Cluttered-Sphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$69

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,501

lifetime

Volume

$261.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$174

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-10 17:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

61% 100% +$34

Other

29% 100% +$3

Tech

4% — —

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

1% 100% +$33

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$7.0K	4,141	4,141	+0	open	—	04-02 01:21
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$6.9K	6,912	0	+6,912	open	—	04-30 20:22
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	3	$6.4K	4,700	1,700	+3,000	open	—	04-15 16:43
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	32	$6.3K	5,602	5,679	-77	open	—	02-12 17:09
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	2	$6.0K	6,013	0	+6,013	open	—	06-18 20:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$6.0K	6,112	0	+6,112	open	—	06-16 04:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-28 12:52
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	14	$5.5K	2,765	2,765	+0	open	—	02-19 01:39
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$5.3K	5,282	0	+5,282	open	—	07-22 09:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$5.1K	5,081	812	+4,269	open	—	04-09 01:11
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	10	$4.7K	7,024	571	+6,453	open	—	02-12 04:08
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	24	$4.5K	3,058	3,058	+0	open	—	02-12 00:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-23 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$3.9K	3,962	0	+3,962	open	—	04-08 14:18
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 18 2026	8	$3.8K	1,989	1,789	+200	open	—	03-19 01:20
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	2	$3.7K	3,710	0	+3,710	open	—	04-19 13:40
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$3.4K	3,443	0	+3,443	open	—	04-14 15:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$3.1K	1,574	1,574	+0	open	—	04-23 18:10
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 18 2026 626	10	$3.0K	3,034	0	+3,034	open	—	03-18 00:28
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$3.0K	3,013	0	+3,013	Yes	+$3	05-03 20:27
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	24	$2.8K	2,493	820	+1,672	No	+$33	03-19 20:55
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	7	$2.7K	2,111	844	+1,267	open	—	02-14 13:18
will israel strike gaza on february 17 2026	1	$2.5K	2,505	0	+2,505	open	—	02-17 11:01
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$2.5K	2,489	0	+2,489	open	—	02-14 03:52
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 19 2026	3	$2.4K	1,429	1,005	+424	open	—	03-19 16:04
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	16	$2.3K	1,832	542	+1,290	open	—	02-22 14:58
will solv energy incs market cap be less than 3pt8b at market close on ipo day	14	$2.3K	1,503	1,503	+0	open	—	02-12 01:15
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?	3	$2.3K	2,295	0	+2,295	open	—	04-04 10:03
will donald trump attend super bowl lx	8	$2.2K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	02-09 00:06
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	1	$2.2K	2,252	0	+2,252	open	—	04-20 13:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xcac203…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0xb40af6…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x87d849…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0x22f2a4…
08-10 17:21:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x409763…
08-10 16:13:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	500	88¢	$440	0x6ec456…
08-10 15:49:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x237a0f…
08-09 02:00:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	462	84¢	$388	0x0b8b3b…
08-09 01:31:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3d86f8…
08-09 01:26:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xd739ac…
08-09 01:12:39	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xfae27e…
08-09 00:50:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	72	87¢	$63	0x1130a0…
08-09 00:37:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xa585f0…
08-08 23:44:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	120	87¢	$104	0x42a35c…
08-08 23:44:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x988896…
08-04 13:54:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2,820	40¢	$1,124	0x361248…
08-02 23:08:17	grok web outage by december 31 2026 20260728191715774	Yes	BUY	123	84¢	$103	0x4b4fac…
08-02 08:54:29	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	46	93¢	$43	0x180f81…
08-02 05:41:54	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x2307fe…
08-02 02:37:03	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xbca456…
07-22 09:25:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,282	100¢	$2,280	0xda202b…
07-20 12:32:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,979	0x1eb0ab…
07-04 17:08:25	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	82	89¢	$73	0x96a323…
07-02 04:13:25	empire state couple charged by july 4 20260701175724247	Yes	BUY	275	93¢	$255	0x508822…
06-20 01:38:43	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0x7b27d3…
06-20 01:38:05	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	426	15¢	$64	0x17c6f8…
06-18 20:06:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x728941…
06-18 20:05:46	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	6,006	100¢	$6,000	0x26fafb…
06-18 02:21:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	239	44¢	$105	0x008a91…
06-16 04:13:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,312	98¢	$2,266	0x7cba48…
06-16 03:47:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,198	98¢	$1,172	0x7e41d1…
06-16 03:42:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x902c1c…
