Lively-Moai — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$403

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 06-18 02:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Crypto

34% 73% +$4

Other

12% 0% $-6

Sports

4% 25% $-8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	6	$35	28	28	+0	Up	+$5	05-09 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	5	$28	23	17	+6	Up	+$4	05-09 08:18
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-13 11:15
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	2	$19	23	0	+23	open	—	06-11 00:18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	2	$17	23	0	+23	open	—	06-01 07:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	1	$15	19	0	+19	open	—	05-26 10:06
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	1	$15	22	0	+22	open	—	05-30 10:21
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	05-31 12:14
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	2	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	06-09 01:18
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	05-28 05:57
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$14	16	0	+16	open	—	05-30 11:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-05 07:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	05-05 12:47
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	06-04 07:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-09 01:16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-28 05:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	1	$9	11	0	+11	open	—	06-01 07:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	05-28 06:55
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$8	12	0	+12	open	—	06-18 02:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	05-02 00:49
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	7	$7	7	3	+4	No	$-5	05-05 22:25
Lakers vs. Thunder	3	$7	53	0	+53	Thunder	$-7	05-05 10:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	06-04 07:38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-26 02:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$7	10	10	+0	Up	$-3	05-09 08:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	+$4	05-09 09:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Up	$-5	05-05 07:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-02 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-09 08:31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-26 02:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 02:08:11	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Max Holloway	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x6dad20…
06-11 00:18:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x6556a6…
06-09 01:18:06	trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	No	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0x2e04bb…
06-09 01:17:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x95f6eb…
06-09 01:16:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xa0b2d8…
06-04 07:38:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xf194da…
06-04 07:37:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x9a2a30…
06-04 07:37:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf5220d…
06-01 07:35:27	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x4b691d…
06-01 07:33:49	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3100e7…
06-01 07:30:28	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	19	78¢	$15	0x3f8f97…
05-31 12:15:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x8b74d0…
05-31 12:14:56	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xc701fe…
05-30 11:07:45	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	16	88¢	$14	0xc12ab6…
05-30 10:21:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x34a017…
05-28 06:55:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x1ff157…
05-28 05:57:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xec639c…
05-28 05:57:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb13adc…
05-26 10:06:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x50ec43…
05-26 02:35:18	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0x6ae172…
05-26 02:29:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xe08a0a…
05-20 10:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xbda0c1…
05-20 09:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x260497…
05-20 09:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa55b04…
05-20 09:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x7703e8…
05-20 09:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x62f7b4…
05-20 09:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x663499…
05-20 09:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x5f90d2…
05-20 09:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xe13ef0…
05-20 09:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x02baca…
05-20 08:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xcf8579…
05-20 08:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xaa67d1…
05-20 08:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4a0974…
05-20 08:47:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe84f03…
05-13 11:15:44	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xebcd80…
05-13 07:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x1d5dad…
05-13 07:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x860897…
05-13 07:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xac2832…
05-12 13:37:42	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9d1494…
05-11 22:04:13	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xa042d4…
05-11 06:46:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xce1145…
05-09 11:48:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x0f1347…
05-09 09:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0240b0…
05-09 08:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xf424cd…
05-09 08:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x77cc1e…
05-09 08:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xdbee76…
05-09 08:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1eefee…
05-09 08:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	9	74¢	$6	0x5eabfe…
05-09 08:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2dbb85…
05-09 08:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0xb15a2c…
05-09 08:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfee207…
05-09 07:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0x237dcd…
05-09 07:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xfc8c6c…
05-09 07:52:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0xac70d7…
05-09 07:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x48309b…
05-09 07:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0xd48d0b…
05-09 07:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x90f48d…
05-05 22:34:48	Will JD Vance say "Fight" in Des Moines?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf6cc11…
05-05 22:25:56	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x78e0b0…
05-05 22:25:52	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb5b2a4…
05-05 22:22:20	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x51eebc…
05-05 22:22:08	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xd1d1ab…
05-05 22:07:02	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xfc8ec9…
05-05 22:06:50	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd7b2f8…
05-05 22:06:46	Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x8d3357…
05-05 12:47:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x49880e…
05-05 12:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xce5b7d…
05-05 10:40:34	Timberwolves vs. Spurs	Timberwolves	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa47b58…
05-05 10:40:28	76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8f645e…
05-05 10:15:32	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2a3252…
05-05 10:14:14	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7cd0bc…
05-05 10:14:10	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0a11d0…
05-05 07:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0xfed28d…
05-05 07:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x776c79…
05-05 07:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x8c5780…
05-05 07:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xc3c642…
05-05 07:19:34	Lakers vs. Thunder	Lakers	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x08cf70…
05-02 01:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 2?	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf402e5…
05-02 00:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x716466…
05-02 00:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x0ca995…
05-02 00:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x6bca91…
04-28 09:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	28	6¢	$2	0x54623b…
04-28 09:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5d75d2…
04-28 09:01:52	arg ros tig 2026 03 06 ros	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xbe896c…
04-28 09:01:44	arg bar ban 2026 03 06 draw	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x983dc2…
04-28 09:01:34	arg bar ban 2026 03 06 ban	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xfff0a1…
04-28 04:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x67ff6d…
04-28 03:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd0557e…
04-28 03:48:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa41bfd…
04-28 03:38:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8174ab…
04-27 23:58:34	Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-06?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7e77f4…
04-27 23:46:50	arg cac boc 2026 03 08 cac	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x663145…
04-27 23:45:54	arg ros tig 2026 03 06 ros	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdf45ab…
04-27 23:44:54	Will Lillestrøm SK vs. Kristiansund BK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x80b3ca…
04-27 23:43:30	arg cac boc 2026 03 08 cac	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb3418c…
04-27 23:41:12	arg cac boc 2026 03 08 draw	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x899c26…
04-27 23:38:30	arg uni tal 2026 03 06 uni	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb65871…
04-27 23:38:10	arg bar ban 2026 03 06 ban	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x22be1b…
04-27 23:35:44	arg bar ban 2026 03 06 draw	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x502936…