Murky-Sleepiness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$366.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$11.5K

Hit rate

73.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,827

lifetime

Volume

$3.46M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.89K

Open exposure

$139.5K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-27 20:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Politics

87% 21% +$762,013

Other

13% 0% -$395,186

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		+754,193	$150,992	18¢	$139.5K	-$11,466	06-05 14:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	151	$1.31M	800,780	800,780	+0	Yes	+$290,189	04-08 00:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	35	$692.5K	591,214	591,214	+0	Yes	+$487,524	03-02 19:51
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	61	$354.8K	231,500	231,500	+0	No	+$8,776	03-31 11:35
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	422	$233.0K	1,200,333	411,173	+789,160	No	-$229,354	05-29 04:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	226	$151.0K	754,193	0	+754,193	open	—	06-05 14:47
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	46	$109.5K	739,316	739,316	+0	No	-$63,508	03-11 18:17
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	76	$79.8K	594,500	0	+594,500	No	-$79,767	01-30 22:53
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	16	$65.5K	369,877	0	+369,877	Yes	+$304,352	02-25 16:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	143	$63.8K	1,075,263	2,196,133	-1,120,870	No	-$56,266	06-17 17:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	18	$55.9K	187,447	209,797	-22,350	Yes	-$48,053	03-30 20:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	188	$52.2K	550,988	0	+550,988	No	-$52,173	05-22 10:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	9	$32.7K	349,800	0	+349,800	No	-$32,728	01-28 08:17
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	50	$31.4K	195,891	0	+195,891	No	-$31,374	01-30 17:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	22	$28.7K	140,671	205,371	-64,700	No	-$8,964	03-10 09:28
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	13	$26.4K	115,400	115,400	+0	No	-$14,900	02-14 22:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	58	$16.6K	200,012	0	+200,012	No	-$16,556	04-22 07:56
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	13	$14.2K	104,500	0	+104,500	No	-$14,213	01-25 11:37
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	25	$13.1K	139,744	139,744	+0	No	-$9,103	06-17 17:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$13.0K	71,717	71,717	+0	No	-$7,408	03-27 08:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	7	$12.4K	111,695	111,695	+0	Yes	-$5,453	02-14 22:42
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	10	$12.0K	61,790	61,790	+0	No	-$6,030	02-08 09:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	64	$10.2K	50,270	50,270	+0	No	-$9,723	04-13 03:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	4	$9.9K	17,743	17,743	+0	Yes	-$3,864	04-05 02:41
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	5	$9.6K	118,000	336,299	-218,299	No	+$2,230	01-28 08:15
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$9.0K	17,600	17,600	+0	open	—	10-27 20:39
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	18	$8.8K	81,414	81,414	+0	No	-$7,509	02-01 09:03
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	11	$8.6K	107,900	0	+107,900	No	-$8,614	01-20 22:43
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	7	$8.2K	75,192	104,892	-29,700	No	-$2,582	02-04 22:46
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	31	$6.2K	125,700	312,266	-186,566	No	-$2,368	06-17 17:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	25	$4.8K	112,983	112,983	+0	No	-$4,360	05-22 10:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:39:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	17,529	29¢	$5,145	0x7351c2…
10-27 20:32:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	71	32¢	$23	0x650228…
10-27 17:55:17	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10,700	24¢	$2,568	0x429466…
10-27 15:56:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	6,900	19¢	$1,311	0x62bc6e…
06-17 17:11:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	373,914	0¢	$748	0x0be7a9…
06-17 17:08:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	0¢	$0	0x3ee328…
06-17 17:07:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	0¢	$0	0x629327…
06-17 17:07:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xb88a69…
06-17 17:07:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x0c7f95…
06-17 17:07:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5,193	0¢	$10	0x9caf31…
06-17 17:07:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x64b586…
06-17 17:07:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x4cc0d7…
06-17 17:07:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	0¢	$0	0xd1e030…
06-17 17:07:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20,728	0¢	$41	0x37f24e…
06-17 17:06:37	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12,625	0¢	$25	0xb2cf20…
06-17 17:05:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	92,888	0¢	$116	0xe03449…
06-17 17:05:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	311,667	0¢	$312	0xd7ed8f…
06-17 17:05:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	253,921	0¢	$254	0x7e45a2…
06-17 17:05:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	417,525	0¢	$418	0x390401…
06-17 17:03:50	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	118,432	0¢	$277	0x04d5af…
06-17 17:03:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	107	0¢	$0	0xcaae94…
06-17 17:03:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40,000	1¢	$311	0xac5c07…
06-17 17:03:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12,500	1¢	$77	0x293388…
06-17 17:02:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0x8beb62…
06-17 17:02:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	760	0¢	$2	0x7817df…
06-17 17:02:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,667	0¢	$3	0x001ac4…
