Real-Dud — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

294

lifetime

Volume

$40.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$137

Open exposure

$172

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-11 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% 100% +$1

Politics

41% 100% +$16

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No		+173	$169	99¢	$172	+$2	06-11 00:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	50	$12.4K	6,335	6,259	+76	open	—	03-08 04:25
trump out as president by march 31	20	$6.4K	3,268	3,268	+0	open	—	02-20 10:35
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	9	$1.5K	773	773	+0	open	—	02-17 14:52
2026 us senate election republican odds under 55 by march 31	1	$1.5K	1,528	0	+1,528	open	—	03-07 10:51
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$1.5K	1,524	0	+1,524	open	—	03-07 06:04
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$1.4K	680	680	+0	open	—	02-19 01:30
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	2	$1.4K	680	680	+0	open	—	02-18 03:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	6	$721	370	370	+0	open	—	05-12 11:59
Trump out as President by May 31?	4	$713	361	361	+0	open	—	05-04 19:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$699	709	555	+154	open	—	03-02 14:21
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$688	364	364	+0	Yes	+$1	04-13 09:59
will the dhs shutdown end between february 20 23 2026	1	$683	684	0	+684	open	—	02-23 02:04
will the us next strike iran on february 18 2026 et	1	$681	682	0	+682	open	—	02-21 08:21
will trump say obama during the state of the union address 686	1	$664	670	0	+670	open	—	02-25 03:25
Trump out as President by April 30?	8	$471	238	238	+0	open	—	04-23 16:51
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	4	$438	220	220	+0	open	—	01-09 17:05
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	7	$432	219	219	+0	open	—	04-20 01:44
will trump say great shape this week february 15	2	$372	379	0	+379	open	—	02-16 03:27
Trump out as President by June 30?	44	$367	186	186	+0	open	—	06-04 13:33
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$366	186	186	+0	open	—	05-13 13:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	2	$358	180	180	+0	open	—	04-27 14:31
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	2	$346	175	175	+0	open	—	04-15 03:12
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$315	170	160	+10	open	—	03-27 14:19
will trump say football this week february 15	1	$307	310	0	+310	open	—	02-16 03:26
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$303	153	151	+2	open	—	03-15 12:55
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	3	$295	149	149	+0	open	—	03-01 04:31
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$271	136	136	+0	open	—	03-27 14:16
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$256	130	130	+0	open	—	03-23 02:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	7	$236	121	121	+0	open	—	04-08 08:35
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$215	111	111	+0	open	—	01-20 08:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 00:11:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	173	98¢	$169	0x9f65a4…
06-10 10:52:13	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by june 15	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x9d22b1…
06-08 08:43:25	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0x482b86…
06-08 03:25:04	will anthropic ipo by june 30 2026	No	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0xc9c50e…
06-05 09:53:12	will anthropic ipo by june 30 2026	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x2153df…
06-05 09:48:16	will anthropic ipo by june 30 2026	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xec1782…
06-04 17:41:51	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xf5f8df…
06-04 13:33:22	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	140	99¢	$138	0xe3041b…
06-04 12:41:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x1347e2…
06-03 22:03:58	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xe214aa…
06-03 21:57:33	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb7c85e…
06-03 21:47:12	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc98d92…
06-03 21:45:42	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeef54d…
06-03 21:45:21	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6421dd…
06-03 21:45:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x153a92…
06-03 21:44:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xafab1b…
06-03 21:44:18	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x2b0b6e…
06-03 21:44:01	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x56a175…
06-03 21:44:01	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3ae314…
06-03 21:44:01	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x38c062…
06-03 21:44:01	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x236818…
06-03 21:44:00	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xbfa7da…
06-03 21:44:00	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x9aa43a…
06-03 21:43:58	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x4392b8…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xd3e4f7…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcc4233…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xc9075a…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xbdcb0c…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8ed5e5…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x78be64…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x427957…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x35ee30…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x1ebcb4…
06-03 21:43:55	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x079edc…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfb9834…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xe8e285…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x970f48…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x5f8471…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x5781a0…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5299ae…
06-03 21:43:54	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x165ce5…
06-03 21:43:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xac7b3b…
06-03 21:43:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x333c1e…
06-03 21:43:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2b4c2e…
06-03 21:43:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	45	98¢	$44	0x263a43…
06-03 21:43:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x03ed43…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8113da…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3de9e0…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x3c1fbb…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x19e569…
06-03 21:43:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x08e181…
05-24 14:31:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xd34202…
05-24 13:57:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x78b5ee…
05-22 12:34:59	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xfb953b…
05-22 11:55:26	Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x6c1c3d…
05-22 11:02:44	Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x80a744…
05-22 01:56:14	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x364e2a…
05-17 05:05:04	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc88819…
05-13 13:31:06	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	SELL	186	99¢	$184	0x1b2465…
05-13 05:11:34	Netanyahu out by May 31?	No	BUY	186	98¢	$183	0x672b44…
05-12 11:59:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	188	98¢	$185	0x304a6a…
05-10 05:54:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	188	97¢	$183	0xb089bf…
05-10 04:21:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	182	98¢	$178	0x4bbeff…
05-08 15:03:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0x347de5…
05-08 14:40:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	105	96¢	$101	0xcbb37e…
05-08 14:40:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x247f3f…
05-04 19:51:32	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	181	99¢	$179	0x4bff5e…
05-03 15:58:58	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	181	99¢	$179	0x7b8a01…
05-03 02:07:10	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$178	0xbea198…
04-30 15:38:44	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	180	98¢	$177	0x464ca8…
04-27 14:31:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0x8f15b3…
04-25 12:51:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$179	0x3b36d0…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	179	100¢	$178	0x42eb4b…
04-21 11:10:14	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	179	99¢	$177	0x6cedae…
04-20 01:44:16	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	179	99¢	$177	0x587491…
04-17 18:54:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x61bdc5…
04-16 09:37:04	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xae19a6…
04-16 09:36:48	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x1408f3…
04-15 16:11:08	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	179	99¢	$177	0x734d04…
04-15 03:12:32	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	No	SELL	175	99¢	$173	0x894751…
04-14 14:35:01	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	No	BUY	175	99¢	$173	0xc72df6…
04-13 09:59:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x83ba73…
04-13 09:57:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	88	94¢	$83	0xd46290…
04-13 09:45:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0x2ad9c3…
04-13 04:52:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x5d3f26…
04-13 04:52:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	37	94¢	$35	0x582521…
04-12 13:29:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	185	94¢	$174	0x7a9922…
04-11 08:11:05	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	179	95¢	$170	0xd87c0d…
04-11 06:10:27	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x714dae…
04-11 05:25:15	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0xfebf9f…
04-09 21:51:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	179	95¢	$169	0xed9f75…
04-08 13:55:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0xb46357…
04-08 08:35:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x6d7685…
04-08 08:22:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x367b4b…
04-07 22:37:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	103	97¢	$100	0x7c98f4…
04-07 11:53:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x15cca6…
04-06 19:57:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbd373f…
04-06 19:57:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	17	97¢	$17	0x1a8460…
04-06 13:07:47	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x029e6c…
04-05 02:44:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xdb3d52…