Realized P&L
-$525
Unrealized P&L
+$449
Hit rate
7.1%
Resolved
354
Trades
16,893
lifetime
Volume
$190.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$8.13K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-28
last 10-29 20:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Other
60% 14% -$411
Politics
30% 16% -$46
Sports
8% 15% -$49
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$33
Crypto
1% 50% +$14
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
32 active days in 12wk • peak 1135 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +787 $620 75¢ $590 -$30 10-29 21:40
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes +518 $404 84¢ $433 +$29 10-29 17:28
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +418 $250 98¢ $407 +$157 10-21 19:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +674 $328 55¢ $368 +$39 10-29 17:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +590 $371 58¢ $345 -$25 10-29 19:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +469 $261 68¢ $317 +$56 10-29 09:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +399 $298 78¢ $312 +$14 10-25 22:52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +676 $358 46¢ $307 -$50 10-29 17:16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +423 $283 71¢ $300 +$17 10-29 15:45
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +555 $343 52¢ $291 -$52 10-29 10:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +302 $254 96¢ $291 +$38 10-24 16:54
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +355 $274 80¢ $283 +$8 10-24 16:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +410 $263 67¢ $275 +$11 10-28 18:51
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +350 $284 76¢ $264 -$20 10-29 17:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +500 $235 52¢ $262 +$27 10-26 06:17
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes +550 $230 48¢ $261 +$32 10-27 20:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +589 $224 42¢ $245 +$20 10-29 19:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +500 $271 48¢ $237 -$34 10-26 06:17
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? Yes +234 $158 98¢ $228 +$70 10-25 17:44
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +300 $242 76¢ $228 -$14 10-28 16:30
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? Yes +249 $229 90¢ $225 -$4 10-27 04:08
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +355 $196 59¢ $209 +$13 10-26 13:29
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +338 $187 60¢ $204 +$17 10-24 09:11
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +787 $174 25¢ $197 +$23 10-29 21:40
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +200 $184 92¢ $183 -$1 10-29 19:32
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +294 $163 62¢ $181 +$18 10-28 08:30
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes +334 $204 53¢ $177 -$26 10-28 09:29
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +321 $196 54¢ $173 -$23 10-29 19:06
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +202 $162 85¢ $172 +$10 10-25 03:16
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +169 $37 98¢ $166 +$129 10-29 14:28