Ill-Informed-Serial — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$164

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.2%

Resolved

598

Trades

1,117

lifetime

Volume

$8.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 05-26 08:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 39% +$194

Sports

1% 100% +$11

Other

1% 14% -$32

Tech

0% 0% -$9

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-26).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 15:40 UTC	2	$356	376	349	+26	Up	+$362	04-02 15:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2PM ET	9	$226	211	211	+0	Down	-$10	05-06 19:52
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	4	$134	94	94	+0	No	+$51	05-26 08:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-13 11:20 UTC	3	$134	148	120	+28	Down	+$113	04-13 11:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 23:15 UTC	4	$127	168	141	+27	Up	+$109	04-09 23:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 16:30 UTC	4	$119	95	90	+5	Up	+$64	04-03 16:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	10	$96	152	137	+16	Down	-$4	05-08 14:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	3	$79	116	62	+53	Down	+$32	05-07 20:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 13:10 UTC	3	$72	90	0	+90	Down	-$1	04-24 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	3	$71	121	88	+33	Up	+$3	05-07 18:03
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	7	$71	520	476	+44	No	+$11	04-28 21:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 23:30 UTC	2	$69	62	59	+4	Up	+$52	04-01 23:36
bitcoin above 76k on april 14	5	$65	527	438	+89	No	+$15	04-14 02:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 00:35 UTC	5	$54	65	62	+4	Down	+$28	04-10 00:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	5	$54	56	56	+0	Up	+$8	05-08 23:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 22:00 UTC	4	$52	65	18	+47	Up	-$15	04-10 22:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 22:50 UTC	3	$49	52	29	+23	Down	+$10	04-18 22:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 21:20 UTC	3	$49	55	34	+21	Up	+$20	04-10 21:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 12:55 UTC	3	$48	40	38	+2	Up	+$30	04-17 13:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	4	$46	79	37	+41	Down	-$14	05-14 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	4	$45	72	14	+58	Up	-$25	05-12 14:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 22:05 UTC	3	$44	60	29	+30	Up	+$16	04-15 22:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 15:15 UTC	3	$44	36	34	+2	Up	+$26	04-04 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	4	$43	38	31	+8	Down	+$13	04-25 11:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 16:15 UTC	3	$42	40	22	+17	Up	+$3	04-11 16:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-11 15:35 UTC	5	$41	41	21	+20	Up	+$2	04-11 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 17:30 UTC	5	$40	100	0	+100	Down	+$7	04-22 17:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 13:10 UTC	3	$39	31	30	+2	Down	+$21	04-21 13:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 23:40 UTC	2	$39	31	30	+2	Down	+$21	04-01 23:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 14:15 UTC	3	$39	36	25	+12	Down	+$10	04-14 14:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-26 08:52:48	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	94	98¢	$93	0x2641d5…
05-14 16:59:08	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	26	45¢	$12	0x9a75fb…
05-14 16:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0xa8a17d…
05-14 16:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x0616de…
05-14 16:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x16fc3c…
05-14 16:32:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0x7027f9…
05-14 16:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0xe93128…
05-14 16:30:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x886dec…
05-14 16:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	44¢	$0	0xfcb4d1…
05-14 16:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xc6701f…
05-14 16:10:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xaedad7…
05-14 10:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xda3f69…
05-14 10:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xad9d83…
05-14 10:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0xc0087f…
05-14 10:21:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x4ec9be…
05-14 10:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	37	43¢	$16	0xe613e0…
05-14 10:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2ab80f…
05-14 10:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xa761eb…
05-14 10:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xb9513f…
05-14 08:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x8e021c…
05-14 08:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf3d99c…
05-14 07:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xe6d2e3…
05-13 17:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xe2790b…
05-13 17:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x568ec7…
05-13 17:22:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Down	SELL	24	20¢	$5	0xdda9d6…
05-13 17:02:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xb699f0…
05-13 16:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x196d26…
05-13 16:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x28feae…
05-13 16:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb05659…
05-13 15:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0xf8b624…
05-13 15:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x05be52…
05-13 15:46:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7a6752…
05-13 15:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xe3e4f1…
05-13 13:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x8272f8…
05-13 13:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x7834c4…
05-13 12:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2b7849…
05-12 21:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x06f1ba…
05-12 19:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x59586d…
05-12 19:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x74fed6…
05-12 18:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xb828c3…
05-12 18:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x3d5f86…
05-12 16:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x792b9c…
05-12 15:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa37724…
05-12 15:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4f4ffb…
05-12 15:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc5b880…
05-12 15:05:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9f91b7…
05-12 15:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfc1768…
05-12 14:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x262ebf…
05-12 14:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0x5b6eb3…
05-12 14:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7d15bf…
05-12 14:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xa3e36f…
05-12 13:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x41f8d3…
05-12 13:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	24	63¢	$15	0xc145a5…
05-12 13:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x2e623f…
05-12 13:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4c3a3b…
05-12 12:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xf820fb…
05-12 07:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x02efee…
05-12 07:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdacc1b…
05-12 07:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xe953df…
05-12 07:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x283ee5…
05-11 20:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x22a22b…
05-11 20:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x65ba51…
05-11 20:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x8dd22e…
05-11 20:12:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x775b01…
05-11 20:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET	Down	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xb62da1…
05-11 18:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x8341b1…
05-11 18:05:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe50cbe…
05-11 17:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd406d1…
05-11 16:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xe3ea47…
05-11 16:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x5fe42a…
05-11 16:42:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0xad61f9…
05-11 16:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe85ba5…
05-11 16:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x61bb62…
05-11 16:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x535827…
05-11 16:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x4875b2…
05-11 16:15:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xaf5625…
05-11 12:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x45eb4b…
05-11 12:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xeb80c7…
05-11 12:15:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	18	31¢	$5	0xd8e5bf…
05-11 12:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xfe1b14…
05-11 12:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xfccf9e…
05-11 12:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xa8b8fb…
05-11 09:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1636b9…
05-11 09:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x1e6dcd…
05-11 08:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x71c96c…
05-11 08:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd91479…
05-11 08:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0xe52c91…
05-11 08:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xb5f389…
05-11 08:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x828a87…
05-11 03:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xdfe3ea…
05-10 21:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xa96fb1…
05-10 21:46:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x884988…
05-10 21:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x9e852d…
05-10 21:41:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	18	92¢	$16	0x394806…
05-10 20:09:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x070a29…
05-10 18:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xa4a8c8…
05-10 18:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xfe1ed3…
05-10 18:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x8b91d4…
05-10 18:04:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	13	58¢	$8	0xcd330e…
05-10 17:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x5e2aad…