Cloudy-Leaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$53.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$864

Hit rate

64.1%

Resolved

1,426

Trades

7,258

lifetime

Volume

$4.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$657

Open exposure

$7.33K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 08:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Other

75% 51% -$20,671

Crypto

12% 57% +$10,271

Politics

11% 34% -$38,684

Sports

2% 39% -$4,479

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+6,063	$6,617	95¢	$5.8K	-$858	10-17 18:33
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+1,107	$1,018	92¢	$1.0K	-$6	10-28 08:53
iran oman hormuz agreement by november 30	No	+487	$356	83¢	$404	+$49	10-14 17:07
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	-41	-$18	92¢	$-38	-$20	04-29 08:33
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	No	-36	-$29	96¢	$-34	-$6	04-29 08:33
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	+30	$40	96¢	$29	-$11	08-03 14:52
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?	No	-25	-$14	96¢	$-24	-$10	04-29 08:33
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	-26	-$21	93¢	$-24	-$3	04-29 08:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	50	$70.1K	50,201	50,201	+0	No	+$1,346	05-27 19:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	51	$54.4K	47,380	47,380	+0	open	—	07-06 21:02
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	39	$49.1K	35,922	35,922	+0	No	+$9,919	01-03 16:45
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	25	$40.8K	24,119	24,119	+0	No	+$241	05-19 19:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	53	$39.9K	34,308	29,308	+5,000	Yes	-$1,862	03-02 20:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$39.2K	29,087	29,087	+0	No	-$30	08-28 14:03
epl tot bri 2026 04 18 bri	23	$37.9K	23,187	23,122	+65	No	+$8,295	04-18 18:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	45	$35.4K	30,671	25,660	+5,011	Yes	+$5,994	04-07 09:30
arg riv boc 2026 04 19 total 1pt5	54	$32.1K	20,604	20,589	+15	Under	+$8,703	04-19 22:09
epl bur mun 2026 01 07 mun	13	$29.2K	18,845	18,845	+0	No	+$6,626	01-07 22:11
atp royer rodiono 2026 04 15	26	$29.1K	23,369	19,916	+3,454	Valentin Royer	+$647	04-15 19:02
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	38	$27.7K	22,446	22,446	+0	Yes	+$2,098	02-28 07:50
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	59	$27.7K	19,931	17,549	+2,382	No	+$4,597	07-25 10:59
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	19	$26.3K	24,905	14,813	+10,091	Yes	+$3,370	07-12 13:12
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	75	$26.3K	20,567	20,622	-55	No	+$5,733	03-17 07:28
atp mensik dimitro 2026 07 02	7	$26.2K	26,762	21,429	+5,333	Grigor Dimitrov	+$2,587	07-02 20:10
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in june 2026	25	$25.8K	15,745	15,745	+0	No	+$506	06-21 01:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	8	$25.8K	17,764	17,764	+0	No	+$976	04-22 20:33
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	24	$25.6K	14,723	14,723	+0	No	+$867	05-15 15:35
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	23	$24.4K	45,222	45,222	+0	Yes	-$6,428	04-04 06:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	29	$24.3K	26,345	28,359	-2,014	Yes	+$998	01-26 01:39
atp rocha sakamot 2026 04 16	22	$23.6K	14,745	14,745	+0	Henrique Rocha	+$5,883	04-16 17:05
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima	5	$23.1K	15,114	15,114	+0	Brandon Nakashima	+$2,104	05-28 21:24
spl nsr qad 2026 01 08 qad	105	$22.8K	15,500	15,500	+0	Yes	+$5,022	01-08 19:34
will gold close between 4300 and 4400 at the end of 2025 774 377	1	$22.3K	0	22,334	-22,334	Yes	-$22	01-01 10:32
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic	8	$22.2K	24,621	20,044	+4,577	Andrey Rublev	-$7,210	04-18 12:55
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	41	$21.6K	18,050	18,050	+0	No	+$15	04-20 14:58
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	11	$21.4K	15,095	15,095	+0	No	+$3,097	08-30 12:07
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	58	$20.9K	17,007	17,007	+0	Yes	+$1,146	01-21 20:32
atp augeral djokovi 2026 07 07	10	$20.6K	18,313	18,313	+0	Novak Djokovic	-$733	07-07 21:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 08:53:16	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	1,107	92¢	$1,018	0xfe41ee…
10-28 04:23:13	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	1,325	17¢	$226	0x66eb7d…
10-28 04:23:04	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	233	34¢	$79	0x475040…
