:44:56	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	39	10¢	$4	0x663060…
06-29 20:44:52	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x29e562…
06-29 20:44:38	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x43f16d…
06-29 20:44:35	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0x5020bb…
06-29 20:44:29	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0xf146a4…
06-29 20:44:26	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x416bab…
06-03 03:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	17	32¢	$6	0xf50484…
06-03 03:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc1194b…
05-28 21:16:15	Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0x793a38…
05-28 21:16:01	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x6da6ca…
05-28 21:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	263	3¢	$8	0x766e20…
05-28 21:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x62b76b…
05-28 21:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xfbdc57…
05-28 21:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	17	62¢	$11	0x7ff5f9…
05-28 21:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xe7e907…
05-28 21:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x06c843…
05-28 21:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xcfee31…
05-28 21:07:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xf6933a…
05-28 21:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x7dfc8a…
05-28 21:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x09e6da…
05-28 21:06:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x535591…
05-28 21:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	24	60¢	$14	0xa01702…
05-28 21:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xbcdf91…
05-28 21:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xe7cd18…
05-28 21:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	SELL	28	76¢	$21	0xa3af29…
05-28 21:03:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x972459…
05-28 21:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xee9907…
05-28 20:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	25	66¢	$17	0xa1ce40…
05-28 20:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x7b7999…
05-28 20:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x779b26…
05-28 20:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x7412aa…
05-28 20:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	87	6¢	$6	0x60bb9a…
05-28 20:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3b664e…
05-28 20:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x6b486c…
05-28 20:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x03b5f2…
05-28 20:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xbc524f…
05-28 20:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xffd57c…
05-28 20:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xeb9dfd…
05-28 20:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x90bb54…
05-28 20:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd018ce…
05-28 20:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xfc763b…
05-28 20:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x337d7c…
05-28 20:27:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xbf6476…
05-28 20:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd8618b…
05-28 20:26:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb2b015…
05-28 20:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x37525f…
05-28 20:25:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x6110a2…
05-28 20:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x0e1691…
05-28 20:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x74417a…
05-28 20:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd09364…
05-28 20:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2cd363…
05-28 20:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xbeea5f…
05-28 20:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x5cfbd4…
05-28 20:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x2e05fd…
05-28 20:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xb73bb9…
05-28 20:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xed120e…
05-28 20:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xe363fd…
05-28 20:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0a8a01…
05-28 20:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xc3494b…
05-28 20:18:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	SELL	39	14¢	$5	0x569031…
05-28 20:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x1f7578…
05-28 20:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf48f68…
05-28 20:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xba88f8…
05-28 20:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb7e055…
05-27 20:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf4a2a2…
05-27 20:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x2c3b19…
05-27 20:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x32920f…
05-27 20:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0xa79e5c…
05-27 20:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x5e1352…
05-27 20:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0x404725…
05-27 20:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xeba9d8…
05-27 20:41:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x7900b7…
05-27 20:41:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x74448f…
05-27 20:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xfef23d…
05-27 20:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x0ba0a2…