Realized P&L
-$329
Unrealized P&L
+$221
Hit rate
6.5%
Resolved
234
Trades
14,576
lifetime
Volume
$161.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$6.66K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-28
last 10-27 01:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Other
61% 14% -$244
Politics
28% 18% -$39
Sports
9% 20% -$26
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$33
Crypto
1% 100% +$14
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 1135 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +637 $505 76¢ $488 -$17 10-24 19:38
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +539 $333 62¢ $337 +$4 10-25 17:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +497 $310 66¢ $326 +$16 10-26 03:07
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +418 $250 74¢ $311 +$61 10-21 19:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +399 $298 70¢ $282 -$16 10-25 22:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +302 $254 92¢ $279 +$26 10-24 16:54
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +355 $274 78¢ $275 +$1 10-24 16:16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +363 $242 74¢ $270 +$28 10-20 20:53
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +500 $271 50¢ $252 -$19 10-26 06:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +500 $235 50¢ $247 +$12 10-26 06:17
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes +355 $196 63¢ $224 +$27 10-26 13:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +358 $190 62¢ $223 +$33 10-26 22:16
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +338 $187 65¢ $220 +$32 10-24 09:11
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes +270 $207 80¢ $215 +$8 10-27 02:40
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes +540 $226 38¢ $202 -$24 10-25 17:52
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? Yes +234 $158 86¢ $202 +$45 10-25 17:44
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +250 $202 80¢ $199 -$3 10-22 10:11
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +246 $204 78¢ $191 -$13 10-22 15:50
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +306 $188 57¢ $176 -$12 10-23 13:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +498 $192 34¢ $172 -$20 10-26 03:07
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +202 $162 84¢ $171 +$9 10-25 03:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +330 $165 52¢ $170 +$5 10-26 03:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +330 $169 48¢ $160 -$9 10-26 03:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +200 $157 78¢ $157 +$0 10-23 13:55
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes +285 $174 55¢ $157 -$18 10-26 16:49
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No +189 $154 82¢ $154 +$0 10-26 17:42
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026? Yes +240 $109 63¢ $151 +$42 10-21 09:39
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +637 $138 24¢ $150 +$12 10-24 19:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? No +208 $142 72¢ $149 +$6 10-22 16:55
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +174 $144 85¢ $148 +$3 10-24 11:45