10-28 04:22:56	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	9¢	$182	0x5a40e1…
10-27 06:53:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,000	53¢	$526	0x41d373…
10-26 18:12:54	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	2,598	80¢	$2,072	0x2f1c7f…
10-26 14:14:08	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	58¢	$580	0x6b0f50…
10-26 00:41:30	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x323fc2…
10-26 00:21:44	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x41406b…
10-25 23:50:51	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	233	72¢	$168	0xb98d5b…
10-25 23:50:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	750	98¢	$737	0x41546f…
10-25 22:30:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	411	74¢	$303	0xa9afe8…
10-25 22:30:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	339	74¢	$249	0x64a632…
10-25 22:03:02	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	894	55¢	$492	0xcadb24…
10-25 21:57:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	101	55¢	$56	0xfa96e7…
10-25 21:57:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x65af1a…
10-25 18:01:32	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xf4cd3b…
10-25 14:47:24	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x9fbac0…
10-25 14:47:21	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0xa38a14…
10-25 09:46:59	Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lukas Neumayer vs Titouan Droguet	Titouan Droguet	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0x76513f…
10-25 07:15:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	325	45¢	$146	0x170039…
10-24 16:27:48	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	3,885	95¢	$3,684	0x8467ec…
10-17 18:33:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x026ba1…
10-17 18:33:21	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	158	100¢	$158	0xbbaa7b…
10-17 18:33:20	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	718	100¢	$717	0x024fe1…
10-17 17:51:56	Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	159	69¢	$109	0x32a977…
10-17 17:50:33	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	120	92¢	$111	0xab5432…
10-17 17:46:36	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	718	81¢	$582	0x5588eb…
10-17 16:14:08	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	BUY	259	64¢	$166	0x65efce…
10-17 16:13:32	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	SELL	757	100¢	$756	0x0c5817…
10-17 14:27:26	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	757	78¢	$590	0x82dc30…
10-17 12:08:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	45¢	$900	0x04615d…
10-17 12:06:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,564	96¢	$1,505	0xf40170…
10-15 08:33:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0x25663d…
10-15 08:33:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,054	75¢	$3,790	0xcc688e…
10-14 17:07:13	iran oman hormuz agreement by november 30	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x3c4a06…
10-14 16:44:00	iran oman hormuz agreement by november 30	No	BUY	95	73¢	$69	0x919e89…
10-14 12:41:35	iran oman hormuz agreement by november 30	No	BUY	292	73¢	$213	0xa9520d…
10-14 12:40:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,501	57¢	$4,275	0x480fb2…
10-03 18:43:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7,501	83¢	$6,225	0x5d3afb…
09-19 04:58:25	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	598	62¢	$371	0xc45a0a…
09-19 04:49:43	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	1,358	59¢	$800	0xa9aee9…
09-19 04:47:51	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	966	60¢	$575	0x0e5d68…
09-19 04:39:54	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xd7e618…
09-19 04:38:33	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x0baea5…
09-19 04:32:33	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x1fc98a…
09-19 04:31:43	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	831	55¢	$457	0xf3d64f…
09-19 04:23:12	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	SELL	1,263	54¢	$682	0xd13c91…
09-19 04:22:18	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	SELL	3,258	54¢	$1,759	0x2ac01f…
09-19 04:15:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	705	69¢	$486	0x088a32…
09-19 04:14:03	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in september 2026 from september 18	No	BUY	3,245	62¢	$2,000	0x3cc4ce…
09-19 04:13:21	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	No	SELL	1,300	86¢	$1,119	0xc8f812…
09-19 04:12:58	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	No	SELL	1,920	73¢	$1,403	0x9a8b17…