06-16 03:41:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,023	98¢	$1,003	0xa7bbc1…
06-16 03:32:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4eb981…
06-16 03:32:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x0c36c8…
06-16 03:32:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,500	98¢	$1,468	0x8f57e4…
06-16 03:31:39	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	101	15¢	$15	0x6fe437…
06-16 03:30:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	2,000	15¢	$300	0x61fa5a…
06-09 21:09:03	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	53	5¢	$3	0xf12669…
06-09 21:08:42	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xed5108…
06-04 02:50:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x01c00a…
06-04 02:50:31	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x468d27…
05-27 19:13:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	70	87¢	$61	0xdc976e…
05-27 19:13:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xcc4531…
05-23 12:48:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	258	30¢	$78	0xf2f984…
05-22 21:25:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	152	33¢	$50	0x360d0d…
05-22 21:25:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	107	28¢	$30	0x38608e…
05-20 02:25:50	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	SELL	525	9¢	$49	0x3db8b7…
05-17 03:42:59	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	62	33¢	$20	0x16d84b…
05-17 03:42:28	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	336	32¢	$107	0x22f8eb…
05-17 03:42:17	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	127	30¢	$38	0x0a7b7d…
05-16 01:55:12	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xecd4fd…
05-15 03:01:48	Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xed6b9e…
05-14 23:42:53	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x822d6d…
05-14 23:38:59	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x6258ac…
05-14 23:33:37	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	SELL	19	75¢	$14	0x3be574…
05-12 21:16:35	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xe661e6…
05-12 20:13:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	67	96¢	$65	0x15bcbc…
05-12 19:27:35	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$474	0x6bc7ce…
05-12 14:41:12	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xe4df85…
05-12 14:41:01	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xada34d…
05-12 14:40:54	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xf3c98e…
05-12 14:40:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	72	89¢	$64	0xb38a01…
05-12 14:40:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x304763…
05-12 14:40:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x0b6bca…
05-12 14:39:58	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	102	89¢	$91	0xa03616…
05-12 14:39:57	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa0b240…
05-12 14:39:44	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x4348f3…
05-08 10:24:01	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x67e671…
05-08 04:15:24	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	99	74¢	$73	0xf378f8…
05-07 17:44:40	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xd0ff66…
05-07 17:37:16	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	248	94¢	$234	0xdebe94…
05-07 14:26:24	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xc66962…
05-03 20:27:08	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3,013	100¢	$3,010	0xb40e8a…
04-30 22:05:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	18	81¢	$15	0xaf43d1…
04-30 20:22:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x61d512…
04-30 20:22:16	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	2,510	100¢	$2,500	0x259304…
04-30 20:12:04	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0xbd5f63…
04-30 00:49:36	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	502	100¢	$500	0xe1c85f…
04-30 00:49:08	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	594	100¢	$593	0xc55c78…
04-30 00:48:00	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	3,700	100¢	$3,689	0x2e580d…
04-28 12:52:28	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	3,000	100¢	$2,994	0xa623c6…
04-27 22:46:54	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	3,000	100¢	$2,991	0x1b239f…
04-23 18:10:24	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1,574	100¢	$1,573	0x53eda1…
04-23 18:10:10	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	SELL	1,574	100¢	$1,573	0x525d09…
04-23 18:09:46	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,008	100¢	$1,998	0xe2cbbc…
04-23 18:09:38	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x8f22e4…
04-23 18:09:26	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbfbab4…
04-22 14:44:08	Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x1fd684…
04-22 14:43:56	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xaa4f6c…
04-21 18:21:04	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x3d5919…
04-21 18:15:20	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	1,574	100¢	$1,573	0x220844…
04-21 18:00:52	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x7fdea2…
04-21 18:00:34	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xe7ef66…
04-20 13:54:08	will progressive bulgaria pb win 95 or more seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1,493	100¢	$1,492	0x0737ea…
04-20 13:42:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	200	31¢	$62	0xd7b352…
04-20 13:40:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x4a22fc…
04-20 13:38:50	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	No	BUY	2,252	100¢	$2,248	0x87bd88…
04-20 00:54:28	will usa be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xed6a8e…
04-20 00:54:08	will usa be said during the cs iem rio 2026 grand final	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x657760…