06-17 17:02:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	550	0¢	$1	0xb6972d…
06-17 17:02:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	550	0¢	$1	0x057928…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	875	0¢	$2	0xcda3be…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,195	0¢	$2	0x9d974a…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	569	0¢	$1	0x5a1d98…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	750	0¢	$2	0x3bf3f7…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	750	0¢	$2	0x24b688…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	682	0¢	$1	0x1028c2…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x0e33fd…
06-17 17:02:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,195	0¢	$2	0x09edd0…
06-17 17:02:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	373,990	0¢	$748	0xe9ea73…
06-17 17:02:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	229,217	0¢	$641	0x9bf12c…
06-17 17:02:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	106,252	0¢	$456	0x1790ae…
06-11 14:29:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15,000	9¢	$1,335	0x2f175c…
06-11 14:28:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	9¢	$445	0x83c175…
06-11 14:28:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8,000	8¢	$677	0xb47679…
06-11 14:27:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12,000	8¢	$929	0xe24f54…
06-10 21:43:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	101,825	1¢	$916	0x23471d…
06-10 21:20:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40,000	1¢	$360	0x5e898d…
06-10 21:01:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	419	1¢	$4	0x77b8a7…
06-10 01:38:37	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$1	0x10dc7b…
06-09 23:57:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0xae992a…
06-09 20:19:51	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0xa261db…
06-09 19:36:21	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	800	1¢	$7	0x378c04…
06-09 18:32:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	222	1¢	$2	0xb286fd…
06-09 16:36:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	78	1¢	$1	0x5ffe46…
06-09 15:37:55	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x4e5ffc…
06-09 15:10:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32,933	1¢	$296	0xf2c452…
06-09 14:36:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x6ce170…
06-09 14:23:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4,430	1¢	$40	0x49b738…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	17,355	2¢	$365	0x7e9562…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13,284	2¢	$330	0x54821f…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	42,941	2¢	$694	0x3360bc…
06-09 14:22:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	26,164	1¢	$306	0x126f3b…
06-05 14:47:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7,682	16¢	$1,229	0x6d7665…
06-05 14:32:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0x266203…
06-05 14:32:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xaf9bb7…
06-05 13:16:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x8b458d…
06-05 13:09:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	16¢	$8	0x1ba895…
06-05 13:02:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x442375…
06-05 12:57:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	16¢	$14	0x5385f3…
06-05 12:56:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42,062	16¢	$6,730	0x818f51…
05-31 17:50:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,320	17¢	$564	0xc10db3…
05-31 17:50:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xeb7c13…
05-31 17:50:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4,729	17¢	$804	0x53f523…
05-31 17:49:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10,000	17¢	$1,700	0x67aac2…
05-31 17:47:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x0aba4d…
05-31 17:41:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xfad2a1…
05-31 17:40:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0x552466…
05-31 17:21:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	17¢	$9	0xf63783…
05-31 17:21:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	136	17¢	$23	0xab5683…
05-31 17:21:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	167	17¢	$28	0x2ae452…
05-31 17:13:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5,000	17¢	$850	0x33b0a9…
05-31 17:12:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,500	17¢	$425	0xf3e937…
05-31 16:55:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x439809…
05-31 16:55:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x8e7f39…
05-31 16:51:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	795	17¢	$135	0xb0a972…
05-31 16:49:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	17¢	$3	0x408b6d…
05-31 16:49:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0x767808…
05-31 16:49:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x293397…
05-31 16:48:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	41	17¢	$7	0xa93d01…
05-31 16:48:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0xe9d186…
05-31 16:48:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0x7c8cdc…
05-31 16:48:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xc21ece…
05-31 16:48:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x9d2ed9…
05-31 16:48:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$1	0x4e1f29…
05-31 16:48:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6d0b03…
05-31 16:48:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	17¢	$12	0x56cef5…
05-31 16:48:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	17¢	$170	0x07837d…
05-31 16:48:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xe55d84…
05-31 16:48:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0xe3867c…
05-31 16:48:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0xa5a7ae…
05-31 16:48:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x344178…
05-31 16:48:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	17¢	$0	0x3272f7…