Cluttered-Sphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.34K

Unrealized P&L

+$96

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

409

Trades

1,604

lifetime

Volume

$280.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$175

Open exposure

$1.46K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-04 02:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Politics

58% 84% +$677

Other

32% 79% +$1,702

Tech

4% 81% +$189

Sports

4% 93% +$1,894

Crypto

1% 100% +$43

Pop-Culture

1% 33% -$161

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+1,022	$875	98¢	$1.0K	+$127	05-12 10:43
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	+368	$240	72¢	$267	+$27	11-01 00:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+200	$142	81¢	$162	+$20	09-09 14:33
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	+1,022	$153	2¢	$20	-$133	06-16 03:31
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	-426	-$64	2¢	$-7	+$57	06-20 01:38
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Yes	+11	$3	10¢	$1	-$1	05-08 12:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	23	$7.0K	4,141	4,141	+0	No	+$78	04-02 01:21
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	5	$6.9K	6,912	0	+6,912	No	+$24	04-30 20:22
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	3	$6.4K	4,700	1,700	+3,000	Yes	+$4	04-15 16:43
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	32	$6.3K	5,602	5,679	-77	Yes	-$201	02-12 17:09
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	2	$6.0K	6,013	0	+6,013	Yes	+$6	06-18 20:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	7	$6.0K	6,112	0	+6,112	Yes	+$125	06-16 04:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$3	04-28 12:52
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	14	$5.5K	2,765	2,765	+0	No	+$24	02-19 01:39
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$5.3K	5,282	0	+5,282	Yes	+$23	07-22 09:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$5.1K	5,081	812	+4,269	Yes	-$775	04-09 01:11
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on february 11	10	$4.7K	7,024	571	+6,453	Yes	-$298	02-12 04:08
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	24	$4.5K	3,058	3,058	+0	Yes	+$1,598	02-12 00:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$12	04-23 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$3.9K	3,962	0	+3,962	Yes	+$25	04-08 14:18
will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 18 2026	8	$3.8K	1,989	1,789	+200	Yes	+$5	03-19 01:20
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	2	$3.7K	3,710	0	+3,710	Yes	+$4	04-19 13:40
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$3.4K	3,443	0	+3,443	Yes	+$40	04-14 15:01
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	15	$3.3K	5,144	3,101	+2,043	open	—	06-16 03:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$3.2K	2,820	2,820	+0	open	—	09-06 21:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$3.1K	1,574	1,574	+0	Yes	+$0	04-23 18:10
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 18 2026 626	10	$3.0K	3,034	0	+3,034	Yes	+$19	03-18 00:28
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$3.0K	3,013	0	+3,013	Yes	+$3	05-03 20:27
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	24	$2.8K	2,493	820	+1,672	No	+$33	03-19 20:55
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	7	$2.7K	2,111	844	+1,267	Yes	+$37	02-14 13:18
will israel strike gaza on february 17 2026	1	$2.5K	2,505	0	+2,505	Yes	+$5	02-17 11:01
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	1	$2.5K	2,489	0	+2,489	No	+$2	02-14 03:52
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 19 2026	3	$2.4K	1,429	1,005	+424	Yes	$0	03-19 16:04
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	16	$2.3K	1,832	542	+1,290	No	+$30	02-22 14:58
will solv energy incs market cap be less than 3pt8b at market close on ipo day	14	$2.3K	1,503	1,503	+0	No	-$168	02-12 01:15
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?	3	$2.3K	2,295	0	+2,295	No	+$2	04-04 10:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 02:31:51	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Yes	SELL	712	8¢	$58	0x7f3cec…
11-01 07:33:22	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x255966…
11-01 07:23:48	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	201	99¢	$199	0x006eeb…
11-01 00:56:07	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	68	64¢	$44	0x7466b8…
11-01 00:47:54	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Yes	SELL	340	11¢	$37	0x38487a…
10-30 20:16:12	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Yes	BUY	526	25¢	$131	0x75ece4…
10-30 06:24:24	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	150	64¢	$96	0x147084…
10-30 05:16:57	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Yes	BUY	526	86¢	$453	0x6623a5…
10-25 23:43:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	839	97¢	$812	0x0c7554…
10-25 23:43:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xc8eddd…
10-25 23:43:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x5bc33b…
10-25 23:42:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xcdd9e4…
10-25 23:42:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xb8bc8b…
10-25 23:41:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	72	97¢	$70	0x0dc3d6…
10-25 23:40:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	314	95¢	$300	0xe7d0f3…
10-25 23:40:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	524	95¢	$500	0x72d6e8…
10-25 23:40:18	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	SELL	890	99¢	$879	0x49d760…
10-23 19:51:50	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0xd2dc21…
10-23 19:51:42	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,502	100¢	$1,500	0xc7936e…
10-19 22:06:27	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	SELL	782	99¢	$774	0xd7c451…
10-19 05:13:20	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	BUY	762	87¢	$663	0x21ed53…
10-19 05:08:57	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	BUY	128	87¢	$111	0x398f72…
10-19 04:24:09	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	404	99¢	$400	0xec7da3…
10-19 04:23:23	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	378	99¢	$373	0xc4724d…
10-17 22:43:32	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x09729f…
10-17 21:23:00	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xd21eef…
