Frivolous-Walnut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$25

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$396

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 09-25 21:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 92% +$31

Other

0% 82% $0

Politics

0% 80% $0

Tech

0% 0% -$6

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No		-6	-$6	96¢	$-6	+$0	09-25 21:50
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		-4	-$4	99¢	$-4	$0	08-15 10:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 64k on march 22	32	$18.1K	9,073	9,073	+0	Yes	+$7	03-22 02:57
bitcoin above 62k on march 20	4	$6.8K	3,389	3,384	+5	Yes	+$0	03-19 06:54
bitcoin above 62k on march 21	2	$2.7K	1,377	1,377	+0	Yes	+$1	03-20 03:20
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	11	$2.7K	2,534	159	+2,375	Yes	+$15	03-18 08:33
bitcoin above 64k on march 20	3	$2.0K	2,008	0	+2,008	Yes	+$6	03-20 01:05
bitcoin above 66k on march 20	1	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	Yes	+$5	03-20 10:11
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	2	$11	8	8	+0	No	+$0	03-02 08:05
will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	1	$6	8	0	+8	Yes	-$6	02-27 09:14
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	1	$6	0	6	-6	open	—	09-25 21:50
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$0	03-31 03:24
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-16 00:45
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	02-14 13:59
will bitcoin dip to 64k on march 22	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	03-22 05:31
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	03-19 04:00
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	1	$5	0	6	-6	No	-$1	06-16 17:12
will the total number of tsa passengers for february 9 be greater than 1900000	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	02-07 09:50
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	-$4	04-18 05:18
bitcoin up or down on march 1	1	$4	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	03-01 08:19
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$4	0	4	-4	open	—	08-15 10:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	04-20 02:34
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$1	04-23 02:43
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-08 02:45
will bitcoin dip to 68000 on march 5	1	$3	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-06 01:25
grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	02-16 05:18
will kanye release bully by march 20	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	03-14 02:33
will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	2	$3	2	1	+1	No	+$0	03-26 07:40
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	2	$3	3	1	+2	No	+$0	03-28 00:58
will xrp dip to 1pt2 in march 2026	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	03-30 05:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$3	2	1	+1	Yes	-$1	04-05 19:09
will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	04-12 13:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 21:50:54	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xebd8b5…
08-15 10:24:18	Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xbc839b…
07-24 15:29:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x337fc6…
06-16 17:12:53	Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0xd38ae0…
05-16 00:45:54	Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x179f29…
05-14 05:14:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x8eef80…
04-23 02:43:20	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xaded0f…
04-20 02:34:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xeeeea8…
04-18 05:18:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$4	0xacba74…
04-12 13:03:29	will jason day win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x397709…
04-05 19:09:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf4eb20…
04-01 13:46:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x568722…
03-31 03:24:53	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x642c84…
03-30 05:23:34	will xrp dip to 1pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x4189cf…
03-28 00:58:45	will polymarket mindshare hit 90	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7c5fa8…
03-26 07:40:37	will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x89f5f2…
03-22 05:31:11	will bitcoin dip to 64k on march 22	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x57fddd…
03-22 02:57:25	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	2,786	100¢	$2,781	0xac1fb0…
03-22 02:52:17	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9ea548…
03-22 02:52:15	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xc92d1e…
03-22 02:52:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xa8f592…
03-22 02:52:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4a34de…
03-22 02:44:59	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0xb0cc54…
03-22 02:42:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0x8b8a0e…
03-22 00:14:39	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x822344…
03-22 00:12:51	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x32d549…
03-21 13:46:15	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x2c4a0f…