09-17 08:56:49	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xd1f4f5…
09-17 07:57:52	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xe9f5df…
09-17 07:57:48	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	772	63¢	$487	0xb4fbf3…
09-17 07:57:48	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0x20b114…
09-17 05:11:30	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0x99535e…
09-17 05:11:27	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x9d196e…
09-17 04:35:51	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	2,313	63¢	$1,457	0xe77b12…
09-15 19:51:16	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	4,521	84¢	$3,797	0x526b5c…
09-09 07:30:10	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	No	SELL	140	70¢	$98	0x34b13c…
09-09 04:47:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	880	79¢	$695	0x7d61cf…
09-08 15:35:43	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	107	66¢	$71	0xf34c3f…
09-08 15:20:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0x1eae35…
09-08 15:19:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	119	76¢	$90	0x4544be…
09-08 15:19:04	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	599	76¢	$455	0x263f9c…
09-08 08:00:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	1,400	76¢	$1,064	0x27ad8c…
09-08 06:36:15	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	No	BUY	660	76¢	$500	0x2ae495…
09-08 05:42:55	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	No	BUY	1,400	74¢	$1,036	0x9b537d…
09-07 14:15:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	No	BUY	24	81¢	$20	0x440fbe…
09-07 11:38:22	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	No	BUY	1,276	81¢	$1,033	0x143982…
08-31 00:07:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	6,723	69¢	$4,639	0x642eb9…
08-31 00:03:49	will bitcoin reach 80k in august 2026 from august 28	No	SELL	1,600	79¢	$1,269	0xca7d86…
08-31 00:03:42	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?	No	SELL	2,539	94¢	$2,399	0xebfd1a…
08-30 16:59:45	Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	1,359	75¢	$1,019	0x8ff354…
08-30 16:52:45	Manchester United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Ipswich Town FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	4,286	70¢	$3,000	0xc8c988…
08-30 15:01:40	Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)	Ipswich Town FC	BUY	2,700	72¢	$1,944	0xf03839…
08-30 14:59:16	will bitcoin dip to 75k in august 2026	No	SELL	3,356	96¢	$3,207	0xcdfa99…
08-30 14:58:54	Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	SELL	1,370	99¢	$1,356	0x065ebf…
08-30 14:58:04	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1,497	100¢	$1,496	0x5c7ff4…
08-30 14:42:07	Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,497	63¢	$936	0x92ae40…
08-30 14:35:01	Chelsea FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2,857	70¢	$2,000	0x60838f…
08-30 14:32:42	Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	SELL	1,803	94¢	$1,695	0x65b823…
08-30 14:11:45	Chelsea FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Brighton & Hove Albion FC O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	1,923	52¢	$1,000	0xffe1c6…
08-30 14:02:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	1,286	70¢	$900	0x76a299…
08-30 13:55:15	Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)	Brighton & Hove Albion FC	BUY	1,803	61¢	$1,100	0x419c6b…
08-30 13:27:09	Chelsea FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	676	37¢	$250	0x4d9363…
08-30 13:23:33	Chelsea FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	833	36¢	$300	0x4d425e…
08-30 13:07:09	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	1,710	64¢	$1,100	0xef728e…
08-30 12:35:21	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0xc52d84…
08-30 12:35:19	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x888db6…
08-30 12:34:48	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	27	59¢	$16	0x4d16f2…
08-30 12:29:27	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	70	59¢	$41	0x013c83…
08-30 12:08:42	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xde709e…
08-30 12:08:06	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xdf9c17…
08-30 12:07:13	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	SELL	6,195	96¢	$5,919	0xfbbd7f…
08-30 12:06:43	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026 from august 29	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x095d30…
08-30 12:05:36	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	SELL	466	96¢	$450	0x168cc4…
08-30 09:02:00	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	583	70¢	$408	0x813b3b…