10-15 14:12:40	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	BUY	155	27¢	$42	0xdc60ef…
10-15 13:39:55	Daniel Dubois vs. Fabio Wardley	Daniel Dubois	BUY	171	76¢	$130	0x0f50d4…
10-15 02:52:22	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	199	26¢	$52	0x579cce…
09-09 14:33:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xdd8900…
09-06 21:30:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2,820	74¢	$2,087	0x0d5d63…
09-05 04:42:37	Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x8d2af3…
09-05 04:27:13	Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf3cdec…
09-05 03:49:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdd47ce…
09-05 03:32:43	Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	479	100¢	$477	0xa8ec4d…
08-31 15:25:24	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	2¢	$6	0xabae9c…
08-30 22:48:03	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	39¢	$71	0x6ed38f…
08-30 19:58:36	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	39¢	$28	0x054b60…
08-30 17:50:55	Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	63¢	$63	0xd42d79…
08-30 17:39:18	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	382	19¢	$73	0xe79ac3…
08-30 17:35:42	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	16¢	$13	0x47ea83…
08-30 17:26:45	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	16¢	$7	0x2d9eb6…
08-30 16:42:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	No	SELL	87	100¢	$87	0x076579…
08-30 16:38:48	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?	No	BUY	513	99¢	$507	0x6f4c4b…
08-29 20:11:39	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,019	10¢	$103	0xe5178e…
08-12 21:01:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0xbfcd8f…
08-12 18:31:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	106	21¢	$22	0x7f6d95…
08-12 18:30:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	SELL	800	61¢	$490	0xa42393…
08-12 15:40:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0xd2bd2b…
08-12 15:17:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x8ecbea…
08-12 15:17:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x4779ec…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0xcac203…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0xb40af6…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x87d849…
08-10 17:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0x22f2a4…
08-10 17:21:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x409763…
08-10 16:13:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	500	88¢	$440	0x6ec456…
08-10 15:49:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x237a0f…
08-09 02:00:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	462	84¢	$388	0x0b8b3b…
08-09 01:31:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x3d86f8…
08-09 01:26:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xd739ac…
08-09 01:12:39	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xfae27e…
08-09 00:50:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	72	87¢	$63	0x1130a0…
08-09 00:37:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xa585f0…
08-08 23:44:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	120	87¢	$104	0x42a35c…
08-08 23:44:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 15 20260807213124704	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x988896…
08-04 13:54:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2,820	40¢	$1,124	0x361248…
08-02 23:08:17	grok web outage by december 31 2026 20260728191715774	Yes	BUY	123	84¢	$103	0x4b4fac…
08-02 08:54:29	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	46	93¢	$43	0x180f81…
08-02 05:41:54	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x2307fe…
08-02 02:37:03	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xbca456…
07-28 15:39:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	801	100¢	$800	0x907bb9…
07-28 15:38:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	503	100¢	$500	0x8a1798…
07-22 09:25:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	2,282	100¢	$2,280	0xda202b…
07-20 12:32:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,000	99¢	$2,979	0x1eb0ab…
07-04 17:08:25	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	82	89¢	$73	0x96a323…
07-02 04:13:25	empire state couple charged by july 4 20260701175724247	Yes	BUY	275	93¢	$255	0x508822…
06-20 01:38:43	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0x7b27d3…
06-20 01:38:05	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	426	15¢	$64	0x17c6f8…
06-18 20:06:56	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x728941…
06-18 20:05:46	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	6,006	100¢	$6,000	0x26fafb…
06-18 02:21:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	239	44¢	$105	0x008a91…
06-16 04:13:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	2,312	98¢	$2,266	0x7cba48…
06-16 03:47:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,198	98¢	$1,172	0x7e41d1…
06-16 03:42:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x902c1c…
06-16 03:41:46	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcb2718…
06-16 03:41:33	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$18	0x13a702…
06-16 03:41:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,023	98¢	$1,003	0xa7bbc1…
06-16 03:32:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4eb981…
06-16 03:32:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x0c36c8…
06-16 03:32:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,500	98¢	$1,468	0x8f57e4…
06-16 03:31:39	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	101	15¢	$15	0x6fe437…
06-16 03:30:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	2,000	15¢	$300	0x61fa5a…
06-09 21:09:03	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	53	5¢	$3	0xf12669…
06-09 21:08:42	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xed5108…
06-04 02:50:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0x01c00a…
06-04 02:50:31	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x468d27…
05-29 16:30:43	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	877	53¢	$462	0x836b77…
05-27 19:13:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	70	87¢	$61	0xdc976e…
05-27 19:13:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xcc4531…