03-21 13:39:29	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7fa1e1…
03-21 13:17:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x144ed2…
03-21 13:10:57	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa36ecf…
03-21 12:57:31	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9068be…
03-21 12:57:19	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdcc67f…
03-21 12:55:57	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5d9af5…
03-21 12:49:15	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf63d77…
03-21 12:48:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x3e4fc7…
03-21 04:38:53	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xcae313…
03-21 04:38:51	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xcc7dee…
03-21 04:38:51	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	104	100¢	$103	0x195ae9…
03-21 04:38:41	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	105	100¢	$104	0xe1e499…
03-21 04:32:53	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	3,401	100¢	$3,394	0x16c59b…
03-21 03:10:23	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	594	100¢	$592	0x581503…
03-21 03:09:59	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	1,045	100¢	$1,041	0xb27706…
03-21 03:07:15	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	1,536	100¢	$1,530	0x31b58c…
03-21 03:06:23	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8e560e…
03-21 02:56:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	3,182	100¢	$3,169	0xbfd3e5…
03-21 02:37:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	SELL	2,290	100¢	$2,278	0x38fca3…
03-21 02:33:21	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	990	99¢	$983	0x941e8d…
03-21 02:33:17	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x1a542a…
03-21 02:33:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 22	Yes	BUY	1,277	99¢	$1,268	0x79c3a2…
03-20 10:11:01	bitcoin above 66k on march 20	Yes	BUY	1,300	100¢	$1,295	0xf78f02…
03-20 03:20:33	bitcoin above 62k on march 21	Yes	SELL	1,377	100¢	$1,374	0x8f9e7a…
03-20 02:52:53	bitcoin above 62k on march 21	Yes	BUY	1,377	100¢	$1,373	0x5453ed…
03-20 01:05:07	bitcoin above 64k on march 20	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x34daae…
03-20 00:45:49	bitcoin above 64k on march 20	Yes	BUY	1,667	100¢	$1,662	0x3a6bc0…
03-20 00:35:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 20	Yes	BUY	340	100¢	$339	0x8a92ba…
03-19 06:54:51	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	SELL	1,681	100¢	$1,678	0x08f7f6…
03-19 06:53:51	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	SELL	1,703	100¢	$1,700	0x2cc3d8…
03-19 05:03:07	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	BUY	2,089	100¢	$2,085	0x2c45ad…
03-19 05:02:51	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	BUY	1,300	100¢	$1,297	0x48e7a4…
03-19 04:00:01	Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x955434…
03-18 08:33:01	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	SELL	159	99¢	$158	0x05ea84…
03-18 08:04:29	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xc7832f…
03-18 08:01:09	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xb9a22f…
03-18 08:00:01	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	181	99¢	$180	0x1dc2d9…
03-18 07:51:55	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	159	99¢	$158	0x22a099…
03-18 07:49:37	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x276ce7…
03-18 07:43:31	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xe8e849…
03-18 06:45:27	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x965aec…
03-18 06:43:35	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	525	99¢	$522	0x8ee039…
03-18 06:41:21	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	675	99¢	$671	0xc28cf8…
03-18 06:34:27	bitcoin above 70k on march 18	Yes	BUY	575	99¢	$572	0x74d03c…
03-16 13:14:43	will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x723c2e…
03-15 03:48:57	kraken ipo by march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x12d0b2…
03-14 02:33:45	will kanye release bully by march 20	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x5eec96…
03-13 05:59:37	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcd882c…
03-12 03:45:59	will polymarket mindshare hit 90	No	BUY	3	94¢	$2	0x437c8e…
03-08 02:45:15	Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x53a843…
03-06 01:25:47	will bitcoin dip to 68000 on march 5	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0x7816fc…
03-02 08:05:43	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xf3172e…
03-01 08:19:27	bitcoin up or down on march 1	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$4	0x361cd4…
02-27 09:14:41	will pete hegseth ban claude by march 31	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x39cab2…
02-17 18:46:55	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	No	BUY	8	73¢	$5	0x2ad6bb…
02-16 05:18:49	grok 4pt20 released by february 28 844	Yes	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0xa17f2a…
02-14 13:59:39	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3b88ed…
02-07 09:50:29	will the total number of tsa passengers for february 9 be greater than 1900000	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$4	0x9d5606…